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Post Tropical Cyclone Debby


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What makes you so confident? Don't you want to see a couple more runs first-- to make sure it's not windshield wiping? :D

Haha thats true. But the trend doesn't lie -- it is looking increasingly likely that there will be some type of weakness in the big central U.S. ridge (which should be expected based on the fact that we have a pretty strong trough lifting out of the Intermtn West). Basically, there's two scenarios right now -- N.O. or Tampa -- and the fact the Tampa solution is the only one that hasn't changed in the past 2-3 days. And if the ridge continues to be weaker than progged, then models will continue the trend east.

But yes, if this is actually windshield wiping, I'll go ahead and eat crow when this makes landfall in Port Lavaca.

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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)

Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 11:11Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number: 04

Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 2

Observation Number: 03

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 11Z on the 24th day of the month

Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 500mb

Coordinates: 28.9N 86.6W

Location: 105 miles (168 km) to the SSW (213°) from Panama City, FL, USA.

Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1001mb (29.56 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 60° (from the ENE) 55 knots (63 mph) 1000mb 13m (43 ft) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 60° (from the ENE) 57 knots (66 mph) 925mb 692m (2,270 ft) 20.4°C (68.7°F) 16.4°C (61.5°F) 55° (from the NE) 70 knots (81 mph) 850mb 1,424m (4,672 ft) 18.8°C (65.8°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F) 45° (from the NE) 64 knots (74 mph) 700mb 3,070m (10,072 ft) 11.2°C (52.2°F) 9.2°C (48.6°F) 75° (from the ENE) 43 knots (49 mph) 500mb 5,810m (19,062 ft) -2.3°C (27.9°F) -2.7°C (27.1°F) 120° (from the ESE) 18 knots (21 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:

- Launch Time: 10:44Z

- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Splash Location: 28.86N 86.66W

Splash Time: 10:51Z

Release Location: 28.9N 86.56W

Release Time: 10:44:01Z

Splash Location: 28.86N 86.66W

Splash Time: 10:51:49Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):

- Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE)

- Wind Speed: 67 knots (77 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):

- Wind Direction: 65° (from the ENE)

- Wind Speed: 44 knots (51 mph)

- Depth of Sounding: From 486mb to 1001mb

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 11:30Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2012

Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 2

Observation Number: 05

A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 11:19:40Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°52'N 86°29'W (27.8667N 86.4833W)

B. Center Fix Location: 167 miles (269 km) to the SSW (197°) from Panama City, FL, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,371m (4,498ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 119° at 32kts (From the ESE at ~ 36.8mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:00:0

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FWIW, EC ensemble mean consensus is still sending Debby to Texas although a few individual members do take it east into Florida.

Not sure I agree totally. There are probably more members west of the op, but still a good number east too. For instance looking at the 96 hour graphic, I would say maybe 55/45 west/east of op run maybe 60/40 at best. Certainly wouldnt say consensus.

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Not sure I agree totally. There are probably more members west of the op, but still a good number east too. For instance looking at the 96 hour graphic, I would say maybe 55/45 west/east of op run maybe 60/40 at best. Certainly wouldnt say consensus.

Now having seen that link from jconsor, your assessment is right (was looking at spaghetti plot and then the mean and it looked like a stronger West Gulf lean than the other graphic implied).

It's still a more "west" than "east" look though...consensus was a bit strong of a term but when you're looking at spaghetti and the "mean" it can be disguised a bit. :P

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 11:30Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2012

Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 2

Observation Number: 05

A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 11:19:40Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°52'N 86°29'W (27.8667N 86.4833W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 167 miles (269 km) to the SSW (197°) from Panama City, FL, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,371m (4,498ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 119° at 32kts (From the ESE at ~ 36.8mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:00:00Z

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AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DEBBY IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN

TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF

DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE

NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM

FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BALD POINT IN THE

FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...60

KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE

WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

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Now having seen that link from jconsor, your assessment is right (was looking at spaghetti plot and then the mean and it looked like a stronger West Gulf lean than the other graphic implied).

It's still a more "west" than "east" look though...consensus was a bit strong of a term but when you're looking at spaghetti and the "mean" it can be disguised a bit. :P

Ha yep. I agree.

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The interesting thing about the rightward shift overnight in the Euro was that the upgraded GFS had Beryl going into

the SE a run or two early on while the Euro was OTS. The Euro eventually moved toward the GFS. Even if the GFS

comes a little further west this could be another coup for the new model.

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Note that TS warnings have now been issued for AL & FL Panhandle

WTNT34 KNHC 241158

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012

700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND

ALABAMA GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.5N 87.0W

ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI

ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

...

Also based on current radar trends and potential for a more E solution FL panhande needs to be ready for a lot of water.

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contrasting to the GFS:

esrl.eps.ncep.skp.loop.04L.2012.2012062400.gif

It appears that the GFS brings Debbie to a decision point in 18-24 hours as seen in the tight cluster south of Pensacola, after which time the various iterations diverge both east and west. If Debbie is indeed fixing further NE, then that would tend to weight the NE solutions a little more. Interesting storm from a model standpoint, if not from a weather one.

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Upon a bit closer inspection as the first visible imagery becomes available, notice that convections is trending N of the center and showers/storms are now developing to the W of that broad center. That is an indication that wind shear is indeed relaxing and the Ridge is developing N of Debby. Those will be the key features to observe as the day progresses regarding the future movement of Debby.

post-32-0-61074400-1340541958_thumb.jpg

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