MnWeatherman Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 If you guys thought the GFS and ECMWF solutions were funny, the GGEM is downright hilarious. It takes Debby across FL like both the GFS and ECMWF but then stalls it over the Gulf Stream for 5 days (72 - 180 hours). Thereafter Debby heads back southwest and strikes FL again and ends up in the same place it started by the end of the run (240 hours). You can't make this stuff up. http://raleighwx.ame...NAGGEMLoop.html hahaha, never have seen a model do that before. And if this actually happens, I will crap my pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Yeah, I knew I was seeing something fishy when I saw that GGEM run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Possible solution -- new storm forming east of DAB-JAX heads rapidly e.n.e., 50-kt TS by tonight off SC coast, remnants of Debby stay in Gulf drifting WSW, picking up energy from convection near Yucatan by late today, the two storms pull apart by this afternoon. Not from any model runs, just what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The 06z SHIPS initilized at 50 mph so that will probably be the max intensity for the next advisory. Its one thing to have a small 50 mph tropical cyclone that can quickly spin down given unfavorable conditions, but when you have a 300+ mile swath of TS conditions occurring over the Gulf of Mexico, its going to take some time for the entire circulation to spin down. Yes the winds will likely decrease, but as long as the system remains over open waters, friction will be relatively low and the system will only spin down slowly while devoid of convection. I do agree that Debby has probably already peaked unless it can get out into the Atlantic. That would be a whole new ballgame. Agree with all of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 euro and gfs have a pretty strong system crawling along the se coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Water is cooling down. More temp maps http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sea_temp.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Water is cooling down OK, this thing needs to die or cross FL into the Atlantic. Hate to see that heat content getting wasted on such crap. At least the W Gulf is OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 OK, this thing needs to die or cross FL into the Atlantic. Hate to see that heat content getting wasted on such crap. At least the W Gulf is OK. LOL!!! I'm with you Josh! And I'm sure that has something to do with the loss of intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The euro and GFS are still pretty bad with timing, even though the euro obviously came around to the GFS in terms of direction, will it steal one in terms of getting the timing correct? Also, would NHC declare this post tropical if we continue to see a lack of convection around the center? I feel like they probably would of this were in the NATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Lots of deep convection/cooling cloud tops off the Georgia/Eastern Florida Coast this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Lots of deep convection/cooling cloud tops off the Georgia/Eastern Florida Coast this morning. I think the thing to watch today is for any breaks of sun destabilizing the environment today. Lots of shear in place obviously and even if we boost CAPE just a bit..it could cause a lot of storms to rotate. Something to watch and is a little concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Lots of deep convection/cooling cloud tops off the Georgia/Eastern Florida Coast this morning. From CHS: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- OUR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH BUSIER TODAY AS A TYPICALLY TROUBLESOME TRIO OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE... AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SPREAD OVER THE AREA. THE IMPULSE AND LOW LEVEL JET EJECTING FROM TS DEBBY ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND MODELS RAISE THE BAR ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY S OF CHARLESTON TODAY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING BULK SHEAR AND 0-1KM HELICITY ALONG THE FAR S GEORGIA COAST THIS MORNING BUT IT LOOKS A SATURATED COLUMN AND WEAK OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RISKS FOR TORNADOES DOWN BUT CERTAINLY NON-ZERO OVER SE GEORGIA. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Sattelite looks 10x wrose than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Looks like the shear is forecast to weaken where it's sitting right now http://www.daculaweather.com/4_shear_forecast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 HPC: ...ERN GULF COAST REGION TO SE ATLC COAST... EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL NEWD INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GA/SC AS STORM DEBBY MEANDERS SLOWLY NWD THIS PD. THE PCPN PATRN AROUND DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED WITH SHEAR IN MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS..WITH EARLIER SWLY SHEAR HAVING FORCED MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION OFF TO THE NE. THE BIG CHALLENGE HERE IS HOW QUICKLY THE SHEAR RELAXES..IF IT DOES AT ALL. STILL FAIRLY DEEP MSTR REMAINS OVER THE ERN GULF..SO EVEN LOW TOP DVLPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY PCPN. THERE IS ACTUALLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN MAINTAINING ASSYMETRIC PCPN PROFILE WITH MSTR FEEDER BANDS AND MORE NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL N/E/SE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LONG DURATION INFLOW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO 24 HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. NE OF THIS REGION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINS SETTING UP ALONG THE GA/SC COASTAL AREA AS DEEP MSTR FROM DEBBY INTERACTS WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING RAPIDLY SWD FROM THE MID ATLC REGION MON NIGHT. ENHANCED RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WITH AMPLIFYING NE UPR TROF COUPLED WITH DEEP TROP MSTR AND FRONTAL CONVEGENCE COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY