Srain Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 That is a mirror of the forecast 24 hours ago... lol. Huh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 So many awkward forecast adjustments with this one. The NHC must really hate this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Huh... You know, how mirror images are reversed a bit? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Tornado warning Southern part of Disney tourist area, Lake Buena Vista and Kissimee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 One of the worst forecasts by the NHC that I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Not their fault... NO ONE got it right EXCEPT the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Not their fault... NO ONE got it right EXCEPT the GFS. Even the GFS was off on timing. Actually, although scorned and hated, if not for a less than day long lack of confidence in his stated ideas about pattern recognition, JB was close to correct with his original and final forecast. Just that one in the middle, the near panic about ever changing Euro runs, that did him in. Despite horrid appearance of Debby, and less than stellar performance by the Euro, I am about glass 5/19th full optimistic that Debby will provide pages more excitement on the forum and at least TS watches in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Not their fault... NO ONE got it right EXCEPT the GFS. It had the right idea, but will it get the forecast right even this close out? Still some big differences in terms of location and time of landfall between the euro and gfs, but if convection continues to struggle near the center..it won't matter much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 One of the worst forecasts by the NHC that I have ever seen. They had to draw in a forecast somewhere in order to release the advisories, they did their best and missed. I don't have the knowledge to say it was a stupid mistake, I'm guessing based on the info they had it was a reasonable call. The discussions mentioned unusually low overall confidence and that a major track change could be required. As confidence goes down, obviously so does the value of the point track forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I have to say, I've been so preoccupied with other stuff that the last time I really checked out Debby was Saturday night when it was forecast to be a westward moving hurricane heading for Texas. Of course, now it's a broad, ill-defined tropical storm sloshing itself into the panhandle of Florida. Good news for Texas, but clearly less seductive for hurricane junkies (IE Josh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 You know, this may be the first time ever (at least that I can remember) that I have seen the GFS remain steady and the ECMWF come around after a while into agreement versus the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Looks like on radar and IR there is a bit of an increase in convection on the north side right now. Should be interesting to see what this does as we go through the day as this to me has been a FAY 2 and has done whatever it wants so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 They had to draw in a forecast somewhere in order to release the advisories, they did their best and missed. I don't have the knowledge to say it was a stupid mistake, I'm guessing based on the info they had it was a reasonable call. The discussions mentioned unusually low overall confidence and that a major track change could be required. As confidence goes down, obviously so does the value of the point track forecast. That, with the majority of the reliable globals, except the GFS, saying it would head West, and even some GFS ensemble members West, it would have taken super natural powers to forecast Florida And the slower than what might be optimal adjustment East with the track was to avoid "windshield wipers", sudden changes on each model run. I always suspected the GFS may be right, despite being the outlier, because I have seen cases like this where storms propagate in the shear-ward direction, with the center trying to follow the convection, but as an amateur on a bulletin board, I can have opinions that don't affect anyone, if I had WMO assigned responsibility for the entire Basin and the protection of lives and safety in the US, I probably would have followed the overwhelming model consensus as well. ETA: Our Red Tagger Phil, if memory serves on previous comments on Debby, probably had the best forecast from days out on Debby as anyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Let's remember that parts of North Florida (like the hills north of Tallahassee) are still undergoing extreme drought. They were 30 inches below normal in rainfall last year and, despite all the surrounding rain over the past month or so, didn't get in on the action and are below normal by 6 or 7 inches already this year. So far, Debby has only given that area a little over 2 inches of rain. So this thing needs to sit exactly where it is for a lot longer to help recoup that spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 You know, this may be the first time ever (at least that I can remember) that I have seen the GFS remain steady and the ECMWF come around after a while into agreement versus the other way around. Ya, it's pretty clear the GFS outperformed the Euro big time with this one. Not perfect by any means, but much, much better than the Euro. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Not their fault... NO ONE got it right EXCEPT the GFS. Alot of the forecast failure can be attributed to the NHC model hugging too much. It's almost like they don't see the actual storm based on their discussions, only the simulated ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Pesky facts. There appears to be a lot of drive by Monday morning quaterbacking going on. For those that had been following this disturbance for days, let's not forget... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Ya, it's pretty clear the GFS outperformed the Euro big time with this one. Not perfect by any means, but much, much better than the Euro. Interesting... GFS has been decent handling TCs over the last couple of years I thought...at least in the Atlantic basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 12Z Observations [attachment=66489] Are you sure you're not just posting the same image over and over again? You know, this may be the first time ever (at least that I can remember) that I have seen the GFS remain steady and the ECMWF come around after a while into agreement versus the other way around. I've seen it before with timing of fronts and location of CCB with winter storms, but never something quite this extreme. Looks like on radar and IR there is a bit of an increase in convection on the north side right now. Should be interesting to see what this does as we go through the day as this to me has been a FAY 2 and has done whatever it wants so far. I'm looking at that right now. Environment hasn't improved much in terms of moisture or shear since last night, so I'm wondering if it's more just a flash in the pan than a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Wow. You'd have no clue there was a tropical storm there just by looking at the WV: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html ........................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Looking a little better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Looking a little better? Not really since all the convection is over land. I believe the SSTs are no longer enough to sustain Debby. Also the convection will probably pull the circulation inland and finish her off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Does anyone have the original url to the image of NOAA's prediction path originally going into TX or LA ? Srain you might, if so please let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Does anyone have the original url to the image of NOAA's prediction path originally going into TX or LA ? Srain you might, if so please let me know. Click "Storm Archive" under the box for Debby on the NHC page, then "Graphics Archive". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Alot of the forecast failure can be attributed to the NHC model hugging too much. It's almost like they don't see the actual storm based on their discussions, only the simulated ones. Lol... I would like to see you do better than them on a regular basis. Looking a little better? . That convection is fed mostly by the daytime heating of the land. With that said, it's better than what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Annular! LOL jk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Looks like one of the mesovortices is close to making landfall. Also, most of the convection that has fired thus far is probably partially due to the frictional convergence occurring as winds are encountering the higher friction of land in Florida. You can see in the radar animation below there is a nearly stationary rainband that has developed as other convective activity is streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico and merging with the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Looks like one of the mesovortices is close to making landfall. Also, most of the convection that has fired thus far is probably partially due to the frictional convergence occurring as winds are encountering the higher friction of land in Florida. You can see in the radar animation below there is a nearly stationary rainband that has developed as other convective activity is streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico and merging with the band. Some good frontogenesis there as well, squeezing out all the juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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