Winter 2012-2013 General Discussion

[Chicago WX]

Same deal as above, but for Fort Wayne. 1981-10 normal snowfall of 33.5". Results similar as Indy. Bottom line, never root for a moderate or strong Nino if you live in Indiana. And like snow.

DJF ONI 1.5+

1982-83: 14.9"

1997-98: 13.9"

1972-73: 33.3"

1991-92: 27.8"

1957-58: 15.0"

2009-10: 29.3"

DJF ONI 1.0 to 1.4

1965-66: 14.1"

1986-87: 25.7"

1994-95: 13.5"

2002-03: 46.7"

1968-69: 12.6"

DJF ONI 0.5 to 0.9

1963-64: 46.9"

2006-07: 29.1"

1977-78: 60.6"

1987-88: 34.1"

2004-05: 44.7"

1976-77: 40.3"

1953-54: 27.8"

1969-70: 35.2"

1979-80: 28.7"

DJF ONI 0.0 to 0.4

1958-59: 24.1"

1990-91: 31.2"

2003-04: 36.4"

1951-52: 33.0"

1992-93: 41.9"

1952-53: 22.8"

1993-94: 42.5"

1989-90: 23.9"

1981-82: 81.2"

[Thundersnow12]

Skilling was hyping a much different and snowier winter than last on FB earlier today.

[Chicago WX]

And one more, this for Chicago. 1981-10 normal snowfall of 36.7". One caveat would be everything prior to 1980 was from MDW, the official site in those times. Where applicable, I'll put the ORD totals (started in 1958-59) in those winters alongside in ( ).

DJF ONI 1.5+

1982-83: 26.6"

1997-98: 29.6"

1972-73: 32.9" (25.6")

1991-92: 28.4"

1957-58: 20.0"

2009-10: 54.2"

DJF ONI 1.0 to 1.4

1965-66: 24.9" (28.9")

1986-87: 26.2"

1994-95: 24.1"

2002-03: 28.6"

1968-69: 29.4" (22.3")

DJF ONI 0.5 to 0.9

1963-64: 35.2" (36.2")

2006-07: 35.6"

1977-78: 82.3" (52.4")

1987-88: 42.6"

2004-05: 39.4"

1976-77: 54.1" (24.7")

1953-54: 43.2"

1969-70: 77.0" (56.1")

1979-80: 42.4"

DJF ONI 0.0 to 0.4

1958-59: 41.0" (32.4")

1990-91: 36.7"

2003-04: 24.8"

1951-52: 66.4"

1992-93: 46.9"

1952-53: 23.4"

1993-94: 41.8"

1989-90: 33.8"

1981-82: 59.3"

[Geos]

Here are Skilling's thoughts on this winter.

We appear to have a VERY DIFFERENT winter on the way compared to last. Last winter was exceptionally mild and snow-less. There were only 10 days with an inch or more of snow on the ground the entire snow season--- 43 days is normal. And th

e Dec-Feb winter period produced the 9th warmest temps of any winter in 142 years of records here averaging an impressive 6.4-deg above normal: 32.4-deg versus a normal of 26.4-deg. This winter may be far more conventional---and even possibly snowier than the long term average if our in-house statistical work pans our. NOAA has released its official winter outlook confirming the demise of the notion that an El Nino is a "shoe-in" this winter. It appears an El Nino--or certainly a strong El Nino--may not be in the cards. The El Nino evolution process has stalled if not reversed in the equatorial Pacific. Several of the most trustworthy coupled ocean/atmosphere seasonal computer forecast models, including NOAA's CFS model, have all but abandoned the notion of an El Nino--and they've certainly abandoned the notion of a "moderate" or "strong" El Nino, as we've reported here and on our blog in recent weeks. This effectively nixes the notion of an El Nino-driven milder than normal winter in terms of temperature here in Chicago and the Midwest. We've run local temp & snowfall stats for 21 ENSO neutral cold seasons since 1950---these so-call "neutral" seasons are the ones which occur between El Ninos and La Ninas--- to discern local trends in such periods. What comes of this is that slightly more than half of ENSO neutral winters--52% of them--end up colder than the long term average. But the snowy winter numbers are more impressive. 14 of the 21 snow seasons in ENSO neutral years have been snowier than the long term average--that's 67% of them. This suggests we could have a much different cold season on the way--in terms of both temp and snowfall---than last year. This may well end up a colder and snowier cold season than last. And that's not even taking into account the sudden appearance of high latitude "Greenland-type" blocking which has started showing up from time to time in recent months---another development that, were it to continue, would argue for a colder and potentially snowier winter. There's nothing carved in stone or certain about ANY seasonal outlook. There are many variables which impact seasonal weather which are NOT completely understood. So weigh my observations with that in mind. But history HAS been known to be a bell-weather of potential seasonal weather trends and this will be an interesting one to monitor. Here's a link to NOAA's winter outlook.

