Geos Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Now there's a wild card in the mix. How will this event affect Winter, nevermind the fall forecasts? http://uk.reuters.co...E88C1DJ20120913 That looks like a powerful eruption. The best locations for climate affecting volcanic eruptions are in the lower latitudes where forcing is greater. It will interesting to see if this ash makes it into the stratosphere. Welcome to the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The G Man Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 That looks like a powerful eruption. The best locations for climate affecting volcanic eruptions are in the lower latitudes where forcing is greater. It will interesting to see if this ash makes it into the stratosphere. Welcome to the forum! Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Thank you Yes, welcome to another SE Michigander....and if that volcano has any effect, lets hope its in a good way, not a bad way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Speculate no further: Chad's winter outlook has arrived! http://blogs.wlfi.com/2012/09/14/fall-winter-spring-summer-2012-13-outlook-2/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=WLFI+Weather+Team+18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Speculate no further: Chad's winter outlook has arrived! http://blogs.wlfi.co...Weather Team 18 Anyone whose winter outlook goes week by week at this timeframe is not worth reading. He's making a call with no white christmas already. Is he really expecting anyone to take this more serious than a grain of salt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Anyone whose winter outlook goes week by week at this timeframe is not worth reading. He's making a call with no white christmas already. Is he really expecting anyone to take this more serious than a grain of salt? My thinking is along the same line. It way too early to make an accurate call on winter. I wouldn't dare make up a week by week forecast in September ~ maybe by early November at the soonest. This will be a weak El Niño and that usually doesn't result in a giant ridge over the central U.S.. It gets on my nerves that when a news outlet hears the first mentioned of El Niño they automatically assume will see a 1997-98 repeat with wet, coolish south and warm/blow torch dry across the entire northern 1/2 of the country! lol - That's only in a strong El Niño. Lesser strength El Niño's are a whole 'nother deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I believe this is his third year of doing really detail winter weather outlooks. I actually interned with him when he first started at WLFI back in 2009. He's really enthusiastic about climatology and especially analog forecasting. He has several cabinets full of historical weather data from the Midwest. I didn't mind the first one he did because it was pretty vague, but last year's upset me a lot, because he was calling for specific events (like an EF3/4 tornado in the middle of April), which is huge public disservice IMO. I know he's also gotten in hot water for doing his own storm surveys that went against what the NWS found. Specifically, I think he called some damage from a QLCS line in 2010 near Thorntown a tornado after the NWS survey called it straight line winds. It's neat that he's trying to do this, but these forecasts have no quality or value (see my post from a few days ago). He's a nice guy, but I really, really don't like these forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I believe this is his third year of doing really detail winter weather outlooks. I actually interned with him when he first started at WLFI back in 2009. He's really enthusiastic about climatology and especially analog forecasting. He has several cabinets full of historical weather data from the Midwest. I didn't mind the first one he did because it was pretty vague, but last year's upset me a lot, because he was calling for specific events (like an EF3/4 tornado in the middle of April), which is huge public disservice IMO. I know he's also gotten in hot water for doing his own storm surveys that went against what the NWS found. Specifically, I think he called some damage from a QLCS line in 2010 near Thorntown a tornado after the NWS survey called it straight line winds. It's neat that he's trying to do this, but these forecasts have no quality or value (see my post from a few days ago). He's a nice guy, but I really, really don't like these forecasts. Totally agree. He is way too specific for his own good. Who puts out a forecast with exact temp/precip anomalies a year in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Speculate no further: Chad's winter outlook has arrived! http://blogs.wlfi.co...Weather Team 18 Like the forecast, hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Like the forecast, hope it's right. Ever since last winter's all around bust, everyone is predicting above normal regardless of signals. This is the going forecast for every season and every month for the unforseen future. This autumns forecast of above normal is going to bust first of all. The earth is slightly warmer then the 30 year average, so its just a safe bet to go above normal on all forecasts. The chance of success if greater then 50% with that logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I'm going with the good old reliable CFS1 all the way. