bluewave Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 This June will probably go down as one of the strongest June blocking patterns that we have seen. So far the positive 500 mb anomalies over the high latitudes have been very impressive for the month of June. The current model forecasts maintain this strong blocking set up right through the end of the month. I made some maps of from previous years as a comparison. June 2012 so far June 2011 June 2007 June 1998 Current forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 June 2009 has the lowest monthly AO reading...1982 is second...Two developing el nino years...the blocking continued into the winter months at times... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Amazing drought maps - this is just incredible - the new forecast is a very large area for intensification http://weatherobservatory.blogspot.com/2012/06/june-22-25th-hot-some-storm-chances.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Some of the 850mb temp anomalies (NE US and S Canada) from the past 24-36 hours were on the order of +3-4SD if I recall correctly... Updated for the image below...the GFS ENS forecast maintains this general feature until the pattern begins to slip back towards climo after day 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Despite the +NAO this winter and Spring, chalk up another summer -NAO month. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Despite the +NAO this winter and Spring, chalk up another summer -NAO month. Amazing. I think we all knew that we'd be reading this thread come june, after the NAO had been through the roof all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 The one constant has been the long duration blocking pattern over the Russian side of the Arctic for much of the time since last September. That feature continues to be very strong even as the pattern has shifted recently on our side of the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 So, how about July? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 It's not surprise that the Bering is colder(but is warming up itself now). While the Kara/Barents is way above normal over a large region. The Baffin Bay has 6-8C SSTS sitting on the SE side of the Bay, 2-3C SSTs are over the Northern Baffin where a large polyanna has continued to grow. Sea ice in the Baffin has rapidly fallen apart. The water temperature at the surface is below −1 °C (30 °F) in winter. In summer, it varies from 4–5 °C (39–41 °F) in the south-east to 0 °C (32 °F) and below at north-west. The salinity exceeds 34‰ (parts per thousand) in winter. In summer, it is 32‰ on the east and 30–31‰ on the west. Deep waters are formed as a result of mixing of Arctic and Atlantic waters; their temperature is about −0.5 °C (31.1 °F) and salinity is 34.5 ‰. The Weather forecasts calls for the Baffin Bay ice to melt out quickly with very warm air being pumped in from the South for the next week or two. We will have to watch these regions as heat builds. The Kara/Barents is also proged for multiple heat intrusions. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I think we all knew that we'd be reading this thread come june, after the NAO had been through the roof all winter. Actually the NAO/AO has some persistence in a 6-month cycle, not just a 1-year one... last winter it didn't happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 It was very impressive to see the magnitude of these 500 mb height anomalies that we just experienced in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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