Stebo Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I swear if I see the phrase "winter battle zone" one more time imma explode Yeah it is a silly thing to say. Btw that outlook it totally like a JB outlook. I mean cold and above normal snow along the East Coast. Might as well just put the same outlook every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I'm I missing something with GB and the Firsthand Weather's forecast for the 6 month period? http://firsthandweather.com/blog/all-posts/firsthand-weathers-20122013-preliminary-winter-forecast Up here in Minnesota, Western WI he is forecasting above normal temps for the two month period Nov and Dec of +1 - +3. Near normal for Jan and Feb. Blow torch warm for March and April at +3 to +5. But yet when he puts out his overall temp forecast for the 6 month period he shows it below normal??? Doesn't that argue for above normal temps up here w/o a iceberg cold period in Jan /Feb? Second of all, some local knowledge would be helpful. If we are going to see below normal temps up here, we have to solve the drought conditions in NE/IA in my opinion. Without any snow pack in IA/NE any southwest winds or southerly winds will bring warmer than normal temps to our area. The same holds true if we get into a zonal flow, it better be cold to the west of us. The same holds true if we get into NW flow, how warm/cold will the temps be to our northwest? Therefore without any guidance showing below normal temps for Dec-Jan ( the IRI, CFSv2 and the Jamstec ) my initial thinking for MN and Western WI, is above normal temps and below normal snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I'm I missing something with GB and the Firsthand Weather's forecast for the 6 month period? http://firsthandweat...winter-forecast Up here in Minnesota, Western WI he is forecasting above normal temps for the two month period Nov and Dec of +1 - +3. Near normal for Jan and Feb. Blow torch warm for March and April at +3 to +5. But yet when he puts out his overall temp forecast for the 6 month period he shows it below normal??? Doesn't that argue for above normal temps up here w/o a iceberg cold period in Jan /Feb? Second of all, some local knowledge would be helpful. If we are going to see below normal temps up here, we have to solve the drought conditions in NE/IA in my opinion. Without any snow pack in IA/NE any southwest winds or southerly winds will bring warmer than normal temps to our area. The same holds true if we get into a zonal flow, it better be cold to the west of us. The same holds true if we get into NW flow, how warm/cold will the temps be to our northwest? Therefore without any guidance showing below normal temps for Dec-Jan ( the IRI, CFSv2 and the Jamstec ) my initial thinking for MN and Western WI, is above normal temps and below normal snow fall. Yeah, I went eek when I saw the prediction of below average temps and below average snowfall for most of the region. This would just add insult to injury. Most on this forum don't want below average temps if snowfall will be rather scarce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I honestly wouldnt take these long range forecasts all that seriously. It hard enough to predict the weather a few days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I'll take cold with no snow after last year, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I'll take cold with no snow after last year, thanks. You are in the minority I think. Cold with no snow would be terrible. What a horrible, boring waste that would be. I'd take average temps with less snow than average over that kind of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Cold with no snow is pretty useless imo unless you are able to make your own snow. The exception would be extreme/record cold as that is more exciting to track but it's harder to get extreme cold without a good snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Cold with no snow is pretty useless imo unless you are able to make your own snow. The exception would be extreme/record cold as that is more exciting to track but it's harder to get extreme cold without a good snow pack. Exactly, although I suppose the point can be made that record cold in the winter after this record hot summer would be quite exciting and anamolous, but ideally there would be at least close to average snow to make it worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I saw that Chad is coming out with his new Lafayette September 2012-August 2013 outlook on Saturday. I decided to go back and check his monthly forecasts (temp, precip and snowfall) from last year to see if he beat climatology (climo and actual stats from WL coop) in any meaningful way. The answer, of course, is no. But to what degree? Here are his Brier scores (forecasts - observations)^2 versus climatology's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 You are in the minority I think. Cold with no snow would be terrible. What a horrible, boring waste that would be. I'd take average temps with less snow than average over that kind of winter. Yeah, I am. I guess all the agw talk has me freaked a little bit. I would rather have a normal winter temp wise than a lot of snow, just to prove that it still can get cold again... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 You are in the minority I think. Cold with no snow would be terrible. What a horrible, boring waste that would be. I'd take average temps with less snow than average over that kind of winter. Well...cold with no snow is certainly NOT fun...but id STILL take my chances over a mild winter. Because its not like there will literally be NO snow...so what little falls should at least stay on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Yeah, I am. I guess all the agw talk has me freaked a little bit. I would rather have a normal winter temp wise than a lot of snow, just to prove that it still can get cold again... lol. Try not to let it freak you out. Of course it can get cold again.....we had several cold winters this past decade...two hot summers and a mild winter in between is JUST what the agw-istas needed to have their circle ****, but the truth of the matter is once we get out of the warm pattern, they will quiet down some, just as they did during the recent harsh 2010-11 winter. They always insist that the weather pattern we are having in the U.S. isnt what influences their agw talk, but Ive seen it over and over, and sorry, that is how it always works. Whats more...do not forget...they can talk agw all they want, but you live in a climate where winters are already so cold that mild winters mean nothing wrt snowfall...THAT is all about storm track. Winter will always be winter, that is near certain, in all of our lifetimes for those of us N of I-80. What actually happens with temps remains to be seen, but gray skies and snowstorms are going nowhere. And