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/usT2mMon.gif Classic Nino. Cool fall, warm December, winter back end loaded. I'm going to ignore the train wreck that is the CFS2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 Ever since last winter's all around bust, everyone is predicting above normal regardless of signals. This is the going forecast for every season and every month for the unforseen future. Normalcy bias. Remember a huge part of the reason most of the 2011-2012 forecasts busted is because people figured since the last few years were so snowy that it would continue into 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 LES might be insane with these warm lakes too. Provided this early season cold blast doesn't cool off the lakes too much before we get some really cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I'm going by pure speculation and saying DTW will get its first 6+ inch snowstorm by Dec 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 From coastalWX in SNE sub... Think we could def work with this. "New Euro Sip seasonals are in. They still feature a big AK ridge and a weak looking +NAO type deal near Hudson Bay. They also have weak SE ridging...possibly the result of a typical SW cutoff low that is depicted. Temp anomalies look near normal across practically the entire US with the great lakes being a little colder than normal. This is the DJF forecast." "Encouraging to see those and from what I can see..I don't see anything wrong or red flags given that. It would be nice to have a little blocking overall, but I bet mixed in there..are probably some -NAO deals. It actually keeps Europe chilly which happens during blocking. Europe is sensitive to the NAO. Having a little se ridging probably also means a storm track nearby. Another thing we want." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I'm going by pure speculation and saying DTW will get its first 6+ inch snowstorm by Dec 18th Yes, this adds more value to the overall discussion than someone posting a D10 prog of the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Yes, this adds more value to the overall discussion than someone posting a D10 prog of the EURO. This winter can't be much worse than last's can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I'm going by pure speculation and saying DTW will get its first 6+ inch snowstorm by Dec 18th Hope your speculation is right! I will be off work from Dec 15-25 so I certainly am hoping for some good pre-Christmas snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 This winter can't be much worse than last's can it? People said next summer couldn't be much hotter than the last after Summer 2010 and Summer 2011 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 This winter can't be much worse than last's can it? I thought 2009-10 was a once in a lifetime heartbreaker winter. Two years later, we did worse. I think the odds are that this winter will be an improvement over last year's, just because, despite their increasing frequency, sub 60cm/24" winters are still anomalous for Toronto. However, it's an El Nino and those don't tend to do us any favours. 80-90cm (30-35") is my call based on Nino climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I thought 2009-10 was a once in a lifetime heartbreaker winter. Two years later, we did worse. I think the odds are that this winter will be an improvement over last year's, just because, despite their increasing frequency, sub 60cm/24" winters are still anomalous for Toronto. However, it's an El Nino and those don't tend to do us any favours. 80-90cm (30-35") is my call based on Nino climo. Yeah but El Ninos can be snowy ala 1977-78 or 2002-03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Yeah but El Ninos can be snowy ala 1977-78 or 2002-03 Not to mention that weak Ninos usually lead to COLDER than normal winters. Never before had a Nino been more publicized before, during, and after its effects in 1997-98, and it turned out to be one of the strongest on record. But it AMAZES me that when they hear the word "Nino" many think of 97-98. Lets see, how many ninos have we had since then? 2002-03, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2009-10, 3 of which saw heavy snowfall in much of the eastern half of the US, and ALL of which had periods of cold that 1997-98 never touched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 People said next summer couldn't be much hotter than the last after Summer 2010 and Summer 2011 as well. In my opinion, summer 2012 was king for heat over 2010/11. We simply look at "rankings" for hottest summers based on mean temp at stations with such extreme UHI that overnight lows play a huge part, but for actual extreme heat this summer was the worst (or best if you like heat). Winter is a different story...there are so many more factors than the mean temperature....storm