[Justin]

I'm thinking a winter that resembles 1989-1990 may be on the way. It followed a La Nina and was considered an enso neutral winter. There is some evidence in place to suggest 89-90 is a good guess, we'll see. I know it will not make some happy, me included.

[Jonger]

I'm thinking a winter that resembles 1989-1990 may be on the way. It followed a La Nina and was considered an enso neutral winter. There is some evidence in place to suggest 89-90 is a good guess, we'll see. I know it will not make some happy, me included.

Looks decent actually.

[wisconsinwx]

I'm thinking a winter that resembles 1989-1990 may be on the way. It followed a La Nina and was considered an enso neutral winter. There is some evidence in place to suggest 89-90 is a good guess, we'll see. I know it will not make some happy, me included.

Well, that was the winter that included an October snowstorm and a May snowstorm, but the actual winter period itself from Dec-Feb looked quite average in both temps and snowfall in my neck of the woods. Clearly, it would still be better than last winter for most, and probably much better the further north and east you go in our region.

[Jonger]

Well, that was the winter that included an October snowstorm and a May snowstorm, but the actual winter period itself from Dec-Feb looked quite average in both temps and snowfall in my neck of the woods. Clearly, it would still be better than last winter for most, and probably much better the further north and east you go in our region.

Give me 45-50 inches and solid snow cover 2/3rds of the winter IMBY.

Gaylord, MI 150 inches

Houghton, MI 250 Inches

I'll be happy. I don't think Gaylord cracked 90 inches last year.

[Hoosier]

1989 had the intense December cold spell IIRC.

[Jonger]

1989 had the intense December cold spell IIRC.

Funny you mention that. I was in 5th grade and I remember the forcast of -4F and school being closed. Schools rarely close for cold where I live now, everyone rides the bus.

[Chicago WX]

1989 had the intense December cold spell IIRC.

Indeed.

On the whole, some impressive monthly negative departures that month.

Indianapolis: -12.7º

Evansville: -12.6º

West Lafayette COOP: -12.4º

Fort Wayne: -12.1º

South Bend: -11.4º

Daily max/min temps at the WL COOP

12/15: 9º/-1º

12/16: 2º/-9º

12/17: 5º/-9º

12/18: 11º/-3º

12/19: 17º/-3º

12/20: 17º/-12º

12/21: 9º/-13º

12/22: -9º/-22º

12/23: -3º/-18º

12/24: 3º/-13º

12/25: 18º/-1º

[Hoosier]

Indeed.

On the whole, some impressive monthly negative departures that month.

Indianapolis: -12.7º

Evansville: -12.6º

West Lafayette COOP: -12.4º

Fort Wayne: -12.1º

South Bend: -11.4º

Daily max/min temps at the WL COOP

12/15: 9º/-1º

12/16: 2º/-9º

12/17: 5º/-9º

12/18: 11º/-3º

12/19: 17º/-3º

12/20: 17º/-12º

12/21: 9º/-13º

12/22: -9º/-22º

12/23: -3º/-18º

12/24: 3º/-13º

12/25: 18º/-1º

Takes some serious work to have highs close to 10 below zero here.

[Chicago WX]

1989-90 isn't a great ENSO match though.

1988-89 was a very strong Nina, unlike 2011-12. ONI tri-monthly numbers were cold neutral through NDJ, then slightly warm neutral thereafter. At the current time we're warm neutral...and may still get to a weak Nino, but that looks like a longer shot at the moment.

