Indystorm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Here in Bradenton Fla, just South of Tampa Bay, it has been insane for the past couple hrs. Just got back from a ride to the beach, MAJOR flooding across the roads, huge waves in the Gulf, at least 10ft or so. Winds are gusting to about 35 - 40mph or so, I saw several trees down here in town. VERY surprised that we're not under Tropical Storm watches or even warnings, it's really bad out, comes in waves where it'll be pretty calm for a bit, then torrential rain and really gusty winds will hit. Still not at high tide either, I'll be surprised if anyone can even get to the beaches soon, I imagine the Sunshine Skyway must be a pretty brutal drive right about now. Just heard om the local news that Law Enforcement has just asked for people NOT to come out to Anna Maria Island due to flooding...that's where I just was 1/2 hr ago. Thanks for the update. I can remember being in Tampa at the Hyatt in Oct. 1996 for Tropical storm Josephine when it came in near Apalachee Bay. My only experience of a tropical system and similar to what you are currently describing from Debby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Talk about a slow mover The NHC is still with the Euro sink or swim. The HPC and local NWS offices have followed suit. You would think that the GFS would receive more due recognition by now for Debby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 In a way, the exact location of the center is irrelevant for this storm, for anyone north or east of the center is in line for excessive rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I'm in Palm Harbor. It hasn't stopped raining once all day. The intensity of the rain comes and goes but most of the time it has been an absolute deluge. Been a little gusty in some squalls but the rain is the real story. I don't know how many inches we've had but it's a lot. I'm in a rental house and we've had several leaks in the roof and the ceiling just collapsed in the bathroom. yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CV 60 USS Saratoga Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I've been watching local news for a couple hrs now, many tornadoes reported all over the area, one tornado death confirmed so far. They just said on the news that that is the first tornado death in Fla. since at least 2006. We're still getting lots of heavy off and on rain and wind, they closed the Skyway Bridge down about an hr. ago. Reports of over 16ft waves just offshore of the Gulf Coast of Fla. LOTS of damage and flooding reports all over the Tampa Bay area. Looks like another pretty heavy band forming just offshore. My first Tropical Storm experience since Josephine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 2 NW LAKE PLACID HIGHLANDS FL 2733 8139 *** 1 FATAL *** 1 FATALITY AND 10 DAMAGED HOMES REPORTED IN THE 600 BLOCK OF LAKE JUNE ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON ROTATION DETECTED ON RADAR. (TBW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I've been watching local news for a couple hrs now, many tornadoes reported all over the area, one tornado death confirmed so far. They just said on the news that that is the first tornado death in Fla. since at least 2006. We're still getting lots of heavy off and on rain and wind, they closed the Skyway Bridge down about an hr. ago. Reports of over 16ft waves just offshore of the Gulf Coast of Fla. LOTS of damage and flooding reports all over the Tampa Bay area. Looks like another pretty heavy band forming just offshore. My first Tropical Storm experience since Josephine. No, 2008. 2007 also had a significant event that killed 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 2 NW LAKE PLACID HIGHLANDS FL 2733 8139 *** 1 FATAL *** 1 FATALITY AND 10 DAMAGED HOMES REPORTED IN THE 600 BLOCK OF LAKE JUNE ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON ROTATION DETECTED ON RADAR. (TBW) I was kind of surprised this morning when SPC didn’t even have a slight risk hoisted for florida. You would think after the amount of tornadic activity yesterday a slight risk would have been warranted for today. They did add in a slight risk with their latest package. I’m no expert though so I’ll assume they had good reason to not include a slight risk this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I just got done driving through much of that rain in Florida on my way back to Columbus, GA from Sarasota, FL. I left before the worst of it hit. Here's a view of Siesta Key Beach, the one I went to a few days ago... The Lifeguard towers are typically 20 ft from the water's edge... https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=473573892657390&set=a.269022749779173.85219.268760379805410&type=1&theater Here's another of else where on Siesta Key: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=473572972657482&set=a.269022749779173.85219.268760379805410&type=1&theater The weekend meteorologist at ABC 7 in Sarasota went to Ringling Bridge, the one that leads to Longboat Key, and shot this video: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=479213778771809 I know some have said that the GFS didn't win completely, but I'd respectfully disagree. Yes, it did have a few solutions cutting it across Florida, but a good majority had it in the Eastern Gulf, which is where it is now. It never bit on the Texas solution like almost every other model did. It's done incredibly well this season versus the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I'm in Palm Harbor. It hasn't stopped raining once all day. The intensity of the rain comes and goes but most of the time it has been an absolute deluge. Been a little gusty in some squalls but the rain is the real story. I don't know how many inches we've had but it's a lot. I'm in a rental house and we've had several leaks in the roof and the ceiling just collapsed in the bathroom. yay. Been a steady moderate to at times heavy rain all day but only at 1.25" for the day at my home near downtown Orlando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 2 NW LAKE PLACID HIGHLANDS FL 2733 8139 *** 1 FATAL *** 1 FATALITY AND 10 DAMAGED HOMES REPORTED IN THE 600 BLOCK OF LAKE JUNE ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON ROTATION DETECTED ON RADAR. (TBW) Sad but not surprising. That area is mobile/modular home country and there were some pretty darn impressive circulations down there by TC tornado standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The lesson I learned from Debby is that if the models disagree, you should just take the model consensus and add up all the