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Winter 2012-2013 General Discussion

Powerball

By Powerball,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

We probably wouldn't see back to back sub 6" months in the dead of winter, even last winter we didn't see that and last winter sucked.

You are probably right. It happened more in the past than it does now. Id just like to see a snowy Nov/Dec/Mar....but would certainly love for Jan/Feb to stay snowy as theyve been year in and year out.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Accuweather would seem to agree as they are calling for, at least, a warm and dry Fall in the Lakes and northeast.

http://www.accuweath...-forecast/68844

Seriously, given the trend in the weather over the past year, you wouldn't want to bet against the next Fall/winter being warm.

Per Harry, most long range models show a trough over the lakes most of the winter.

And given the trend, that is the exact reason Id say to bet against next Fall and winter being warm...its time for the trend to be broken. Nothing like a hot summer to cold winter transition (see 2010).

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Climate models suck and even when they are right, it is the odds.

Climo says cooler developing at some point and warmer winter.

Agree 100% about climate models. I was pointing out the trough depictions simply because of torchys talk of the canadian.

But I do have to ask....what do you mean by climo says "warmer winter"?

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Since these get a lot of praise on here...per Harry the euro monthlies updated again. They have us ( southern-lower/eastern lakes ) at/below normal temps from October right till March 1st. N-D-J-F Slightly below normal temps with Nov/Jan showing the coldest departures. Near normal temps for Dec and Feb with Feb looking very nino'ish as it shows the above normal warmth from the northern Plains up into Canada and the coldest temps along the eastcoast and S/SE part of the country.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Since these get a lot of praise on here...per Harry the euro monthlies updated again. They have us ( southern-lower/eastern lakes ) at/below normal temps from October right till March 1st. N-D-J-F Slightly below normal temps with Nov/Jan showing the coldest departures. Near normal temps for Dec and Feb with Feb looking very nino'ish as it shows the above normal warmth from the northern Plains up into Canada and the coldest temps along the eastcoast and S/SE part of the country.

That sorta flies in the face of usual Nino results. I thought February tended to be the coldest and/or snowiest in general if I'm not mistaken.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

That sorta flies in the face of usual Nino results. I thought February tended to be the coldest and/or snowiest in general if I'm not mistaken.

Using Indianapolis for all Nino winters since 1951-52. Coldest month relative to the normals I'm using below...

1951-52 to 2011-12 DJFM averages: 31.8/27.1/31.2/41.5

Season:Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar

1951-52: 30.6/33.1/35.3/39.8

1952-53: 34.9/32.9/35.6/42.1

1953-54: 32.8/30.8/40.1/37.6

1957-58: 36.2/28.1/23.7/35.9

1958-59: 24.2/24.9/31.7/38.8

1963-64: 18.5/30.7/29.0/40.6

1965-66: 38.6/22.4/30.4/43.3

1968-69: 30.6/25.7/31.7/35.7

1969-70: 28.2/17.9/28.6/38.1

1972-73: 31.9/30.7/31.5/49.4

1976-77: 24.6/10.3/28.2/46.5

1977-78: 29.2/18.2/17.8/36.7

1982-83: 40.2/30.6/35.5/42.9

1986-87: 32.3/27.6/35.5/44.5

1987-88: 35.8/25.9/27.2/41.4

1991-92: 35.7/31.5/38.4/43.2

1994-95: 38.9/28.6/30.0/45.0

1997-98: 33.4/36.6/40.8/42.0

2002-03: 33.0/21.7/25.4/43.3

2004-05: 31.8/30.7/36.3/38.3

2006-07: 38.8/32.5/19.7/49.0

2009-10: 31.1/24.6/26.0/45.9

December: 4

January: 3

February: 7

March: 8

Taking March out of the equation...

December: 10

January: 5

February: 7

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Carefully use the word " won't"

It's weather bro.

I kinda worded that crappily. The CFS changes, sometimes drastically, seemingly every few days. I meant that theres no possible chance that that map stays pretty steady that way til November and verifies. Its like the lottery. One of the CFS's various winter forecasts will probably come close to verifying, but with it updating/changing so frequently that when looking back itll be like finding a needle in a haystack to find the actual winning model run lol. But yes, the winters temp departures may indeed look like that, anything is certainly possible.

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Tropical

Tropical

Posted
Posted

Forecasters predict below-normal snowfall this winter

The verdict is in: Milwaukee will have another relatively warm, relatively low-snow winter.

That's the best guess released Wednesday as part of the 2012-'13 winter outlook by the forecasting service Accuweather. Jeff Craven, a science operations officer at the National Weather Service in Sullivan, said the forecast for the Midwest jibes with the predictions the weather service has been making since last winter.