[Chicago WX]

Takes some serious work to have highs close to 10 below zero here.

In December to boot.

[Geos]

1989-90 was a low year for ORD, only 33.8". Anybody know what MKX got?

Here is the ONI values for those two years.

1989: Jan. -1.7, Feb. -1.5, Mar. -1.1, Apr. -0.8, May -0.6, Jun. -0.4, Jul. -0.3, Aug. -0.3, Sep. -0.3, Oct. -0.3, Nov. -0.2, Dec. -0.1

1990: Jan. 0.1, Feb. 0.2, Mar. 0.2, Apr. 0.2

Edit: Right now we are at +0.3

[Chicago WX]

1989-90 was a low year for ORD, only 33.8". Anybody know what MKX got?

67.7" at MKE. BowMe would be pleased.

Oct: 6.3"

Nov: 11.6"

Dec: 7.4"

Jan: 19.9"

Feb: 17.9"

Mar: 0.2"

Apr: 1.2"

May: 3.2"

[Chicago WX]

And 1989-90 was good for Michigan. And Toronto wasn't awful either...would seem like a ton of snow to Mike considering the run he's been on lately.

MQT: 235.4"

ANJ: 159.4"

MKG: 136.8"

APN: 115.9"

GRR: 89.8"

LAN: 56.4"

FNT: 55.4"

Toronto Dtwn: 49.8"

DTW: 41.8"

[cyclone77]

I'm thinking a winter that resembles 1989-1990 may be on the way. It followed a La Nina and was considered an enso neutral winter. There is some evidence in place to suggest 89-90 is a good guess, we'll see. I know it will not make some happy, me included.

IIRC we (the QC) had a pretty big snowstorm on Valentines day that season. 10+" IIRC.

[BowMeHunter]

67.7" at MKE. BowMe would be pleased.

Oct: 6.3"

Nov: 11.6"

Dec: 7.4"

Jan: 19.9"

Feb: 17.9"

Mar: 0.2"

Apr: 1.2"

May: 3.2"

fo sure...and sounds like a nice share the wealth winter...the best kind.

[Justin]

It matches somewhat, its not a perfect analog. Had coolish Fall weather, then a huge warm up which in turn was snapped by a strong storm with severe weather (IIRC there was some pretty nasty severe weather out East and a tornado outbreak in the mid South when the warmth snapped in November I think it was). Then the cold set in for a good month, month and a half. Then the rest of the Winter turned a bit mild but not so much so that the snow was done as a good part of the lakes region got very decent snow- it was just significantly less say along and South of I-80 or so.

And we are within the +/- 0.5 ONI values, so again not perfect but very close.

I foresee a fairly progressive pattern overall that will keep storm systems rolling across the country, and that Greenland block has shown up more this Fall so far than it did last Fall. I think thats a sign that we will see some healthy snow storms and shots of cold, just the cold won't last as long. The Fall around here overall has been much wetter than the Spring and Summer which I also think is a sign that the stormier pattern we've been in may very well continue into the cold season which bodes well for snow lovers too. I expect a lot of Texas panhandle lows and probably a couple good East Coast storms, with a few clippers and hybrid W-E clippers (lows that develop in SE Wyoming/NE Colorado and ride due East) sprinkled in.

I said a few months ago for everyone to just watch the Fall pattern evolve. We've had some decent shots of chilly air, warm-ups, good rains, beautiful days, etc... but the predominant thing is the pattern is wetter.

[IWXwx]

IWX posted some interesting stats concerning first snows at FWA:

Average 1st measurable snow: 11/14

Average 1st 1" snow: 12/2

Earliest measurable snow: 10/14/1937

Earliest 1" snow: 10/19/1974 & 1989

Latest measurable snow: 12/23/2001

Latest 1" snow: 12/27/1939

To lazy to check, but was wondering what the dates look like in other cities in our subforum.

