thewxmann Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 These have been large tornadoes (although questions can be raised regarding intensity), not your typical tropical-induced spin-ups. Low LCLs helping with the size of these things prolly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Certainly not a bad environment for some supercells tonight per the 00z Tampa sounding. That's an awfully impressive sounding for tornadic supercells, aside from the obvious and expected weakness in terms of lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 From that long-track cell... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1134 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1000 PM TORNADO 2 NNW YEEHAW JUNCTION 27.72N 80.91W 06/24/2012 OSCEOLA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT OSCEOLA SHERIFF REPORTED MOTORIST OBSERVED SWIRLING WIND THEN FLYING TREE HIT VEHICLE CAUSING DAMAGE ON FLORIDA TURNPIKE SOUTHBOUND MM195 NEAR YEEHAW JUNCTION. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. 1000 PM TORNADO 1 WSW YEEHAW JUNCTION 27.69N 80.90W 06/24/2012 OSCEOLA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT FHP REPORTED DAMAGE TO TOLL PLAZA AND SEVERAL CARS IN EMPLOYEE PARKING LOT ON FL TURNPIKE NORTHBOUND NEAR MM193. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED ON RADAR. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1202 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1140 PM TORNADO 5 WNW PORT SAINT JOHN 28.51N 80.87W 06/24/2012 BREVARD FL PUBLIC PUBLIC SIGHTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF I-95 AND SR50. 1143 PM TORNADO 3 SW TITUSVILLE 28.55N 80.85W 06/24/2012 BREVARD FL PUBLIC PUBLIC SIGHTED BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT INTERSECTION OF I-95 AND SR50 EXIT 215. TREE LIMBS DOWN IN A PATH ON SR50 WEST OF I-95. (apologies for crap formatting - if one of the admins want to fix it, go right ahead) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Yea it looks like the GFS has given up on Debby getting picked up by the upper level trough and it pretty much gets trapped as the mid-level ridge builds over it. In fact its still drifting off the outer banks before truncation of the model at 192 hours lol. Wherever Debby decides to ultimately go, its probably going to be with us for quite some time, which is not that unusual for June/July type TCs that often meander across the southeast. Whether or not it stays over open water is the question at this point. Wild card is that Debby becomes a remnant during all that time it's drifting. Land is taking its toll big time, and there's no convection anymore. This could die quickly. Also it's over cold shelf waters, and it's making them way colder by stirring them up. Could be the reason we've seen convection shutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 There seems to be westward drift of what looks like the central circulation, about one degree west in the last three or four hours, along 28.5 N ... wonder if NHC will signal another rethink on track? (from "rainbow" IR flash animation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Water temperatures in Apalachicola. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=apcf1&meas=wtmp&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 There seems to be westward drift of what looks like the central circulation, about one degree west in the last three or four hours, along 28.5 N ... wonder if NHC will signal another rethink on track? (from "rainbow" IR flash animation) It's just 'meandering' right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Low LCLs helping with the size of these things prolly. Ehh yes and no. It undoubtedly helps, but there were some pretty significant tornadoes today methinks, especially given the TVS and TDS returns from a few of them. With some of the tornadoes also, you can tell just from pictures that their size isn't merely a byproduct of LCL heights. Case in point: http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/news/region_polk/Tornado-causes-damage-throughout-Polk-County-area Between the shape (rather sharp and cylindrical, not messy) of the funnel and those damage reports, that looks like at least high-EF1 or low-EF2, maybe even higher if those mobile homes were newer and built to FL code (which is for newer mobile homes to be built/strapped to withstand 130 MPH winds IIRC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I can't believe this is 60 mph. This is hands down, the weirdest storm I've ever tracked lol, and I've been doing this a lot of seasons now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 How long can this stay a TS if it stalls out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The ECMWF just caved to the GFS in taking it across Florida. This is going to be awkward seeing the NHC track being 180 degrees away from the direction it was 36 hours ago. This has been an extreme case on how downshear convection can significantly alter the track of a TC, especially when its in the COL between a ridge and a trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Hard to believe just 3 runs ago, it had Debby making landfall in S Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 06Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Winds aren't gusting above 30 mph in the Panhandle anymore, not much left to Debby on radar. It will be a tropical depression by noon at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Winds aren't gusting above 30 mph in the Panhandle anymore, not much left to Debby on radar. It will be a tropical depression by noon at this rate. I can't understand how they have this intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I can't understand how they have this intensifying. This excerpt from the NHC discussion blows my mind. The bolded part just doesn't make any sense to me dynamically. The sentence after that is ridiculous since land interaction and cold upwelling has been occurring for the past 24 hours or more. