dan88 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 58kt peak flight level winds thus far. A fair number of 40kt+ SFMR readings, with a peak of 49kt, though most of those above 40kt or so are in moderate convection (49kt was in 17 mm/hr for example) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Tornado reported in East Naples with a damage path. Several TORs issued by MFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Now 61kt flight level peak (flight level is 960mb, has risen some from earlier) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Wow... 60 know flight level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Wow... 60 know flight level winds. but not really supported by the SFMR at al... which is still around 40 knots. The higher SFMR readings are all likely rain contaminated with 20+ mm rainfall rate readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 but not really supported by the SFMR at al... which is still around 40 knots. The higher SFMR readings are all likely rain contaminated with 20+ mm rainfall rate readings. Isn't it the other way around? SFMR has to be supported by the flight level winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 We are looking for west winds to get it declared. Who cares if there's a 75kt sfmr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 We are looking for west winds to get it declared. Who cares if there's a 75kt sfmr? It's been "classified" already. Also, there was a VDM out not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Isn't it the other way around? SFMR has to be supported by the flight level winds Not quite... before SFMR, recon primarily used flight level winds that were then reduced down by some fraction to obtain the surface winds. However, SFMR actually measures the surface winds, and probably represents a more accurate reading (outside of areas with high rainfall rates) than flight level winds alone can obtain, even after reduced down to their equivalent sfc wind speed. As the NHC gets more confortable using SFMR look for it to be used more and more frequently as the primary wind source, although oftentimes you still see a blend of the two data methods being used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zestylabs Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Hes at it again http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/216633639377702912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 ...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zestylabs Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Tropical Storm DEBBY Public Advisory Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Archive 000 WTNT34 KNHC 232051 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 ...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 NHC is going westward, with the day 5 position being a 60kt tropical storm slowly moving west towards texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45 KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Gutsy for the NHC to latch onto the western models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Not quite... before SFMR, recon primarily used flight level winds that were then reduced down by some fraction to obtain the surface winds. However, SFMR actually measures the surface winds, and probably represents a more accurate reading (outside of areas with high rainfall rates) than flight level winds alone can obtain, even after reduced down to their equivalent sfc wind speed. As the NHC gets more confortable using SFMR look for it to be used more and more frequently as the primary wind source, although oftentimes you still see a blend of the two data methods being used. In this particular case, I don't think the SFMR and the flight level winds are inconsistent with each other, since the flight level is so low and the reduction factor is probably something like 75-80%. Plus it is under heavy convection as well, which makes the SFMR less reliable, but also means the reduction factor probably isn't super low. There have been cases in the past where the dropsondes have recorded substantially higher surface winds (i.e. more than 5 knots) than SFMR. Really, there's potential error with any method you use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Gutsy for the NHC to latch onto the western models. Meh, when it's the Euro vs the GFS, and many of the GFS models also agree with the Euro, I don't think going with the Euro is that gutsy. They had to choose SOMETHING, after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Looks like the NHC is taking the westward route... I am glad they also mentioned this in their discussion, you can pretty much discount the SHIPS and LGEM until the GFS comes around to the westward track, or the NHC tracks comes around to the eastward track 000 WTNT44 KNHC 232052 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45 KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST EARLIER THAN INDICATED. DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS... SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON JULY 5TH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 26.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Meh, when it's the Euro vs the GFS, and many of the GFS models also agree with the Euro, I don't think going with the Euro is that gutsy. They had to choose SOMETHING, after all. I would've drawn a circle myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Anyone notice in the latest vis that the naked southern swirl has fallen apart and a new LL swirl is taking shape to the north and seems to be starting to pull some of the deeper convection westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 In this particular case, I don't think the SFMR and the flight level winds are inconsistent with each other, since the flight level is so low and the reduction factor is probably something like 75-80%. Plus it is under heavy convection as well, which makes the SFMR less reliable, but also means the reduction factor probably isn't super low. There have been cases in the past where the dropsondes have recorded substantially higher surface winds (i.e. more than 5 knots) than SFMR. Really, there's potential error with any method you use. Good points... I guess just for myself I'd rather be starting off with an value that is actually a surface measurement (albiet empirically derived through sea foam) rather than obtaining a flight level measurement and then trying to extrapolate the winds based on what level you are above the surface. In the latter case you are trying to apply an average that has been estimated through other TCs that doesn't necessary apply in every TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 In my unprofessional opinion it looks like some convection from the east side of the storm may be starting to wrap into the LLC. