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Post Tropical Cyclone Debby


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The current GFS (old parallel) had problems with Alberto as well. Word on the street is that NHC was not enthused about its implementation, based on the 2011 hurricane season. There is a little more convective feedback, which occasionally contaminates its surface lows.

Yeah from what I'm reading they didn't quite implement the GFSe as how it ran last year, but they tinkered with some things before implementing it?

Am I reading that right or am I crazy? lol

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Some decent tornadic looking cells trying to move on shore north of Fort Myers.

Time for me to head to Venice to chase! ;) It's nice when you go to Florida for vacation and 2 storms form... It's been raining in Sarasota since Noon without much wind. The heaviest stuff has been south and west of us. Can't wait to drive back in all this mess tomorrow morning! Oh well, at least I got to experience the effects of a TS this season :D I am anxious to see how far north this gets pulled by the trough before it is yanked southwest.

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:wacko2:

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL:

It appeared that the center of Debby was moving northeast in the

last couple of visible satellite pics of the day. However, we are

attributing that to a wobble and anticipate little movement with

this system during the overnight hours. However, if the trend does

not reverse itself, then we may need to finally consider the

possibility that the GFS solution (which we have been routinely

discounting for days) may have some merit.

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:wacko2:

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL:

It appeared that the center of Debby was moving northeast in the

last couple of visible satellite pics of the day. However, we are

attributing that to a wobble and anticipate little movement with

this system during the overnight hours. However, if the trend does

not reverse itself, then we may need to finally consider the

possibility that the GFS solution (which we have been routinely

discounting for days) may have some merit.

GFS does not move the system signiifigantly east until 60hrs.

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No real changes with the 11pm advisory, except it is now brought up to a 70kt hurricane by day 5. 26.3N 87.5W was used for the center location.

That's kind of a big change with the forecast-- 10 kt more bullish than before. I'm wondering what the reasoning is, given that it hasn't improved since the last advisory.

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DEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MULTIPLE

LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN

SEMICIRCLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ABOUT A MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION OF

A LARGER GYRE...AND THE LOCATION OF THE LARGER STATIONARY GYRE IS

THE ADVISORY POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT

NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO

THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR

SO SHOULD BE SLOWLY POLEWARD. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.

HAS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS CREATING

DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.

THIS INCREASED RIDGING IS REFLECTED BY 20-40 METER 500 MB HEIGHT

RISES AT 00Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EXTENDING

AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINA COASTS. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN TO

THE NORTH OF DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE

WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY 36-48

HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN

GULF AFTER THAT. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT

FOR THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS...SUPPORTS THE GENERAL WESTWARD

MOTION SCENARIO. THE MAIN REASON THAT THE GFS MOVES DEBBY EASTWARD

ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS DUE TO IT HAVING A WEAKER AND MORE

VERTICALLY SHALLOW STORM DEPICTED IN THE MODEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED

FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR

FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST

WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED IN THE

ECMWF...UKMET... NOGAPS MODELS SEEMS A MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY TRACK.

MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY

GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WEAKER WIND

SHEAR BY 36-48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE

MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS DEBBY TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A 200

MB RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE

ECMWF MODEL...WHICH IS FORECASTING A HURRICANE CENTRAL PRESSURE BY

96 HOURS...AND IS ABOVE THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SINCE

THAT OUTPUT LIKELY DOES NOT REPRESENT THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

THAT DEBBY WILL ENCOUNTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A

LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND BRINGS DEBBY TO

HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 26.3N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 24/1200Z 26.7N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 25/0000Z 27.0N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 25/1200Z 27.1N 88.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 26/0000Z 27.2N 89.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 27/0000Z 27.2N 91.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 28/0000Z 27.2N 93.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

120H 29/0000Z 27.2N 95.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

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That's kind of a big change with the forecast-- 10 kt more bullish than before. I'm wondering what the reasoning is, given that it hasn't improved since the last advisory.