ENHANCED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 it appears there is starting to be more banding around the center of rotation. I think it might look very different this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The mesocyclone by St. Marys, Ga is more impressive than Debby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 it appears there is starting to be more banding around the center of rotation. I think it might look very different this afternoon. Don't be fooled by early-morning visibles. They make even the most-sickly cyclone look healthy. The best indicator of the cyclone's convective vigor (besides radar) is IR imagery, and if you take a look, you'll see there's nothing happening anywhere near the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Don't be fooled by early-morning visibles. They make even the most-sickly cyclone look healthy. The best indicator of the cyclone's convective vigor (besides radar) is IR imagery, and if you take a look, you'll see there's nothing happening anywhere near the center. I agree, it looks terrible this morning. What I'm starting to see on radar is more rain starting to wrap around. Yesterday there was nothing on the west side but I think that might be beginning to change. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I agree, it looks terrible this morning. What I'm starting to see on radar is more rain starting to wrap around. Yesterday there was nothing on the west side but I think that might be beginning to change. Time will tell. Don't hold your breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Don't be fooled by early-morning visibles. They make even the most-sickly cyclone look healthy. The best indicator of the cyclone's convective vigor (besides radar) is IR imagery, and if you take a look, you'll see there's nothing happening anywhere near the center. Exactly I agree, it looks terrible this morning. What I'm starting to see on radar is more rain starting to wrap around. Yesterday there was nothing on the west side but I think that might be beginning to change. Time will tell. As the HPC pointed out, the SE Atlantic Coast will be the likely area for deeper convection near the frontal boundary. Near the surface low, there is nothing but low topped showers and the wind field is expending rapidly. It is my hunch Debby may well be a depression before the day is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 12Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Via NOAA's National Ocean Service on Facebook... National Ocean Service The National Ocean Service's 'Storm QuickLook' has been activated for Tropical Storm Debby. This free online tool is a snapshot of near real-time coastal and weather observations. Find out how TS Debby is affecting the Gulf of Mexico coast here: http://tidesandcurre...data/DEBBY.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I agree 100% that Debby is barely a tropical cyclone at best. Considering Debby's occluded/frontal look, I'm wondering whether Debby will eventually jump/reform to the ENE in the Atlantic just off the GA/NE FL coast (where the best low-level convergence is) in the next day or two. The euro and GFS are still pretty bad with timing, even though the euro obviously came around to the GFS in terms of direction, will it steal one in terms of getting the timing correct? Also, would NHC declare this post tropical if we continue to see a lack of convection around the center? I feel like they probably would of this were in the NATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I agree 100% that Debby is barely a tropical cyclone at best. Considering Debby's occluded/frontal look, I'm wondering whether Debby will eventually jump/reform to the ENE in the Atlantic just off the GA/NE FL coast (where the best low-level convergence is) in the next day or two. Been wondering the same thing. That would be Debby's best chance at surviving and strengthening. If that happens, there could be some threat to the Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I agree 100% that Debby is barely a tropical cyclone at best. Considering Debby's occluded/frontal look, I'm wondering whether Debby will eventually jump/reform to the ENE in the Atlantic just off the GA/NE FL coast (where the best low-level convergence is) in the next day or two. what would it do after that? I'd imagine drift back west, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
99lsfm2 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1011 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2012 ...Tropical Storm Debby to Impact the Region through Thursday... ...Tornado Watch until 2 PM EDT today for Central and Eastern Big Bend and the Adjacent Waters... ...Flash Flood Watch for the Florida Big Bend Counties... .NEAR TERM [Today]... Visible satellite indicates that TS Debby is clearly moving to the right of the most recent official forecast track and we anticipate changes to that forecast with the next advisory. The current satellite-derived movement is actually approximated by a consensus of the global models...finally! It appears that the GFS had the right idea all along. The present movement of the system signals that the overall threat for our FL Panhandle zones west of Cape San Blas is on a downward trend. Areas to the east will continue to see a prolonged threat for heavy rain and possible flash flooding. See the hydrology section below for details. The latest mesoanalysis shows 0-3 km helicities around 300 across parts of the FL Big Bend. A tornado watch remains in effect in the right front quadrant of Debby and we will need to keep our eyes out for any spinners that could produce tornadoes. In terms of forecast grid updates, we only made a few changes this morning. We adjusted PoPs upward slightly based on radar trends. We also went with predominant stratiform precipitation as opposed to the typical shower and thunderstorm wording. We did leave in isolated TS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 attachment=66499:06252012 10 AM Debby 090914W5_NL_sm.gif That is a mirror of the forecast 24 hours ago... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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