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Post Tropical Cyclone Debby


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If you guys thought the GFS and ECMWF solutions were funny, the GGEM is downright hilarious.

It takes Debby across FL like both the GFS and ECMWF but then stalls it over the Gulf Stream for 5 days (72 - 180 hours). Thereafter Debby heads back southwest and strikes FL again and ends up in the same place it started by the end of the run (240 hours).

You can't make this stuff up.

http://raleighwx.ame...NAGGEMLoop.html

hahaha, never have seen a model do that before. And if this actually happens, I will crap my pants.

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Possible solution -- new storm forming east of DAB-JAX heads rapidly e.n.e., 50-kt TS by tonight off SC coast, remnants of Debby stay in Gulf drifting WSW, picking up energy from convection near Yucatan by late today, the two storms pull apart by this afternoon. Not from any model runs, just what it looks like.

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The 06z SHIPS initilized at 50 mph so that will probably be the max intensity for the next advisory. Its one thing to have a small 50 mph tropical cyclone that can quickly spin down given unfavorable conditions, but when you have a 300+ mile swath of TS conditions occurring over the Gulf of Mexico, its going to take some time for the entire circulation to spin down. Yes the winds will likely decrease, but as long as the system remains over open waters, friction will be relatively low and the system will only spin down slowly while devoid of convection.

I do agree that Debby has probably already peaked unless it can get out into the Atlantic. That would be a whole new ballgame.

Agree with all of this...

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The euro and GFS are still pretty bad with timing, even though the euro obviously came around to the GFS in terms of direction, will it steal one in terms of getting the timing correct?

Also, would NHC declare this post tropical if we continue to see a lack of convection around the center? I feel like they probably would of this were in the NATL.

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Lots of deep convection/cooling cloud tops off the Georgia/Eastern Florida Coast this morning.

I think the thing to watch today is for any breaks of sun destabilizing the environment today. Lots of shear in place obviously and even if we boost CAPE just a bit..it could cause a lot of storms to rotate. Something to watch and is a little concerning.

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Lots of deep convection/cooling cloud tops off the Georgia/Eastern Florida Coast this morning.

From CHS:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

OUR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH BUSIER TODAY AS A TYPICALLY TROUBLESOME

TRIO OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...

AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SPREAD OVER THE AREA. THE IMPULSE AND LOW

LEVEL JET EJECTING FROM TS DEBBY ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND MODELS

RAISE THE BAR ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF

PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY S OF CHARLESTON TODAY.

MODELS SHOW INCREASING BULK SHEAR AND 0-1KM HELICITY ALONG THE FAR

S GEORGIA COAST THIS MORNING BUT IT LOOKS A SATURATED COLUMN AND

WEAK OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RISKS FOR TORNADOES DOWN BUT

CERTAINLY NON-ZERO OVER SE GEORGIA.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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HPC:

...ERN GULF COAST REGION TO SE ATLC COAST...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL NEWD INTO THE

COASTAL SECTIONS OF GA/SC AS STORM DEBBY MEANDERS SLOWLY NWD THIS

PD. THE PCPN PATRN AROUND DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED WITH

SHEAR IN MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS..WITH EARLIER SWLY SHEAR HAVING

FORCED MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION OFF TO THE NE. THE BIG

CHALLENGE HERE IS HOW QUICKLY THE SHEAR RELAXES..IF IT DOES AT

ALL. STILL FAIRLY DEEP MSTR REMAINS OVER THE ERN GULF..SO EVEN

LOW TOP DVLPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING LOCALLY

HEAVY PCPN. THERE IS ACTUALLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN

MAINTAINING ASSYMETRIC PCPN PROFILE WITH MSTR FEEDER BANDS AND

MORE NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL N/E/SE OF

THE CIRCULATION. THE LONG DURATION INFLOW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE

FL PANHANDLE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO 24 HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN

EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. NE OF THIS REGION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR

HEAVY RAINS SETTING UP ALONG THE GA/SC COASTAL AREA AS DEEP MSTR

FROM DEBBY INTERACTS WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING RAPIDLY SWD FROM THE

MID ATLC REGION MON NIGHT. ENHANCED RT ENTRANCE REGION JET

DYNAMICS WITH AMPLIFYING NE UPR TROF COUPLED WITH DEEP TROP MSTR

AND FRONTAL CONVEGENCE COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY ENHANCED

post-32-0-60187700-1340627661_thumb.gif

post-32-0-08233200-1340627438_thumb.jpg

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it appears there is starting to be more banding around the center of rotation. I think it might look very different this afternoon.