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP DRY SLOT TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADVECTS WESTWARD INTO THE INNER CORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE DEBBY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND OR COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE OCCURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Winds aren't gusting above 30 mph in the Panhandle anymore, not much left to Debby on radar. It will be a tropical depression by noon at this rate. The system still has a huge wind circulation... it will likely take substantially longer for it to spin down below TS strength than 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Whatever becomes of Debby is not certain but I see it doing well once it crosses Florida probably because it gets away from the ULL's in the western gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The system still has a huge wind circulation... it will likely take substantially longer for it to spin down below TS strength than 12 hours. Final recon pass had the strongest winds of 60 mph (at 1.5 km) well away from the center, nothing above 50 mph anywhere near the center (i.e. within the real inner circulation). Without convection I don't think it'll take that long for a maybe 45 mph tropical storm to spin down to a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 The system still has a huge wind circulation... it will likely take substantially longer for it to spin down below TS strength than 12 hours. Thinking the same. If recon was out there I'm sure they would probably find enough to keep it at TS strength with not much of a rise in pressure yet. Nonetheless it looks terrible with almost minimal convection anywhere near the main circulation. I thought the forecast last night after the flip flop by the 0z Euro was going to create enough headaches. That might be a cakewalk compared to the upcoming one with the latest flip flop by both the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Heck with all the rain she's dumping on Florida, she's going to be over water the whole time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Heck with all the rain she's dumping on Florida, she's going to be over water the whole time! Debby must be Fay's sister, the busted forecasts and flooding the crap out of parts of Florida feels the same, as well as the super slow movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 She's certainly doing her part in augmenting 2012's tornado statistics, considering how below average May and June have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I don't see Debby being a TD in 12 hr but I agree that she's probably peaked. There has got to be some type of ridiculous upwelling that has occurred over shallow shelf waters. The lack of convection during the diurnal maximum is telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Thinking the same. If recon was out there I'm sure they would probably find enough to keep it at TS strength with not much of a rise in pressure yet. Nonetheless it looks terrible with almost minimal convection anywhere near the main circulation. I thought the forecast last night after the flip flop by the 0z Euro was going to create enough headaches. That might be a cakewalk compared to the upcoming one with the latest flip flop by both the Euro and GFS. Ironically for the first time... both the 00z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in great agreement, although the GFS is still a bit faster with the eventual track. The GFS ensembles are now split once again, with half taking it into the Atlantic, with the other half taking it to LA or somewhere along the northern Gulf coastline. I don't envy the NHC with this forecast at all. Its rare to see guidance this lost when it comes to where a TC might track. Not just for one run, but for the last 2-3 days. I really thought we would have a lot more agreement at this point, but if the storm continues to follow the COL, all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 A whole new can of worms open up for the west Atlantic in the extended operational runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Final recon pass had the strongest winds of 60 mph (at 1.5 km) well away from the center, nothing above 50 mph anywhere near the center (i.e. within the real inner circulation). Without convection I don't think it'll take that long for a maybe 45 mph tropical storm to spin down to a TD. The 06z SHIPS initilized at 50 mph so that will probably be the max intensity for the next advisory. Its one thing to have a small 50 mph tropical cyclone that can quickly spin down given unfavorable conditions, but when you have a 300+ mile swath of TS conditions occurring over the Gulf of Mexico, its going to take some time for the entire circulation to spin down. Yes the winds will likely decrease, but as long as the system remains over open waters, friction will be relatively low and the system will only spin down slowly while devoid of convection. I do agree that Debby has probably already peaked unless it can get out into the Atlantic. That would be a whole new ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 If you guys thought the GFS and ECMWF solutions were funny, the GGEM is downright hilarious. It takes Debby across FL like both the GFS and ECMWF but then stalls it over the Gulf Stream for 5 days (72 - 180 hours). Thereafter Debby heads back southwest and strikes FL again and ends up in the same place it started by the end of the run (240 hours). You can't make this stuff up. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTNAGGEMLoop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The 06z SHIPS initilized at 50 mph so that will probably be the max intensity for the next advisory. Its one thing to have a small 50 mph tropical cyclone that can quickly spin down given unfavorable conditions, but when you have a 300+ mile swath of TS conditions occurring over the Gulf of Mexico, its going to take some time for the entire circulation to spin down. Yes the winds will likely decrease, but as long as the system remains over open waters, friction will be relatively low and the system will only spin down slowly while devoid of convection. I do agree that Debby has probably already peaked unless it can get out into the Atlantic. That would be a whole new ballgame. I think the presence of Florida is speeding up the frictional spin down a great deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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