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Post Tropical Cyclone Debby


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TLH had 2-4" total last night and now HPC just pegged them with two feet.. :popcorn:

p120i00.gif

The storm is slow moving but there is no persistent convection in any one spot. If HPC goes 20+ in any one area they will likely end up wackin it in San Diego with the Euro and NHC.

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Some pretty good rotation near Lake Washington NW of Melbourne.

A rough day for Florida dealing with quick-strike tornadoes.

They look similar to the DC area ones earlier this month.

I have seen about twice as many of these cells offshore as I have onshore so the Gulf maybe a better envirnment for them than land.

Could probably chase tommorrow by going to a spot near the beach with a view looking out into the gulf, and waiting.

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They look similar to the DC area ones earlier this month.

I have seen about twice as many of these cells offshore as I have onshore so the Gulf maybe a better envirnment for them than land.

Could probably chase tommorrow by going to a spot near the beach with a view looking out into the gulf, and waiting.

BIg difference today is tight gate-to-gate signatures and TDSs.

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MLB cell.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTH CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SHARPES...TITUSVILLE AIRPORT...

TITUSVILLE...PORT SAINT JOHN...MIMS...LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP...

COCOA...

EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

* AT 1114 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LONE

CABBAGE FISH CAMP...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

CANAVERAL GROVES...TITUSVILLE.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADIC DAMAGE IN OSCEOLA

COUNTY. IT WILL AFFECT MOTORISTS DRIVING ON HIGHWAY 520 WEST OF

COCOA...THE BEACHLINE 528 EXPRESSWAY...AND INTERSTATE 95 NEAR PORT

SAINT JOHN AND TITUSVILLE.

THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS

DEVELOPING TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW...SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES!

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It is actually quite a shift in position even compared to the 18z run. It looks to be about 200 miles farther southwest at the time you mentioned.

Part of the reason why people shouldn't be quick to judge or call out a forecast when there is a lot to be hashed out.

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These have been large tornadoes (although questions can be raised regarding intensity), not your typical tropical-induced spin-ups.

injection of dry air that's hurt the sys overall probably helped with the tornadoes

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I wonder if that's also why they've been so photogenic? Florida TC induced tornadoes are usually short lived and rain wrapped.

Also, just sat through an hour of storm footage and did not see anything that would rate higher than EF1, although there was no coverage of St. Pete, which sounded more significant.

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Certainly the biggest tornado event in FL since 3/7/2008. Less deadly and damaging (although I bite my tongue because it's not over yet) but much more widespread.

Actually, HRRR looks kinda bad for tomorrow morning too. Those cells look discrete and over some of the same areas that got hit today.

post-378-0-54150600-1340597302_thumb.png

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Certainly the biggest tornado event in FL since 3/7/2008. Less deadly and damaging (although I bite my tongue because it's not over yet) but much more widespread.

Actually, HRRR looks kinda bad for tomorrow morning too. Those cells look discrete and over some of the same areas that got hit today.

post-378-0-54150600-1340597302_thumb.png

i havent looked at numbers (yet) but could see debby rise on the lists of prolific tornado producers if it limps along. i guess it'll depend on how the structure changes and where it goes still etc.

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For what ever it is worth which is not much right now per 00z GFS we will be tracking/ discussing about Debby for a long time to come. also looks like it turns her into a hurricane into the Atlantic now with a rather nice H5. if Debby does eventually get into the Atlantic it would be rather interesting since ocean temps are much warmer then normal. Anyhow Right now though lets focus on Debby in the gulf first lol.

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Certainly the biggest tornado event in FL since 3/7/2008. Less deadly and damaging (although I bite my tongue because it's not over yet) but much more widespread.

Actually, HRRR looks kinda bad for tomorrow morning too. Those cells look discrete and over some of the same areas that got hit today.

post-378-0-54150600-1340597302_thumb.png

Certainly not a bad environment for some supercells tonight per the 00z Tampa sounding.

TBW.gif

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For what ever it is worth which is not much right now per 00z GFS we will be tracking/ discussing about Debby for a long time to come. also looks like it turns her into a hurricane into the Atlantic now with a rather nice H5. if Debby does eventually get into the Atlantic it would be rather interesting since ocean temps are much warmer then normal. Anyhow Right now though lets focus on Debby in the gulf first lol.

Yea it looks like the GFS has given up on Debby getting picked up by the upper level trough and it pretty much gets trapped as the mid-level ridge builds over it. In fact its still drifting off the outer banks before truncation of the model at 192 hours lol. Wherever Debby decides to ultimately go, its probably going to be with us for quite some time, which is not that unusual for June/July type TCs that often meander across the southeast. Whether or not it stays over open water is the question at this point.

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