Winter 2012-2013 General Discussion

[BowMeHunter]

Gotta feeling this winter will be awfully slow to start and will have a fast ending.

[tropical] [/quote}

[dmc76]

Working in Berrian Springs and Niles, MI. LES runs through my mind all day.

[Powerball]

Gotta feeling this winter will be awfully slow to start and will have a fast ending.

Just by eyeballing some of the possible 1950-present analogs (1991, 1976, 2002, 2006, 1959, 1974, etc.), most of them featured average to above average snowfall in November, and even measurable snowfall in October.

[SpartyOn]

Just by eyeballing some of the possible 1950-present analogs (1991, 1976, 2002, 2006, 1959, 1974, etc.), most of them featured average to above average snowfall in November, and even measurable snowfall in October.

Haven't seen a white Haloween in many many years. The last many Falls have been torchy like no other.

[michsnowfreak]

Haven't seen a white Haloween in many many years. The last many Falls have been torchy like no other.

Weve never seen a white Halloween lol. Though there was 0.1" reported in I think 1993.

I think it will be a long winter with a harsher beginning and ending and a tamer middle, ie with Dec and Mar the snowiest months. Weve been OWNING Jan/Feb snowfall in recent years, the average is already going to be shooting up like crazy in those months (even this past winter those 2 months were near normal after snowmageddon the previous several years). So maybe this year we will have a relatively tame (though certainly not snowless) Jan/Feb, with some good Nov/Dec and Mar snowiness. We are way overdue for a snowy November.

[SpartyOn]

Weve never seen a white Halloween lol. Though there was 0.1" reported in I think 1993.

I think it will be a long winter with a harsher beginning and ending and a tamer middle, ie with Dec and Mar the snowiest months. Weve been OWNING Jan/Feb snowfall in recent years, the average is already going to be shooting up like crazy in those months (even this past winter those 2 months were near normal after snowmageddon the previous several years). So maybe this year we will have a relatively tame (though certainly not snowless) Jan/Feb, with some good Nov/Dec and Mar snowiness. We are way overdue for a snowy November.

I specifically remember trick or treating in slushy snow. In fact I have a picture. It might have been 93 now that I think about so there is nothing to "lol" about. Did DTW record a tenth? What did the northern burbs/Davison-Holy area clock in at?

Looks like you remember it too... Some old school easternwx posts by you..

Posted 15 August 2006 - 07:55 AM

The infamous 10/19/89 snowstorm dumped 2.7" at DTW (its the 2nd snowiest Oct only behind 2.9" in Oct 1980)...but being 6 I dont remember it.

I remember a slight coating of snow and what seemed bitter cold when I was trick-or-treating in 1993 (DTW records show 0.3" snow on 10/31)....then I remember lightning and snow in Oct 1997 but only a slight coating (a rain to snow event that left several inches NW of Detroit)....then flurries on Oct 8, 2000 were so early it was weird (it was my UofM open house prepping for college...and it was outside!!!).....then snow/sleet showers on 3 consecutive days in Oct 2001. But thats all I remember...need a real storm to put in the memory bank!

[dmc76]

Yes Sparty it was 1993. We had a slushy 1-2". I Remember it well.

[Geos]

I remember a late October snowfall, which caused major headaches around here. Might have been the 1993 event mentioned above. Seen snow on Halloween before.

I don't think that this fall will be as warm as the last few, late into the season. Near normal temperatures for the Lakes after mid-October is what I'm guessing with a developing weak El Niño.

[michsnowfreak]

I specifically remember trick or treating in slushy snow. In fact I have a picture. It might have been 93 now that I think about so there is nothing to "lol" about. Did DTW record a tenth? What did the northern burbs/Davison-Holy area clock in at?

Looks like you remember it too... Some old school easternwx posts by you..

Posted 15 August 2006 - 07:55 AM

The infamous 10/19/89 snowstorm dumped 2.7" at DTW (its the 2nd snowiest Oct only behind 2.9" in Oct 1980)...but being 6 I dont remember it.

I remember a slight coating of snow and what seemed bitter cold when I was trick-or-treating in 1993 (DTW records show 0.3" snow on 10/31)....then I remember lightning and snow in Oct 1997 but only a slight coating (a rain to snow event that left several inches NW of Detroit)....then flurries on Oct 8, 2000 were so early it was weird (it was my UofM open house prepping for college...and it was outside!!!).....then snow/sleet showers on 3 consecutive days in Oct 2001. But thats all I remember...need a real storm to put in the memory bank!

