thewxmann Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well, looks like GFS was right. congrats to it for scoring a coup with this system (as well as with all the COL situations last year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well, looks like GFS was right. congrats to it for scoring a coup with this system (as well as with all the COL situations last year). What makes you so confident? Don't you want to see a couple more runs first-- to make sure it's not windshield wiping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Looking better now as previously mentioned. Convection now wrapping around the N and NW sides. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=d4&size=2x&type=loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 LOL..slow meandering highly sheared early season Gulf storms are always fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 What makes you so confident? Don't you want to see a couple more runs first-- to make sure it's not windshield wiping? Haha thats true. But the trend doesn't lie -- it is looking increasingly likely that there will be some type of weakness in the big central U.S. ridge (which should be expected based on the fact that we have a pretty strong trough lifting out of the Intermtn West). Basically, there's two scenarios right now -- N.O. or Tampa -- and the fact the Tampa solution is the only one that hasn't changed in the past 2-3 days. And if the ridge continues to be weaker than progged, then models will continue the trend east. But yes, if this is actually windshield wiping, I'll go ahead and eat crow when this makes landfall in Port Lavaca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Regardless of what eventually happens, I kinda just want to get Debby over with -- don't want it to ruin our TCHP for prime season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Regardless of what eventually happens, I kinda just want to get Debby over with -- don't want it to ruin our TCHP for prime season. Ha ha, totally agreed. Was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Regardless of what eventually happens, I kinda just want to get Debby over with -- don't want it to ruin our TCHP for prime season. No worries. The Carla cradle will be just fine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 No worries. The Carla cradle will be just fine... Just please tell it to wait until 01 July to start crankin' out pups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 FWIW, EC ensemble mean consensus is still sending Debby to Texas although a few individual members do take it east into Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC) Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 11:11Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Storm Number: 04 Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 2 Observation Number: 03 Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 11Z on the 24th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 500mb Coordinates: 28.9N 86.6W Location: 105 miles (168 km) to the SSW (213°) from Panama City, FL, USA. Marsden Square: 081 (About) Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1001mb (29.56 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 60° (from the ENE) 55 knots (63 mph) 1000mb 13m (43 ft) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 60° (from the ENE) 57 knots (66 mph) 925mb 692m (2,270 ft) 20.4°C (68.7°F) 16.4°C (61.5°F) 55° (from the NE) 70 knots (81 mph) 850mb 1,424m (4,672 ft) 18.8°C (65.8°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F) 45° (from the NE) 64 knots (74 mph) 700mb 3,070m (10,072 ft) 11.2°C (52.2°F) 9.2°C (48.6°F) 75° (from the ENE) 43 knots (49 mph) 500mb 5,810m (19,062 ft) -2.3°C (27.9°F) -2.7°C (27.1°F) 120° (from the ESE) 18 knots (21 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 10:44Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Splash Location: 28.86N 86.66W Splash Time: 10:51Z Release Location: 28.9N 86.56W Release Time: 10:44:01Z Splash Location: 28.86N 86.66W Splash Time: 10:51:49Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE) - Wind Speed: 67 knots (77 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 65° (from the ENE) - Wind Speed: 44 knots (51 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 486mb to 1001mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 To demonstrate this graphically: (From http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/) FWIW, EC ensemble mean consensus is still sending Debby to Texas although a few individual members do take it east into Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 11:30Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2012 Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 2 Observation Number: 05 A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 11:19:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°52'N 86°29'W (27.8667N 86.4833W) B. Center Fix Location: 167 miles (269 km) to the SSW (197°) from Panama City, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,371m (4,498ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 119° at 32kts (From the ESE at ~ 36.8mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft) K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:00:0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Interesting trends overnight for sure http://www.examiner.com/article/debby-s-threat-shifting-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 To demonstrate this graphically: (From http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/) Awesome...bookmarked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 FWIW, EC ensemble mean consensus is still sending Debby to Texas although a few individual members do take it east into Florida. Not sure I agree totally. There are probably more members west of the op, but still a good number east too. For instance looking at the 96 hour graphic, I would say maybe 55/45 west/east of op run maybe 60/40 at best. Certainly wouldnt say consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Not sure I agree totally. There are probably more members west of the op, but still a good number east too. For instance looking at the 96 hour graphic, I would say maybe 55/45 west/east of op run maybe 60/40 at best. Certainly wouldnt say consensus. Now having seen that link from jconsor, your assessment is right (was looking at spaghetti plot and then the mean and it looked like a stronger West Gulf lean than the other graphic implied). It's still a more "west" than "east" look though...consensus was a bit strong of a term but when you're looking at spaghetti and the "mean" it can be disguised a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kennethb Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well put Allan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 11:30Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2012 Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 2 Observation Number: 05 A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 11:19:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°52'N 86°29'W (27.8667N 86.4833W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 167 miles (269 km) to the SSW (197°) from Panama City, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,371m (4,498ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 119° at 32kts (From the ESE at ~ 36.8mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft) K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:00:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The center is quite a bit NE of the previous fix. Another nudge toward the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Interesting that the new (7 am EDT) advisory position (27.5°N 87.0°W) is far off from the recon fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BALD POINT IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...60 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Now having seen that link from jconsor, your assessment is right (was looking at spaghetti plot and then the mean and it looked like a stronger West Gulf lean than the other graphic implied). It's still a more "west" than "east" look though...consensus was a bit strong of a term but when you're looking at spaghetti and the "mean" it can be disguised a bit. Ha yep. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The interesting thing about the rightward shift overnight in the Euro was that the upgraded GFS had Beryl going into the SE a run or two early on while the Euro was OTS. The Euro eventually moved toward the GFS. Even if the GFS comes a little further west this could be another coup for the new model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Note that TS warnings have now been issued for AL & FL Panhandle WTNT34 KNHC 241158 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND ALABAMA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 87.0W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA ... Also based on current radar trends and potential for a more E solution FL panhande needs to be ready for a lot of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 To demonstrate this graphically: (From http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/) contrasting to the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 contrasting to the GFS: It appears that the GFS brings Debbie to a decision point in 18-24 hours as seen in the tight cluster south of Pensacola, after which time the various iterations diverge both east and west. If Debbie is indeed fixing further NE, then that would tend to weight the NE solutions a little more. Interesting storm from a model standpoint, if not from a weather one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Upon a bit closer inspection as the first visible imagery becomes available, notice that convections is trending N of the center and showers/storms are now developing to the W of that broad center. That is an indication that wind shear is indeed relaxing and the Ridge is developing N of Debby. Those will be the key features to observe as the day progresses regarding the future movement of Debby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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