buckeye Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 You never fail to amuse, that's for sure. Seriously, though, I'm thinking if there is a candidate for back to back miserable winters, this would be it, considering a moderate Nino is likely. I know a lot of the easteners are drooling at the thought of a mod nino but after what happened last winter, I would be very cautious about using enso for forecasting the winter. My unscientific suspicion is that last winter was less of an anomaly than we want to believe, and more likely the beginning of a stretch of mild winters ahead, (whether it last 3 winters or 10). That being said, we still should be able to see some wild 'events' to keep things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I know a lot of the easteners are drooling at the thought of a mod nino but after what happened last winter, I would be very cautious about using enso for forecasting the winter. My unscientific suspicion is that last winter was less of an anomaly than we want to believe, and more likely the beginning of a stretch of mild winters ahead, (whether it last 3 winters or 10). That being said, we still should be able to see some wild 'events' to keep things interesting. My general rule of thumb with nino for winters in SE MI: weak el nino: cold and snowy mod el nino: a complete tossup strong el nino: mild, dry, below normal snow Again though you can never forecast based on enso alone. 2009-10 ended up being a strong el nino, and I always thought of '82-83 or '97-98 when thinking strong el nino, but '09-10 wasnt nearly that bad. It was much colder and snowcovered than youd expect with a strong nino (though nino wasnt forecast to get as strong as it did). Some very snowy winters here ('77-78, 2002-03) were weak ninos. A string of mild winters is entirely possible. Not only has it happened dozens of times since records began, one might say we are due after such a snowy spell pre-2012. But theres no doubt that 2011-12 was an anomaly for its widespread extent and extremes. DTW getting 26" was one of the "lucky" ones. ORD ended up at 19.8" (first sub-20" winter in over 60 years), MSP had 22", NYC/BOS had single-digit inches, and on and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 10, 2012 Author Share Posted July 10, 2012 Considering this terrible heatwave, we deserve a inland triple phaser. Rapping up to 943mb over northeast ohio(ok, over nw penn, gotta give Buckeye some love lol). Perfection. And not another Octobomb either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Like snowfreak stated, even if this winter ends up being less in terms of snowfall it might be better in terms of snow cover and cold which I agree with! LES might be insane with these warm lakes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Due for a winter to stress boxed up tropicals.. hopefully they are next up for veg dev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Ahhh, CFS Version 2.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 If it's going to be a neutral to weak El Nino I would lean towards CFS seasonal v1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Ahhh, CFS Version 2.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 It's going to be fun to see the winter forecasts if it looks like neutral conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 After many of last winter's predictions ended up being so horrible it's extremely hard to take any seasonal forecast seriously IMO. It's fun to speculate but IMO it's not much better than looking at a farmers almanac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Last year's long range forecasts cost alot of money for alot of firms, I know for sure about 95% of most outlets got it wrong.. It was the worst Long Range since 2001-2002... If the long term blocking would have broken down properly, some of those forecasts may have actually turned out correct. The rediculously persistent EPO/GOA/Alaskan Low had it's claws in, something we haven't seen in modern times (Last 100 years)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 It's going to be fun to see the winter forecasts if it looks like neutral conditions. After many of last winter's predictions ended up being so horrible it's extremely hard to take any seasonal forecast seriously IMO. It's fun to speculate but IMO it's not much better than looking at a farmers almanac. Bingo. I'm not even going to waste my time reading winter predictions. (Says the man who occasionally peeks at the 384 hr GFS in the winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Bingo. I'm not even going to waste my time reading winter predictions. (Says the man who occasionally peeks at the 384 hr GFS in the winter). If we have neutral conditions I'd guess that there won't be nearly the consensus that there was last winter (which didn't turn out very well). Probably see widely varying outlooks but maybe with a bias toward warm since that is the regime we have been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 With the early turn from winter to spring I might be on the early bandwagon for fall. I have noticed some birds acting strange and gathering in large numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I heard somewhere that the only forecaster to correctly predict our mild winter last year was Japan's weather office. Remember many of ours said we were going to have a cold and snowy winter last year. Well, I also heard that Japan called for us in the midwest anyway for a cold and snowy 2012-13. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Gimme a GHD repeat and it can be high and dry the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 For me, October and November are sealed in dud land for STL. Even if there is blocking from the enormous heat pump that is the Arctic regions. The regions most vital for cold pooling are torching. This will delay the blossoming of the cold pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 bow, can I have the link to the CFS1? Not that it matters, CFS1 says cold winter, CFS2 says mild. Nothing like covering their little computer *ss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 bow, can I have the link to the CFS1? Not that it matters, CFS1 says cold winter, CFS2 says mild. Nothing like covering their little computer *ss http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 CFS1 looks to be **** caned in a couple months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 If i was a betting man. Im going with a repeat of last winter. I have zero confidence in a cold and snowy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 What about a dry warm winter in which we have wild temp swings. 45-50 degrees by day and low teens by night. Like a desert winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 If i was a betting man. Im going with a repeat of last winter. I have zero confidence in a cold and snowy winter Ill go with something more severe than 2011-12 but less severe than 2010-11. Thats obviously going from one end of the spectrum to the other, so you can just call me the CFS . Seriously though, if I was a betting man, Id say no way do we repeat last winter. Even if its a crappy winter (think back to the mid-late 1990s) it will be better than 2011-12. Im talking more in terms of what I want to get out of winter, not total inches of snowfall. For instance, 2010-11 was better even than the 69 inches of snow would show because of the persistence of cold/snowcover, and 2011-12 was worse than the 26 inches of snow would show because of the lack of cold/snowcover. For example we could end up with 24 inches of snow, but if theres some sustained cold/snowcover, it will most definitely be better than 2011-12 in my book, despite coming up 2 inches short of 2011-12. Of course I shall bite my tongue for even suggesting a sub-30" winter. First guess, July 19, 2012...for the 2012-13 winter DTW will see a total of 44.8 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Winter looks warm. Check out environmental Canada. They nailed the last three seasons. Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 If your thinking of winter...Here's a winter outlook I just read http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Using 1997-1998 as an analog, the Super El Nino, not very wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Using 1997-1998 as an analog, the Super El Nino, not very wise. Same as 1972. I believe that was a moderate to strong el nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 The last good snowstorm I've seen was back in Feb 20th? Presidents day 2011. Unreal This swampy heat is my passion and I weenie for it. But a ripping blizzard is second for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The last good snowstorm I've seen was back in Feb 20th? Presidents day 2011. UnrealThis swampy heat is my passion and I weenie for it. But a ripping blizzard is second for me. The last good one for me was valentines day 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The last good snowstorm I've seen was back in Feb 20th? Presidents day 2011. Unreal This swampy heat is my passion and I weenie for it. But a ripping blizzard is second for me. You had one bad season. Not very unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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