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Anyone notice in the latest vis that the naked southern swirl has fallen apart and a new LL swirl is taking shape to the north and seems to be starting to pull some of the deeper convection westward. Was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Anyone notice in the latest vis that the naked southern swirl has fallen apart and a new LL swirl is taking shape to the north and seems to be starting to pull some of the deeper convection westward. Looks like typical mesovortice orbiting to me, there's probably 1-2 hiding in the convection besides the 2 we can see. Common to see these things get deformed and interact with each other, etc. I wouldn't focus too much on what they're doing since they're basically inconsequential to the overall storm structure, they're only a sign that this storm is very disorganized right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Assuming the western track verifies closer to the ECMWF operational and ensemble runs, Debby should remain under significant shear until Monday. Afterwards, the ECMWF has the upper low cutting off and becoming smaller in scale, likely in response to the diabatic heating and outflow from Debby's convection. This should allow the upper level westerly wind component around Debby to diminish, resulting in a reduction of the shear. Therefore, I don't expect much, if any, intensification until sometime on Monday, at which point we'll probably see a reorganization of Debby's convective pattern into something that looks more symmetric. Then the intensification rate should increase on Tuesday. I think the environmental conditions are good enough for this to become a hurricane, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 The weather is so boring up here, Tulsa led off their afternoon AFD with an "off-topic" commentary on Debby. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 402 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... GOOD TIME NOT TO BE A FORECASTER ON/NEAR THE GULF COAST. GFS TAKES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...OR MORE ? EAST INTO FLORIDA... ECMWF MODEL ABOUT 180 DEGREES OPPOSED TAKES TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO TEXAS. CANADIAN MODEL SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND TRYS A RUN AT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOULD BE A CLEAR WINNER AND LOSER ON THIS ONE. WILL PLACE BETS ON ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Assuming the western track verifies closer to the ECMWF operational and ensemble runs, Debby should remain under significant shear until Monday. Afterwards, the ECMWF has the upper low cutting off and becoming smaller in scale, likely in response to the diabatic heating and outflow from Debby's convection. This should allow the upper level westerly wind component around Debby to diminish, resulting in a reduction of the shear. Therefore, I don't expect much, if any, intensification until sometime on Monday, at which point we'll probably see a reorganization of Debby's convective pattern into something that looks more symmetric. Then the intensification rate should increase on Tuesday. I think the environmental conditions are good enough for this to become a hurricane, honestly. Euro shows a storm with great structure within a day or two of landfall in Texas. Pretty much fits your description very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Looks like typical mesovortice orbiting to me, there's probably 1-2 hiding in the convection besides the 2 we can see. Common to see these things get deformed and interact with each other, etc. I wouldn't focus too much on what they're doing since they're basically inconsequential to the overall storm structure, they're only a sign that this storm is very disorganized right now. I disagree with the following statement. Mesovorticies are important to the structure of a TC because the dominant mesovorticies can influence the motion and intensity of a tropical cyclone. A good example is Claudette in 2003. The system had multiple mesovoritices that were rotating around a mean center. When each mesovortex interacted with the convection, it often resulted in Claudette taking a jog to the right of the mean track, with a corresponding drop in the pressure. Some excerpts from the NHC discussions reveal this. CLAUDETTE HAS TAKEN A LITTLEJOG TO THE NORTH TODAY...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THIS MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THE WIND CENTER OF CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN PULLED INTO THEDEEP CONVECTION...BUT THIS TIME THERE WAS A RESPONSE IN THE PRESSURE FIELD. THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS 996 MB...DOWN ABOUT 11 MB SINCE YESTERDAY. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KT AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 50 KT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS IS A TRANSITORY PRESSURE FALL. ALTHOUGH THE RECON CENTER FIX WAS A SOLID ONE...THE FEATURE THEY ARE TRACKING STILL APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND WITHIN A BROADER CIRCULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I disagree with the following statement. Mesovorticies are important to the structure of a TC because the dominant mesovorticies can influence the motion and intensity of a tropical cyclone. A good example is Claudette in 2003. The system had multiple mesovoritices that were rotating around a mean center. When each mesovortex interacted with the convection, it often resulted in Claudette taking a jog to the right of the mean track, with a corresponding drop in the pressure. Some excerpts from the NHC discussion reveal this. Sounds like typical downshear center reformation to me, which I'm sure we'll see with this storm. You could say that the mesovortices enhance this process when they re-enter the convection and move towards the best updrafts, which would supercharge the mesovortex and make it the deepest pressure minima in the storm (and thus move the storm center towards the convection). However, the driving process is environmental wind shear which is displacing convection from the center imo, not the mesovortices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I can't remember... but does anyone know if they made the GFS-enkf from last year the GFS op this year, or am I imagining things? If not, what is the best source for that model? If I remember correctly, the GFS-enkf was more reliable than the GFS operational last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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