HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Can scrambled eggs have a center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Note that TS warnings have now been issued for AL & FL Panhandle WTNT34 KNHC 241158 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND ALABAMA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 87.0W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA ... Also based on current radar trends and potential for a more E solution FL panhande needs to be ready for a lot of water. That flooding theme has been prominent down around the Gulf /Florida region since the spring with record high PW's. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2117 http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/05/22/flash-flood-warning-issued-for-inland-miami-dade/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Can scrambled eggs have a center? Well, you did get a VDM. Facts remain facts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well, you did get a VDM. Facts remain facts... I found it interesting that the advisory position was so different than the VDM coordinates. There's an apparent lack of clarity around what the center is, exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 9:00am obs from Apalachicola Apalachicola Lat: 29.73 Lon: -85.03 Elev: 20 Last Update on Jun 24, 8:53 am EDT Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy 74 °F (23 °C) Humidity: 91 % Wind Speed: E 23 G 40 MPH Barometer: 29.75" (1007.4 mb) Dewpoint: 71 °F (22 °C) Visibility: 1.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I found it interesting that the advisory position was so different than the VDM coordinates. There's an apparent lack of clarity around what the center is, exactly. It may be that the NHC is trying to use a broad center location while the planes are fixing smaller tighter vortices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well. My vacation to Orange Beach, AL has gotten even more interesting overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I found it interesting that the advisory position was so different than the VDM coordinates. There's an apparent lack of clarity around what the center is, exactly. The planes might be fixing the eggs, but the NHC the omelet -- so to speak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Here are links to some FL Panhandle web cams.(they both contain other links within them) As someone who has fished extensively out of Destin, that is already high water & a nasty surf break for the harbor and East Pass. http://www.tripsmart...m-shores-panama http://www.tripsmarter.com/travelinfo/destin/beach-tv-live-cam-destin-florida http://www.tripsmart...harbor-live-cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 13:24Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2012 Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 2 Observation Number: 09 A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:06:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°00'N 86°16'W (28.N 86.2667W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 155 miles (249 km) to the SSW (194°) from Panama City, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,366m (4,482ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 98 nautical miles (113 statute miles) to the SE (138°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 235° at 55kts (From the SW at ~ 63.3mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 83 nautical miles (96 statute miles) to the SE (140°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,828m (5,997ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,825m (5,988ft) K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 12:40:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The new VDM fix is even further to the NE. I imagine the next advisory position will catch up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 You guys at all surprised that the NHC didn't budge much on the track at 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 You guys at all surprised that the NHC didn't budge much on the track at 7? Tracks are never changed on intermediate advisories-- only the main ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Nice outflow over the n quad....other than that, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Debby has defied most models thus far. I think NHC should start to consider the storm moving due north then NE along the stalled front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Still a big spread but all the models on here keep it a Tropical Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Tracks are never changed on intermediate advisories-- only the main ones. that would explain it, thank you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Still a big spread but all the models on here keep it a Tropical Storm. This is going to be a huge rain event for someone.....not much else, but can't complain given the early stage of the season. Crazy start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 that would explain it, thank you sir You're very welcome. On that note, I am very curious to see what they do with the new forecast track, due out in about 30 mins. The NHC generally tries to avoid big changes from one forecast to the next-- preferring instead to take a gradual approach-- but this situation might require more abrupt treatment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 This is going to be a huge rain event for someone.....not much else, but can't complain given the early stage of the season. Crazy start. Probably a safe bet to say that the drought over North Florida and a lot of Southern Georgia will be over by mid to late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Really looks poor the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Thank god I got my roof fixed. Two tropical systems targeting Jax within a month? loco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I know the convection's motion isn't necessarily indicative of the center's motion, but the whole mess looks to be pushing NE-- that or it's really getting sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I know the convection's motion isn't necessarily indicative of the center's motion, but the whole mess looks to be pushing NE-- that or it's really getting sheared. What do you use for your radar/infrared images of Deb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 What do you use for your radar/infrared images of Deb? Just the basics: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/04L_floater.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Very curious to see the new forecast track... How much will they adjust it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Just the basics: http://www.ssd.noaa....4L_floater.html thanks, really hard to tell where the center is and whether she's getting less or better organized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Still not convinced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The new advisory has adjusted right some, bringing a weak hurricane into SE LA between Day 3 and 4. It's not the GFS solution, but it's trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Oh, man...official forecast has a cane in LA...let the media barrage begin. My gut tells me this never becomes a cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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