I would love for you to see a brutally cold winter that suppresses the storm track slightly south for ORD-DTW-CLE specials Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Try not to let it freak you out. Of course it can get cold again.....we had several cold winters this past decade...two hot summers and a mild winter in between is JUST what the agw-istas needed to have their circle ****, but the truth of the matter is once we get out of the warm pattern, they will quiet down some, just as they did during the recent harsh 2010-11 winter. They always insist that the weather pattern we are having in the U.S. isnt what influences their agw talk, but Ive seen it over and over, and sorry, that is how it always works. Whats more...do not forget...they can talk agw all they want, but you live in a climate where winters are already so cold that mild winters mean nothing wrt snowfall...THAT is all about storm track. Winter will always be winter, that is near certain, in all of our lifetimes for those of us N of I-80. What actually happens with temps remains to be seen, but gray skies and snowstorms are going nowhere. And I would love for you to see a brutally cold winter that suppresses the storm track slightly south for ORD-DTW-CLE specials That sounds like a nightmare but it happens. lol, I am sure we will both get our shot at snowstorms this coming winter, at least hope for an average winter at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Try not to let it freak you out. Of course it can get cold again.....we had several cold winters this past decade...two hot summers and a mild winter in between is JUST what the agw-istas needed to have their circle ****, but the truth of the matter is once we get out of the warm pattern, they will quiet down some, just as they did during the recent harsh 2010-11 winter. They always insist that the weather pattern we are having in the U.S. isnt what influences their agw talk, but Ive seen it over and over, and sorry, that is how it always works. Whats more...do not forget...they can talk agw all they want, but you live in a climate where winters are already so cold that mild winters mean nothing wrt snowfall...THAT is all about storm track. Winter will always be winter, that is near certain, in all of our lifetimes for those of us N of I-80. What actually happens with temps remains to be seen, but gray skies and snowstorms are going nowhere. And I would love for you to see a brutally cold winter that suppresses the storm track slightly south for ORD-DTW-CLE specials Lookin' cold this winter ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Ah yes, that old reliable CFS, that had us torching all thru August... we ended up .2 degrees above normal up here... then had a mega torch in September until the last week of August when it started showing normal to below in the eastern half of the US. Yeah, it's old reliable all right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Lookin' cold this winter ... I see you learned how to paint. Very impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Well...cold with no snow is certainly NOT fun...but id STILL take my chances over a mild winter. Because its not like there will literally be NO snow...so what little falls should at least stay on the ground. I agree, but still, if it's just going to be clipper city with cold temps, I think I'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I agree, but still, if it's just going to be clipper city with cold temps, I think I'll pass. Clippers can deliver good snowfall sometimes so all hope would not be lost if it were a parade of them. I would prefer storms from the southwest though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 caught my first whiff of the snow bug today...looking forward to the changing seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 With how dry its been, i'm not buying the blowtorch winter ...don't care what the models say. Still think we have a good shot at some cold air, even if overall it ends above normal. Who knows. Long range forecasting isn't reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Clippers can deliver good snowfall sometimes so all hope would not be lost if it were a parade of them. I would prefer storms from the southwest though. Sometimes you can make up some good ground with a handful of high ratio snow producing Clippers. But of course the SW storms are best with laying down deep snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I'm ready for dreary rain and upper 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I would also like a low pressure to stall out over Sudbury Ontario.... For a week. In January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 I'm ready for dreary rain and upper 40's. Anything but that (well, except lake stratus). I'll be a happy camper if we can keep that to a minimum this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 And I would love for you to see a brutally cold winter that suppresses the storm track slightly south for ORD-DTW-CLE ORD-DTW-YYZ specials Fixed. At least if all else fails for Cleveland, they always have Lake Erie to depend on (like last season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 A cold winter without a lot of snow would just be pure hell, like a hot summer without a lot of severe weather is to many on here. Perfection is temps around 25*F-35*F and frequent snowstorms/lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 A cold winter without a lot of snow would just be pure hell, like a hot summer without a lot of severe weather is to many on here.Perfection is temps around 25*F-35*F and frequent snowstorms/lake effect snow. No to 35. I would prefer to never see a high over 25 until March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 No to 35. I would prefer to never see a high over 25 until March 1st. Yeah I will pass on the coldest winter ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I'm ready for a pretty cold winter after all this heat this year. Maybe nothing record breaking, but cold nonetheless. I love snowstorms in the upper 20s, snow isn't that wet or too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The G Man Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Now there's a wild card in the mix. How will this event affect Winter, nevermind the fall forecasts? http://uk.reuters.co...E88C1DJ20120913 The volcano, 25 miles (40 km) southwest of the capital Guatemala City, erupted in the early afternoon, belching a cloud of ash above the crater, Guatemala's emergency agency CONRED said in a statement.Roughly 11,000 people have been evacuated and 8,000 more were awaiting transfer to shelters, said Sergio Cabanas, CONRED's director of emergency response. Up to 10,000 others could be moved to safety depending on wind conditions and ash emissions, he added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.