DEBBY IS GRADUALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THE

UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY

COMPONENT. SHIP ZCDJ2 LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AND

NEAR NOAA BUOY 42003 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001.6 MB AND 38 KT

WINDS AT 24/00Z. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE

IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE

DATA AT 23/2020Z INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT IN

THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 49 KT SURFACE

WINDS. CONVECTION WAS SOMEWHAT MEAGER AT THAT...BUT SINCE THEN HAS

INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE THE INITIAL

INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A SOLID 45 KT.

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DEBBY IS GRADUALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THE

UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY

COMPONENT. SHIP ZCDJ2 LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AND

NEAR NOAA BUOY 42003 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001.6 MB AND 38 KT

WINDS AT 24/00Z. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE

IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE

DATA AT 23/2020Z INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT IN

THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 49 KT SURFACE

WINDS. CONVECTION WAS SOMEWHAT MEAGER AT THAT...BUT SINCE THEN HAS

INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE THE INITIAL

INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A SOLID 45 KT.

Yep-- I figured the Discussion would explain the reasoning. So I guess it has improved.

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I hope personally at least that if this does hit Texas it's more central/southern Texas coast, no offense to those who are along South Padre intended at all but for 2 reasons, 1) this will bring major drought relief to that part where granted it is a LOT better than before, still are considered in a serious drought status. 2) it avoids the Houston/Galveston area, which after spending time on the island recently I would hate to see all the hard work done to rebuild Galveston after Ike get washed away yet again...

but with the way this looks, who KNOWS where the heck it's going.. a lot of the models are hinting at Texas, but still a good chunk are still looking at Florida..

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I have been away from the internet the last 12 hrs, just got a quick look this morning and tonight, the models wars are interesting to say the least. Right know I like the consistency of the UKMET and to a lesser degree the GEM. I would be on alert from Tampa to Brownsville, and high alert from Brownsville to New Orleans. Max alert I think will be between Corpus Christy to Galveston. So much depends on where the NE quad start crossing land IMHO. Pro mets go ahead and confirm this, or argue against it. Just be kind :lmao:

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I have been away from the internet the last 12 hrs, just got a quick look this morning and tonight, the models wars are interesting to say the least. Right know I like the consistency of the UKMET and to a lesser degree the GEM. I would be on alert from Tampa to Brownsville, and high alert from Brownsville to New Orleans. Max alert I think will be between Corpus Christy to Galveston. So much depends on where the NE quad start crossing land IMHO. Pro mets go ahead and confirm this, or argue against it. Just be kind :lmao:

hit it on the head as far as I'm concerned. still time to change things but if I had to make a threat impact zone right now I would put the highest risk based off of what I'm seeing right now between Corpus and I'm gonna go ahead and go as far as the TX/LA border knowing the history of how storms love to make right turns at just the right point as they head into Texas that puts it closer to Beaumont than Corpus Christi.

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That's kind of a big change with the forecast-- 10 kt more bullish than before. I'm wondering what the reasoning is, given that it hasn't improved since the last advisory.

DEBBY IS GRADUALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THE

UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY

COMPONENT. SHIP ZCDJ2 LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AND

NEAR NOAA BUOY 42003 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001.6 MB AND 38 KT

WINDS AT 24/00Z. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE

IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE

DATA AT 23/2020Z INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT IN

THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 49 KT SURFACE

WINDS. CONVECTION WAS SOMEWHAT MEAGER AT THAT...BUT SINCE THEN HAS

INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE THE INITIAL

INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A SOLID 45 KT.

Nah, you pointed the wrong real reason of the bump in intensity which is:

FORECASTER STEWART

;)

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, but still a good chunk are still looking at Florida..

Those are ALL GFS based - they're not really different models. This is where glancing at a spaghetti map can get really, really misleading because there are so many track forecasts initialized in various ways by the the GFS.

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Those are ALL GFS based - they're not really different models. This is where glancing at a spaghetti map can get really, really misleading because there are so many track forecasts initialized in various ways by the the GFS.

I agree completely, we just flat dont have enough yet to say for sure on anything with this, I'm thinking Texas is the eventual track for Debby, but right now still too soon to rule out Florida even..

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