Craven and the Accuweather forecasters base their predictions on a weak to moderate El Niño pattern that's expected this winter. El Niño patterns aren't the only factor that can determine seasonal precipitation and temperatures, but a break from a warmer and less snowy pattern would be an exception to the rule.

"All things being equal, it looks like another subpar year for the cross-country skiers and snowmobilers," Craven said.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/forecasters-predict-belownormal-snowfall-this-winter-sm6gq9v-166298296.html

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toronto blizzard

toronto blizzard

Posted
Posted

Forecasters predict below-normal snowfall this winter

The verdict is in: Milwaukee will have another relatively warm, relatively low-snow winter.

That's the best guess released Wednesday as part of the 2012-'13 winter outlook by the forecasting service Accuweather. Jeff Craven, a science operations officer at the National Weather Service in Sullivan, said the forecast for the Midwest jibes with the predictions the weather service has been making since last winter.

Craven and the Accuweather forecasters base their predictions on a weak to moderate El Niño pattern that's expected this winter. El Niño patterns aren't the only factor that can determine seasonal precipitation and temperatures, but a break from a warmer and less snowy pattern would be an exception to the rule.

"All things being equal, it looks like another subpar year for the cross-country skiers and snowmobilers," Craven said.

http://www.jsonline....-166298296.html

I find it amazing that they already know what the winter will bring because of a weak to moderate El Nino. They just think El nino automatically equals a warm dry winter. SMH at Accuweather and the NWS.

I mean look at last year they all said cold and snowy because of La nina and look what happened.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

I find it amazing that they already know what the winter will bring because of a weak to moderate El Nino. They just think El nino automatically equals a warm dry winter. SMH at Accuweather and the NWS.

I mean look at last year they all said cold and snowy because of La nina and look what happened.

All that article on Milwaukee was written based off of an accuweather-graphic that accompanied an articled focused on the east coast.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820

Those same accuweather forecasters predicted "another year buried in snow" for 2011-12, with conditions even "worse than 2010-11" and that "Chicago residents will want to move". :lol:

If accuweathers forecast verified (better odds playing the lottery) it would be much better for Detroit to Toronto than Chicago to Minneapolis (the accuweather artists seem too be channeling the 2002-03 nino).

For another article that should be taken with a grain of salt...get ready for lots of snow in the Lakes.

http://greatlakesecho.org/2012/08/14/summer-heat-could-produce-more-winter-snow-in-great-lakes-region/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+greatlakesecho%2Fall+%28Great+Lakes+Echo+%28All%29%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

All of that aside....if you are going to have a Nino winter, weak or weak to moderate is definitely what snowlovers in this region want. Though as 2009-10 and several pre-1950 strong Ninos showed, strong isnt necessarily a nail in the coffin anyway, just a much greater odds of a crappy winter.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Also as a reminder...here is a link that Chicagowx compiled that shows snowfall for many cities in the Lakes region since 1950, broken down by Enso (and enso strength).

http://www.americanw...totals-by-enso/

Also of note....pre-1950 enso years are never discussed, though weve been seeing some very interesting correlations in recent years with them, and they are never mentioned. Harry, hopefully when you have time you could compile a list of such pre-1950 years?

2010-11 and 2011-12 were both Nina winters. One was a winter of snowstorm after snowstorm, burying the region in depths of snow not seen for a long time, and LASTING a long time.....2011-12 was one of a barren landscape and mild air, with just fleeting bouts of snow and snowpack. Couldnt get more different if you tried to be quite honest. ENSO is just ONE piece of the puzzle. Ultimately PDP, NAO, etc will have big implications, as always.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Neutral to weak El Niño conditions typically brings generous amounts of wintry weather to the GL's. Accuweather is acting like this is going to be a big El Niño, when there is no evidence for that! Now the ONI doesn't set in stone what are winter will be like, but if there is blocking, then there will no doubt be a fair share of cold and snow. The moderate El Niño of 09-10 brought 60.2" here and the weak El Niño of 06-07 brought 53.4" of snow. Newest 30 year snowfall average is 43.8" at UGN.

I suspect that Canada will see an earlier snow cover build up then usual given the temperature trends up north this summer.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

I find it amazing that they already know what the winter will bring because of a weak to moderate El Nino. They just think El nino automatically equals a warm dry winter. SMH at Accuweather and the NWS.

I mean look at last year they all said cold and snowy because of La nina and look what happened.

Get ready for plenty more like that if Nino is the assumption.

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wxman1952

wxman1952

Posted
Posted

I remember accuweather last year calling for a cold and snowy winter here in the midwest , worng! lol I think the weather service from Japan was the only one to call for a mild winter last year. I think they have called cor a cold and snowy one for us. Sems like I remember them saying this several months ago too. Time will tell.

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