Jaguars Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Still not convinced? they can be ultra-conservative over there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012 IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING. DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3 KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST. DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX. THE GFS INSISTS ON A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DEBBY BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE HWRF BUILD A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK. GIVEN THE WESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE HISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK AT ANY TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Interesting track-forecast discussion: GIVEN THE WESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE HISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK AT ANY TIME. I'll bet they're way over this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012 IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING. DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3 KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST. DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX. THE GFS INSISTS ON A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DEBBY BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE HWRF BUILD A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK. GIVEN THE WESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE HISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK AT ANY TIME. haha, just not this time ok folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Haha, guess it's not as clear-cut as I expected yesterday. A GFS victory? Well, only if it goes into Florida and into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 New forecast track very similar to the 00Z Euro and EC ensemble mean, hedged slightly to the east to account for trends this morning. It makes sense, for the sake of not confusing the public. If 12Z Euro is east, we'll probably see substantial changes to the 4pm advisory. I'm actually more surprised they keep it a hurricane Wed morning. For the first time in Debby's short life, dry air over the western Gulf could become an issue. Given the fact that the mid-level and low-level centers continue to be misaligned, it wouldn't take much to really disrupt the circulation. The proximity to land and a consistent northward trend relative to previous forecast tracks also makes forecasting much more intensification a risky bet. Edit to add: 8 new posts in the time it took me to type this? You guys are trigger happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 kind of surprised they're not hedging their swath bets a little more, so if the east trend continues the next few runs they don't have to make a near 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Tracks are never changed on intermediate advisories-- only the main ones. And something that seriously needs to be reevaluated. That last line by Avila almost asks for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 kind of surprised they're not hedging their swath bets a little more, so if the east trend continues the next few runs they don't have to make a near 180 The cone of uncertainty is not adjustable. It accounts for the average track error for 2/3rds of all storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I seriously hate this system. Disorganized, disorderly, and defiant. The worst qualities possible in a TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I seriously hate this system. Disorganized, disorderly, and defiant. The worst qualities possible in a TC be nice now. we could be looking at no tropical disturbances but instead Debby is our 4th already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Looks like crap. You expected something better from an early season slopgyre? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Ha ha ha, people are really hatin' on this system. And you know the NHC hates it, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 There might be a special advisory that landfall occurred six hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 3" of rain and 50 mph gusts here in Seminole FL (Pinellas) about 2 miles from the GOM. Best tropical system we've had in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 You expected something better from an early season slopgyre? I want a hurricane. That's all I'm saying. Everything else is crap really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I seriously hate this system. Disorganized, disorderly, and defiant. The worst qualities possible in a TC Defiant is an awesome attribute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 12z GFS continues with the eastern solution. Very hard to argue against that at this point given how far north and east it has already moved compared to earlier forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 There might be a special advisory that landfall occurred six hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I want a hurricane. That's all I'm saying. Everything else is crap really. Wow-- weird when we agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 down here in so-flo, the wrapping motion of Deb has us under a tornado warning, some seriously nasty stuff out there right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 When I got on today, I was expecting a more organized system that could actually sustain and strengthen throughout the day. What I have is a tropical cyclone getting blasted by shear and going the exact opposite way it was forecast to do yesterday. Not to mention that it's streaking this early in the day. Fun times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 If anyone saw the 12z NAM FWIW... It parks Debby for the entire run and it doesn't budge more then 50 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 And something that seriously needs to be reevaluated. That last line by Avila almost asks for it. Some folks are raking Avila through the coals for that comment...but I get where he went with it...and given *history* I can see why they hold onto the EC. I agree with your first point 100% as well. If they need to adjust at the intermediate they should be allowed to (if there's cause to do so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 down here in so-flo, the wrapping motion of Deb has us under a tornado warning, some seriously nasty stuff out there right now yeah, I'm watching that with you. I look to see some of these t-storms in an hour or so further up the coast in SL County. There are presently three red boxes in SFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Wow-- weird when we agree. Yeah, we're probably more alike than different or what we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 yeah, I'm watching that with you. I look to see some of these t-storms in an hour or so further up the coast in SL County. There are presently three red boxes in SFL. just watching 1/2 " hail fall a minute ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Tornado watch for a decent part of Florida. 850mb winds are cranking right off the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 just watching 1/2 " hail fall a minute ago i'm in Boynton Beach btw, (south-central palm beach county) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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