Yes I do remember that.....when I said Detroits never had a White Halloween, I was thinkin in terms of the way we think of "White Christmas", ie, 1"+ snow on the ground. But the more I think about it, its HALLOWEEN for cripes sake, any flake of snow on that date should be considered a "White" Halloween. And as dmc pointed out, though it was very miniscule here, northern burbs probably had 1-2" slush.

Though snow flurries arent uncommon in October, Detroit has only had a handful of Halloweens with snow:

1917: a trace of snow fell and was on the ground, a record cold high of only 34F

1925: no snow fell, but a trace remained on the ground from 2.0" on the 28th (and record cold from the 28-30th)

1993: 0.1" snow fell at DTW, though 0 was on the ground at obs time

Its funny because snow in the days leading up to Halloween and the days immediately after has been a much more common occurrance than actually ON the 31st. Though there have been a handful of trick-or-treat temps in the 20s.

[SpartyOn]

The kids might be trick or treating with shorts on this year. Wouldn't be shocked if it's in the 70s or near 80.

[BowMeHunter]

lol

[daddylonglegs]

Looking into my crystal balls and I see BowMe getting a 100's of inches of lake induced snowfall...I see a huge high pressure straight out of the bowels of the north pole sliding down to the west of MKE...strong low pressure off to the east....strong N/NE winds over the still (in January) 68F lake water... snowfall rates will be stupendous. Saukville banana crusher for sure..

[BeastFromTheEast]

Looking into my crystal balls and I see BowMe getting a 100's of inches of lake induced snowfall...I see a huge high pressure straight out of the bowels of the north pole sliding down to the west of MKE...strong low pressure off to the east....strong N/NE winds over the still (in January) 68F lake water... snowfall rates will be stupendous. Saukville banana crusher for sure..

[andyhb]

Ugh, **** this pattern...

[gracetoyou]

I know a lot of the easteners are drooling at the thought of a mod nino but after what happened last winter, I would be very cautious about using enso for forecasting the winter.

My unscientific suspicion is that last winter was less of an anomaly than we want to believe, and more likely the beginning of a stretch of mild winters ahead, (whether it last 3 winters or 10). That being said, we still should be able to see some wild 'events' to keep things interesting.

Please remember that while it was mild in the U.S. it was a bitterly cold winter in other parts of the world: Alaska & parts of Europe & Asia it was bad. It was the unusual pattern not AGW. When the "globe" is mild for winter then we'll talk about that.

[Stebo]

The kids might be trick or treating with shorts on this year. Wouldn't be shocked if it's in the 70s or near 80.

This is as delusional as the snow on Halloween is, sure both have a tiny chance of being right but the odds are stacked so much against it that it is fool hearty to even mention it.

[Brewers]

Looking into my crystal balls and I see BowMe getting a 100's of inches of lake induced snowfall...I see a huge high pressure straight out of the bowels of the north pole sliding down to the west of MKE...strong low pressure off to the east....strong N/NE winds over the still (in January) 68F lake water... snowfall rates will be stupendous. Saukville banana crusher for sure..

Now that would be my type of winter.

[SpartyOn]

This is as delusional as the snow on Halloween is, sure both have a tiny chance of being right but the odds are stacked so much against it that it is fool hearty to even mention it.

What year was it that we hit the 70s on Haloween. 2003? Or 04 The odds are slim but it's happened before. Basically I was being sarcastic and complaining about the pattern. I would much rather have cool fall this year than what we have normally seen these past years.

[dmc76]

What year was it that we hit the 70s on Haloween. 2003? Or 04 The odds are slim but it's happened before. Basically I was being sarcastic and complaining about the pattern. I would much rather have cool fall this year than what we have normally seen these past years.

2008

[michsnowfreak]

Halloween 2008 did squeeze out a high of 70F (hi/lo 70/37) but Id take that in a heartbeat if a 2008-09-esque winter were to follow.

Halloween 1950 is the warmest on record, with a high of 79F and low of 60F. Evening temps stayed in the low 70s for trick-or-treaters. November 1, 1950 was actually warmer, high 81F low 64F, and this was the only 80 ever recorded in November. But by Thanksgiving time, we were locked in cold and saw a 6.3" snowstorm clip us from the infamous Appalacians snowstorm. DET went from a depature of +28F on 11/1/50 (81F/64F) to a departure of -24F on 11/24 (17F/7F).

Back to winter though....

my guess of having a front and back-loaded winter with tamer Jan/Feb is based soley on the gut telling me we are overdue for a snowy Nov and Mar and a lower-snow Jan/Feb.

In the last 10 years, DTW's average monthly snowfall has been just ridiculous in Jan/Feb when you consider what the long term 130-yr averages are. February is running over 6" above normal, and this is INCLUDING the few very low-snow Febs the last 10 yrs, including the 2nd least snowy Feb (0.9" - 2004).