Don't be fooled by early-morning visibles. They make even the most-sickly cyclone look healthy. The best indicator of the cyclone's convective vigor (besides radar) is IR imagery, and if you take a look, you'll see there's nothing happening anywhere near the center.

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Don't be fooled by early-morning visibles. They make even the most-sickly cyclone look healthy. The best indicator of the cyclone's convective vigor (besides radar) is IR imagery, and if you take a look, you'll see there's nothing happening anywhere near the center.

I agree, it looks terrible this morning. What I'm starting to see on radar is more rain starting to wrap around. Yesterday there was nothing on the west side but I think that might be beginning to change. Time will tell.

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Don't be fooled by early-morning visibles. They make even the most-sickly cyclone look healthy. The best indicator of the cyclone's convective vigor (besides radar) is IR imagery, and if you take a look, you'll see there's nothing happening anywhere near the center.

Exactly

post-32-0-02710300-1340628234_thumb.jpg

I agree, it looks terrible this morning. What I'm starting to see on radar is more rain starting to wrap around. Yesterday there was nothing on the west side but I think that might be beginning to change. Time will tell.

As the HPC pointed out, the SE Atlantic Coast will be the likely area for deeper convection near the frontal boundary. Near the surface low, there is nothing but low topped showers and the wind field is expending rapidly. It is my hunch Debby may well be a depression before the day is out.

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Via NOAA's National Ocean Service on Facebook...

National Ocean Service

The National Ocean Service's 'Storm QuickLook' has been activated for Tropical Storm Debby. This free online tool is a snapshot of near real-time coastal and weather observations. Find out how TS Debby is affecting the Gulf of Mexico coast here:

http://tidesandcurre...data/DEBBY.html

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I agree 100% that Debby is barely a tropical cyclone at best. Considering Debby's occluded/frontal look, I'm wondering whether Debby will eventually jump/reform to the ENE in the Atlantic just off the GA/NE FL coast (where the best low-level convergence is) in the next day or two.

The euro and GFS are still pretty bad with timing, even though the euro obviously came around to the GFS in terms of direction, will it steal one in terms of getting the timing correct?

Also, would NHC declare this post tropical if we continue to see a lack of convection around the center? I feel like they probably would of this were in the NATL.

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I agree 100% that Debby is barely a tropical cyclone at best. Considering Debby's occluded/frontal look, I'm wondering whether Debby will eventually jump/reform to the ENE in the Atlantic just off the GA/NE FL coast (where the best low-level convergence is) in the next day or two.

Been wondering the same thing. That would be Debby's best chance at surviving and strengthening. If that happens, there could be some threat to the Outer Banks.

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I agree 100% that Debby is barely a tropical cyclone at best. Considering Debby's occluded/frontal look, I'm wondering whether Debby will eventually jump/reform to the ENE in the Atlantic just off the GA/NE FL coast (where the best low-level convergence is) in the next day or two.

what would it do after that? I'd imagine drift back west, correct?

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL

1011 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2012

...Tropical Storm Debby to Impact the Region through Thursday...

...Tornado Watch until 2 PM EDT today for Central and Eastern Big

Bend and the Adjacent Waters...

...Flash Flood Watch for the Florida Big Bend Counties...

.NEAR TERM [Today]...

Visible satellite indicates that TS Debby is clearly moving to the

right of the most recent official forecast track and we anticipate

changes to that forecast with the next advisory. The current

satellite-derived movement is actually approximated by a consensus

of the global models...finally! It appears that the GFS had the

right idea all along. The present movement of the system signals

that the overall threat for our FL Panhandle zones west of Cape San

Blas is on a downward trend. Areas to the east will continue to see

a prolonged threat for heavy rain and possible flash flooding. See

the hydrology section below for details. The latest mesoanalysis

shows 0-3 km helicities around 300 across parts of the FL Big Bend.

A tornado watch remains in effect in the right front quadrant of

Debby and we will need to keep our eyes out for any spinners that

could produce tornadoes. In terms of forecast grid updates, we only

made a few changes this morning. We adjusted PoPs upward slightly

based on radar trends. We also went with predominant stratiform

precipitation as opposed to the typical shower and thunderstorm

wording. We did leave in isolated TS though.

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WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN

HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD HAS

BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD

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