track, lake effect, snowcover, etc. After years of heavy snowfall, we were certainly due for a crappy winter, and we got one. But it was the COMBINATION of lack of snowcover, lack of snowstorms, and mild weather that made winter so bad (remember, we were one of the "lucky" ones here with enough small snowfalls to miss our top 20 snow futility list, many others did not). So even if this is a crappy winter, ONE of the factors (snow, snowcover, cold) is bound to be better. My instinct on this winter, with a weak nino and a near nationwide crap winter last year...is this will be a GOOD year. Not like 2010-11, but leaps and bounds better than 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 From coastalWX in SNE sub... Think we could def work with this. "New Euro Sip seasonals are in. They still feature a big AK ridge and a weak looking +NAO type deal near Hudson Bay. They also have weak SE ridging...possibly the result of a typical SW cutoff low that is depicted. Temp anomalies look near normal across practically the entire US with the great lakes being a little colder than normal. This is the DJF forecast." "Encouraging to see those and from what I can see..I don't see anything wrong or red flags given that. It would be nice to have a little blocking overall, but I bet mixed in there..are probably some -NAO deals. It actually keeps Europe chilly which happens during blocking. Europe is sensitive to the NAO. Having a little se ridging probably also means a storm track nearby. Another thing we want." Interesting... Even a neutral NAO can deliver for this region. Hearing that there will be an Alaskan ridge present, is encouraging. They won't be hogging all the cold and snow this winter. A SE ridge could mean some lake cutters during DJF or at least a storm track that is favorable for most of us on this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Yeah but El Ninos can be snowy ala 1977-78 or 2002-03 Or 2004-05. But those are exceptions. Nino's on average feature less snow than neutral ENSO, and even less than La Ninas. That's why I say odds are against us. But not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Snowday.us winter forecast is out.. http://snowday1.wordpress.com/2012/09/16/winter-forecast-2012-2013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Snowday.us winter forecast is out.. http://snowday1.word...cast-2012-2013/ Anytime someone has '76-77, '77-78, '09-10, and '08-09 as analogs, it makes them look just a tad bit biased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Interesting... Even a neutral NAO can deliver for this region. Hearing that there will be an Alaskan ridge present, is encouraging. They won't be hogging all the cold and snow this winter. A SE ridge could mean some lake cutters during DJF or at least a storm track that is favorable for most of us on this subforum. pretty much what i was thinking too. last thing i want is to much unfavorable blocking.. How much snow did you have in 1951/52? That winter has been mixed in a couple times with some analog talk in the SNE sub-forum but it sounds like it was not to good of a winter out there... was pretty darn good snow wise here..not sure about temps... about 38" of snow fell outside of D/J/F with 12.4" in November. We haven't had a 12"+ Nov. since 1995/96 so you could kinda say we're statistically (one every 17 yrs) due lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Interesting... Even a neutral NAO can deliver for this region. Hearing that there will be an Alaskan ridge present, is encouraging. They won't be hogging all the cold and snow this winter. A SE ridge could mean some lake cutters during DJF or at least a storm track that is favorable for most of us on this subforum. Positive NAO winters aren't a complete bust either. Which I'll show in detail soon. pretty much what i was thinking too. last thing i want is to much unfavorable blocking.. How much snow did you have in 1951/52? That winter has been mixed in a couple times with some analog talk in the SNE sub-forum but it sounds like it was not to good of a winter out there... was pretty darn good snow wise here..not sure about temps... about 38" of snow fell outside of D/J/F with 12.4" in November. We haven't had a 12"+ Nov. since 1995/96 so you could kinda say we're statistically (one every 17 yrs) due lol Pretty warm. Positive NAO winter as well. NDJ: +2.5 DJF: +1.5 JFM: -0.6 Season snowfall totals for a few sites in 1951-52. Des Moines: 32.8" Moline: 45.9" Chicago: 66.4" Indianapolis: 15.7" South Bend: 78.8" Cleveland: 75.6" Duluth: 72.2" Minneapolis: 79.0" Green Bay: 52.4" LaCrosse: 67.5" Milwaukee: 90.8" Detroit: 58.6" Grand Rapids: 132.0" (record snowiest) Toronto: 70.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Thanks much, Chi. Kinna what I figured it to look like. well off to see whats going down at the lake front. Y'all have a great Sunday evening. Just noticed you added snowfall totals for areas. I think us to the north would sign up for that right now. did Laf at least get avg snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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