2002-03 thru 2011-12:

Oct- T

Nov- 1.0" (long term avg closer to 3")

Dec- 10.8" (long term avg closer to 9")

Jan- 14.1" (long term avg closer to 11")

Feb- 15.2" (long term avg closer to 9")

Mar- 6.0" (long term avg closer to 7")

Apr- 2.0" (right around long term avg)

10-yr avg: 49.1"

So Ill say, if we have a 45" winter, it will look something like this:

Nov- 4"

Dec- 18"

Jan- 5"

Feb- 4"

Mar- 12"

Apr- 2"

Total- 45"

Rather than the more recent trends of something like this:

Nov- T

Dec- 5"

Jan- 16"

Feb 20"

Mar- 2"

Apr- 2"

Total- 45"

[Stebo]

Halloween 2008 did squeeze out a high of 70F (hi/lo 70/37) but Id take that in a heartbeat if a 2008-09-esque winter were to follow.

Halloween 1950 is the warmest on record, with a high of 79F and low of 60F. Evening temps stayed in the low 70s for trick-or-treaters. November 1, 1950 was actually warmer, high 81F low 64F, and this was the only 80 ever recorded in November. But by Thanksgiving time, we were locked in cold and saw a 6.3" snowstorm clip us from the infamous Appalacians snowstorm. DET went from a depature of +28F on 11/1/50 (81F/64F) to a departure of -24F on 11/24 (17F/7F).

Back to winter though....

my guess of having a front and back-loaded winter with tamer Jan/Feb is based soley on the gut telling me we are overdue for a snowy Nov and Mar and a lower-snow Jan/Feb.

In the last 10 years, DTW's average monthly snowfall has been just ridiculous in Jan/Feb when you consider what the long term 130-yr averages are. February is running over 6" above normal, and this is INCLUDING the few very low-snow Febs the last 10 yrs, including the 2nd least snowy Feb (0.9" - 2004).

2002-03 thru 2011-12:

Oct- T

Nov- 1.0" (long term avg closer to 3")

Dec- 10.8" (long term avg closer to 9")

Jan- 14.1" (long term avg closer to 11")

Feb- 15.2" (long term avg closer to 9")

Mar- 6.0" (long term avg closer to 7")

Apr- 2.0" (right around long term avg)

10-yr avg: 49.1"

So Ill say, if we have a 45" winter, it will look something like this:

Nov- 4"

Dec- 18"

Jan- 5"

Feb- 4"

Mar- 12"

Apr- 2"

Total- 45"

Rather than the more recent trends of something like this:

Nov- T

Dec- 5"

Jan- 16"

Feb 20"

Mar- 2"

Apr- 2"

Total- 45"

We probably wouldn't see back to back sub 6" months in the dead of winter, even last winter we didn't see that and last winter sucked.

[mnweather]

We probably wouldn't see back to back sub 6" months in the dead of winter, even last winter we didn't see that and last winter sucked.

Good grief, I had sub 6" months in December and January last Winter, you guys were lucky in Michigan then.

[Geos]

Since the 98-99 winter my average month to month snowfall comes out like this:

Oct.: Trace

Nov.: 3.2"

Dec.: 14.7"

Jan.: 17.3"

Feb.: 13.7"

Mar.: 7.7"

Apr.: 1.2"

[Tropical]

[toronto blizzard]

Why is it that you have to post everything that shows warm for our area? Hasn't it been warm enough for the past year around these parts?

[Chicago WX]

Why is it that you have to post everything that shows warm for our area? Hasn't it been warm enough for the past year around these parts?

Ignore him. Previously banned poster/troll that's still allowed to post here, for whatever reason.

[Tropical]

Why is it that you have to post everything that shows warm for our area? Hasn't it been warm enough for the past year around these parts?

Environmental Canada's outlook has been spot on each season for the past few years.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Environmental Canada's outlook has been spot on each season for the past few years.

Accuweather would seem to agree as they are calling for, at least, a warm and dry Fall in the Lakes and northeast.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-2012-fall-forecast/68844

Seriously, given the trend in the weather over the past year, you wouldn't want to bet against the next Fall/winter being warm.

[toronto blizzard]

Ottawa Blizzard please don't say that. Eventually this horrible pattern will have to break and I think this fall won't be as warm/ dry as accuweather says. Besides they're map resembles a la Nina fall rather than el niño

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Ottawa Blizzard please don't say that. Eventually this horrible pattern will have to break and I think this fall won't be as warm/ dry as accuweather says. Besides they're map resembles a la Nina fall rather than el niño

You have a point here. An El Nino Fall tends to be cold, even if the winter ends up warm. Fall 1997 is a good case in point.