forecast track vectors to get the right answer. If half the models go left and half go right, the answer is 0, the storm stays exactly where it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Horrible looking storm now that i look at WV http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The lesson I learned from Debby is that if the models disagree, you should just take the model consensus and add up all the forecast track vectors to get the right answer. If half the models go left and half go right, the answer is 0, the storm stays exactly where it is Except that everything except the GFS was going left, as well as more than half the GFS ensembles. Can't blame the NHC for their initial forecast which seemed reasonable at the time. Plus, if they had taken the zero route, they would've had to take Debby straight into NOLA, which would've incited a media hype frenzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Horrible looking storm now that i look at WV http://www.ssd.noaa....tl/loop-wv.html Looks to be to much shear to get a good circulation going, also some dry air being filtered into the circulation from the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 16" of Rain estimated on the radar on the NE side of Tampa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The NHC is still with the Euro sink or swim. The HPC and local NWS offices have followed suit. You would think that the GFS would receive more due recognition by now for Debby. Sorry to single you out, but this constant second guessing of the NHC is getting old when it is lacking scientific reasoning of why you disagree. No one is above learning, and certainly not the specialists at the NHC. (Experts in any field, make their rise to the top by making mistakes along the way and learning from them.) So if you have reasons why the GFS is the ticket here, let's hear it. And perhaps while you are at it you draw for us a track forecast placing your positions on the NHC track map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Sad but not surprising. That area is mobile/modular home country and there were some pretty darn impressive circulations down there by TC tornado standards. Good call Tony. This is where my family hails from. Homes on Lake June are 1950's ranch style and modular mix. The fatality was in the community of Venus which is mainly mobile homes and was likely from a different tornado as this community is about 25 miles south of Lake Placid--and extremely sparsely populated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 As we debate the models, we've hardly noticed that this may turn out to be the most destructive storm hit on the U.S. in many years if the GFS track and speed verify. Some areas may get 20-30 inches rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Headed to Osprey in a week, just talked to my dad there and he said the winds didn't pick up until this afternoon, but he's had 8-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 That would make it the wettest TC-like entity for Florida since...October. As we debate the models, we've hardly noticed that this may turn out to be the most destructive storm hit on the U.S. in many years if the GFS track and speed verify. Some areas may get 20-30 inches rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 That would make it the wettest TC-like entity for Florida since...October. Lol, it's true Miami had 15 inches then and Key West a bit more. This could be double that and more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 You'd be aiming more for the other October TC-like entity or Fay then. Lol, it's true Miami had 15 inches then and Key West a bit more. This could be double that and more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 You'd be aiming more for the other October TC-like entity or Fay then. Yes, similar to Fay perhaps. I had forgotten about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Sorry to single you out, but this constant second guessing of the NHC is getting old when it is lacking scientific reasoning of why you disagree. No one is above learning, and certainly not the specialists at the NHC. (Experts in any field, make their rise to the top by making mistakes along the way and learning from them.) So if you have reasons why the GFS is the ticket here, let's hear it. And perhaps while you are at it you draw for us a track forecast placing your positions on the NHC track map. sorry to single you out, but what did I say that was not 100% true. NHC following Euro model - check HPC following the Euro model - check Local NWS offices following HPC which is following the Euro model - check I'm not second guessing at all. All three institutions have said categorically that they are mainly using the Euro. Maybe you should read these outlets more before commenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 These kind of broad systems with asymetric Moist envelopes rarely if ever develop into anything impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 sorry to single you out, but what did I say that was not 100% true. NHC following Euro model - check HPC following the Euro model - check Local NWS offices following HPC which is following the Euro model - check I'm not second guessing at all. All three institutions have said categorically that they are mainly using the Euro. Maybe you should read these outlets more before commenting. If you can't take some criticism without responding like an ***hole, then don't post at all. I don't care if you're right or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Once TC advisories are initiated, everyone follows NHC. One team working together. sorry to single you out, but what did I say that was not 100% true. NHC following Euro model - check HPC following the Euro model - check Local NWS offices following HPC which is following the Euro model - check I'm not second guessing at all. All three institutions have said categorically that they are mainly using the Euro. Maybe you should read these outlets more before commenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 These kind of broad systems with asymetric Moist envelopes rarely if ever develop into anything impressive. Well of course that is easy to say as a tropical snob AND from a seat 1,000 miles away. I would hope that there is a significant amount of trop dudes around here with enough savvy to separate a normally LOL system out in the open ocean with this one which is interacting with terra firma and real population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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