jrips27 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 @48 Euro shows Debby stalling and crawling back SW. Jog or actual direction? Will find out here in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Panhandle landfall at hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 NHC criticism is warranted in this case and rightfully so. Just read the disco by Stewart only a few hours before everything collapsed from a modeling and actual storm movement standpoint. He took the GFS to the woodshed and in less than six hours that entire forecast was toast. I'll back up the NHC in a heartbeat. Not here..... Eh, they had to make a forecast. Forecasts bust all the time. Outside the random few people saying they had it it right all along no one had a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Louisiana Governor has Declared a State of Emergency NEW ORLEANS -- June 24, 2012 Louisiana's governor has declared a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Debby threatens to flood low-lying coastal areas. http://www.wctv.tv/home/headlines/Louisiana_Governor_has_Declared_a_State_of_Emergency_160173815.html --- *sigh* And this is why TC forecast tracks/warnings aren't just academic exercises. Totally unnecessary, and a more significantly adjusted NHC track (instead of stairstepping it back) could've avoided this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Panhandle landfall at hr 72 Game...Set...Match... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 NHC criticism is warranted in this case and rightfully so. Just read the disco by Stewart only a few hours before everything collapsed from a modeling and actual storm movement standpoint. He took the GFS to the woodshed and in less than six hours that entire forecast was toast. I'll back up the NHC in a heartbeat. Not here..... It's easy to be Monday Morning QB. I thought over the last 2 summers...the GFS has handled TC better than it previously did. That said, you can't ignore the model that routinely does better than the GFS in terms of verification. Wxmeddler brought up the crushed spider example of the ensemble look. You end up going by your gut and best judgement. Sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. LOL at the people who come out of the wood work and bash the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Stalled in or just off the FL Panhandle at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Simply put, they went Euro over GFS and lost. It wasn't euro going into Big Bend and GFS hitting Tampa/St Pete, it was TX or Fla. They didn't have much room to split the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Even today, look at the timing differences between the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Stalled in or just off the FL Panhandle at 78 Mostly resembles the 12z NAM for now... Just kinda stalls. Oh the flooding that would ensue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I love everyone coming out of the woodworks today (not just here) to swipe at NHC. Like anyone else had a real clue as of yesterday themselves. This. Between these comments and those about how Debby is "crap" and "boring because it's not a hurricane", this thread has suddenly become annoying. With that said, it is quite possible that both the Canadian and GFS have scored a mild coup with this one. I'm still not convinced that Debby is going to go all-out GFS and go northeast into the Atlantic, as there is still a good chance for a complete stall for a day or so. As I said yesterday, I really like the Lee comparison for the sake of a storm splitting the difference between all models. It definitely will be interesting to see what Debby does when the shear lets up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Still stalled at hr 90 right on the Panhandle coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Louisiana Governor has Declared a State of Emergency NEW ORLEANS -- June 24, 2012 Louisiana's governor has declared a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Debby threatens to flood low-lying coastal areas. http://www.wctv.tv/h..._160173815.html --- *sigh* And this is why TC forecast tracks/warnings aren't just academic exercises. Totally unnecessary, and a more significantly adjusted NHC track (instead of stairstepping it back) could've avoided this. ... and people wonder why I went nuts when SC decided to do anyway with voluntary evacs and will now go straight to mandatory evacuations. As I said, there is no earthly reason why a politician would wait to pull the trigger on an evac since the risk of blame is low. They can always blame the NHC if the storm fails to materialize. If they are correct, the politician is a hero. Expect a large increase in mandatories down the line and the resultant economic impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 NHC criticism is warranted in this case and rightfully so. Just read the disco by Stewart only a few hours before everything collapsed from a modeling and actual storm movement standpoint. He took the GFS to the woodshed and in less than six hours that entire forecast was toast. I'll back up the NHC in a heartbeat. Not here..... I have been a big critic of NHC over the years but they were really in a no-win situation in this case, not sure how I would have handled this POS storm myself. Easy to second guess but not many really believed the GFS a couple of days ago, including yours truly. Would you have had them have a cone that went from TX to central FL? Not practical. This storm has just been a royal pain in the a$$ from the get-go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Still stalled at hr 90 right on the Panhandle coast. That solution would bring epic rain to FL and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 And what happens if the shear vector becomes more southerly, or disappears as the upper low to its west continues to retrograde? There's a break in the surface pressure pattern to the system's northwest to north, even if the mid-level break is to its northeast. No wonder its motion is slow. The weak surface ridge is already bridging across the cold front into the subtropical ridge south of Bermuda. Debby is near the col point in the steering flow...which itself will be moving northeast due to increasing heights across the Carolinas, a development already in progress. So which moves faster...the col point or Debby? Debby could easily transcribe an anticyclonic loop due to increasing ridging to its north (a la Elena 1985), if it doesn't accelerate. It's way too early to pat any piece of guidance on the back. No one, at this point, is sure of the steering. We'll know better in a day or two. The guidance (particularly the hurricane guidance) overtrends in the direction the system is currently moving. As another Debbie used to say (spelled differently), anything is possible. =) That's pretty much the forecast I just put out on my blog. Even though the models are still in a squashed spider pattern, more of them are