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One Of The Strongest June Blocking Patterns That We Have Seen


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This June will probably go down as one of the strongest June blocking patterns that we have seen.

So far the positive 500 mb anomalies over the high latitudes have been very impressive for the

month of June. The current model forecasts maintain this strong blocking set up right through

the end of the month. I made some maps of from previous years as a comparison.

June 2012 so far

June 2011

June 2007

June 1998

Current forecasts

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Some of the 850mb temp anomalies (NE US and S Canada) from the past 24-36 hours were on the order of +3-4SD if I recall correctly...

Updated for the image below...the GFS ENS forecast maintains this general feature until the pattern begins to slip back towards climo after day 8-9.

post-533-0-76228200-1340297573_thumb.png

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The one constant has been the long duration blocking pattern over the Russian side of the Arctic

for much of the time since last September. That feature continues to be very strong even as the

pattern has shifted recently on our side of the Arctic.

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It's not surprise that the Bering is colder(but is warming up itself now). While the Kara/Barents is way above normal over a large region.

The Baffin Bay has 6-8C SSTS sitting on the SE side of the Bay, 2-3C SSTs are over the Northern Baffin where a large polyanna has continued to grow. Sea ice in the Baffin has rapidly fallen apart.

The water temperature at the surface is below −1 °C (30 °F) in winter. In summer, it varies from 4–5 °C (39–41 °F) in the south-east to 0 °C (32 °F) and below at north-west. The salinity exceeds 34‰ (parts per thousand) in winter. In summer, it is 32‰ on the east and 30–31‰ on the west. Deep waters are formed as a result of mixing of Arctic and Atlantic waters; their temperature is about −0.5 °C (31.1 °F) and salinity is 34.5 ‰.

satanom-24.png?t=1340393707

The Weather forecasts calls for the Baffin Bay ice to melt out quickly with very warm air being pumped in from the South for the next week or two.

We will have to watch these regions as heat builds. The Kara/Barents is also proged for multiple heat intrusions.

I

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I think we all knew that we'd be reading this thread come june, after the NAO had been through the roof all winter.

Actually the NAO/AO has some persistence in a 6-month cycle, not just a 1-year one... last winter it didn't happen though.

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