clustering towards the eastern solution. Makes alot of sense due to the cold front that is pushing through my area at the moment. This cold front is much stronger than usual for summer btw, expected to get down into the 40s the next couple of mornings around southern Wisconsin! Not to mention the fact the GFS shows cooler 850s reaching all the way down to the Gulf coast within 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 NHC needs to issue a track updatre to cancel New Orleans and alert Tampa. A cat 1 with the NHC track is pretty bad for NO but the new leavee systemis designed to hold. However panic and preperations for sunshine are unwarrented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well...the GFS has definitely led the way is keeping Debby in the Eastern GOM...now it would only be appropiate for the Euro to lead the way on this stall scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALG Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Does anyone know if the NHC is having troubles with their e-mails today? I haven't received any e-mail updates since 3:42 a.m. and that's a frustrating way to start an interesting week like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 agree completely, but Joe Public likes pretty pictures, and believes what they see implicitly. Those pictures show something into TX. Only us weather nerds read the fine print. I don't blame the NHC for what they forecasted, as it was a viable solution, but with so much uncertainty, there may be better options with regard to what picture you show the public. Circular reasoning or a reason ro draw a circle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 How useful would it be for the NHC to switch to situation-specific forecast ranges where, for example, if there's too much uncertainty over which way the track is going to go in a particular situation, they just don't issue track forecasts out beyond, say, day 2 or however far out the uncertainty becomes prohibitive. Or at least have a cone of uncertainty that is storm-specific based on model spread instead of purely on statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CV 60 USS Saratoga Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Here in Bradenton Fla, just South of Tampa Bay, it has been insane for the past couple hrs. Just got back from a ride to the beach, MAJOR flooding across the roads, huge waves in the Gulf, at least 10ft or so. Winds are gusting to about 35 - 40mph or so, I saw several trees down here in town. VERY surprised that we're not under Tropical Storm watches or even warnings, it's really bad out, comes in waves where it'll be pretty calm for a bit, then torrential rain and really gusty winds will hit. Still not at high tide either, I'll be surprised if anyone can even get to the beaches soon, I imagine the Sunshine Skyway must be a pretty brutal drive right about now. Just heard om the local news that Law Enforcement has just asked for people NOT to come out to Anna Maria Island due to flooding...that's where I just was 1/2 hr ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Circular reasoning or a reason ro draw a circle you are uninformed on the definition of circular reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I have been a big critic of NHC over the years but they were really in a no-win situation in this case, not sure how I would have handled this POS storm myself. Easy to second guess but not many really believed the GFS a couple of days ago, including yours truly. Would you have had them have a cone that went from TX to central FL? Not practical. This storm has just been a royal pain in the a$$ from the get-go. This, especially considering the Euro has historically been more accurate than the GFS 9/10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 How useful would it be for the NHC to switch to situation-specific forecast ranges where, for example, if there's too much uncertainty over which way the track is going to go in a particular situation, they just don't issue track forecasts out beyond, say, day 2 or however far out the uncertainty becomes prohibitive. Or at least have a cone of uncertainty that is storm-specific based on model spread instead of purely on statistics. exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Keep in mind that if NHC didn't forecast it, HPC would still have to for systems near the lower 48. There would still be a deterministic option out there, much like prior to a TC's formation. I don't think the public or forecast offices would appreciate it if we eliminated systems from our maps just due to the uncertainty. How useful would it be for the NHC to switch to situation-specific forecast ranges where, for example, if there's too much uncertainty over which way the track is going to go in a particular situation, they just don't issue track forecasts out beyond, say, day 2 or however far out the uncertainty becomes prohibitive. Or at least have a cone of uncertainty that is storm-specific based on model spread instead of purely on statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 How useful would it be for the NHC to switch to situation-specific forecast ranges where, for example, if there's too much uncertainty over which way the track is going to go in a particular situation, they just don't issue track forecasts out beyond, say, day 2 or however far out the uncertainty becomes prohibitive. Or at least have a cone of uncertainty that is storm-specific based on model spread instead of purely on statistics. might as well carry that over to the whole nws. if the forecast for your backyard is 'too hard' past day 1 let's skip the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Drifting west towards Mobile @ 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The new Euro would be worst case for the Pensacola area in terms of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Keep in mind that if NHC didn't forecast it, HPC would still have to for systems near the lower 48. There would still be a deterministic option out there, much like prior to a TC's formation. I don't think the public or forecast offices would appreciate it if we eliminated systems from our maps just due to the uncertainty. true, but how much of the public even knows the HPC exists? A step further, how many know the HPC produces maps and discussion? Two steps further, most people use local TV weather or TWC. Unless those resources use HPC in their graphics, which I would contend that most do not, then how would the public know of the HPC forecasts?? Essentially, the local weather forecast would include large elements of HPC language and precip amounts, but very often without the maps. People are visual in nature, so the written word is less frightening than a map with a 10" QPF blob over their house. The blessing and curse of the NHC is that everyone uses their cone forecast as gospel and shows everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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