[Chicago WX]

Chicago

Average first trace or more: October 30

Earliest first trace or more: September 25, 1942 and 1948

Latest first trace or more: December 5, 1999

Average 0.1" or more: November 16

Earliest 0.1" or more: October 12, 2006

Latest 0.1" or more: December 16, 1965

Average 1.0" or more: December 2

Earliest 1.0" or more: October 19, 1989

Latest 1.0" or more: January 17, 1899

Indianapolis

Average first measurable snow: November 19

Earliest first measurable snow: October 18, 1989

[IWXwx]

Thanks Tim. I knew you'd come through. It's interesting that Chicago and Fort Wayne's 1st 1" avg. is 12/2. I figured there would be a difference due to the lake.

I'm sure Josh has posted Detroit's somewhere and wondered if Mike knows Toronto's numbers. Also, how about you Iowa and WI guys?

[beavis1729]

Indeed.

On the whole, some impressive monthly negative departures that month.

Indianapolis: -12.7º

Evansville: -12.6º

West Lafayette COOP: -12.4º

Fort Wayne: -12.1º

South Bend: -11.4º

Daily max/min temps at the WL COOP

12/15: 9º/-1º

12/16: 2º/-9º

12/17: 5º/-9º

12/18: 11º/-3º

12/19: 17º/-3º

12/20: 17º/-12º

12/21: 9º/-13º

12/22: -9º/-22º

12/23: -3º/-18º

12/24: 3º/-13º

12/25: 18º/-1º

Interesting...the LAF temps were generally colder than ORD during this cold snap. More snow cover at LAF, perhaps? ORD only had 1-2" on the ground during the entire period.

Strangely enough, I remember this cold snap well. John Coleman from NBC Chicago had a 5-day forecast graphic before Christmas, calling for a high of -17 and a low of -30 on one day (probably for 12/21, 12/22, or 12/23). I was in high school at the time. I distinctly recall him saying this would be the coldest day in Chicago history by far...which of course would have been correct (coldest day is -11/-25 on 12/24/1983). I later discover that he often hyped extreme events...although, in this case, he probably expected to see a fresh snow cover that never materialized. Unfortunately, it got nowhere near that cold in Chicago. But John Coleman was great...and he ended up founding TWC.

Here are the daily max/min temps and snow cover from 12/12/1989 to 12/26/1989 at ORD. I often wonder how much colder it could have been had there been a good snow pack.

12/12: 17/5, T

12/13: 20/6, T

12/14: 18/-3, 1"

12/15: 16/-8, 1"

12/16: 9/-5, 1"

12/17: 16/3, 1"

12/18: 16/2, T

12/19: 15/1, 1"

12/20: 5/-6, 1"

12/21: 0/-14, 2"

12/22: 3/-12, 1"

12/23: 8/-11, 1"

12/24: 14/-6, 1"

12/25: 36/14, 1"

12/26: 18/5, 2"

[Chicago WX]

Interesting...the LAF temps were generally colder than ORD during this cold snap. More snow cover at LAF, perhaps? ORD only had 1-2" on the ground during the entire period.

Strangely enough, I remember this cold snap well. John Coleman from NBC Chicago had a 5-day forecast graphic before Christmas, calling for a high of -17 and a low of -30 on one day (probably for 12/21, 12/22, or 12/23). I was in high school at the time. I distinctly recall him saying this would be the coldest day in Chicago history by far...which of course would have been correct (coldest day is -11/-25 on 12/24/1983). I later discover that he often hyped extreme events...although, in this case, he probably expected to see a fresh snow cover that never materialized. Unfortunately, it got nowhere near that cold in Chicago. But John Coleman was great...and he ended up founding TWC.

Here are the daily max/min temps and snow cover from 12/12/1989 to 12/26/1989 at ORD. I often wonder how much colder it could have been had there been a good snow pack.

12/12: 17/5, T

12/13: 20/6, T

12/14: 18/-3, 1"

12/15: 16/-8, 1"

12/16: 9/-5, 1"

12/17: 16/3, 1"

12/18: 16/2, T

12/19: 15/1, 1"

12/20: 5/-6, 1"

12/21: 0/-14, 2"

12/22: 3/-12, 1"

12/23: 8/-11, 1"

12/24: 14/-6, 1"

12/25: 36/14, 1"

12/26: 18/5, 2"

Those temps are from the West Lafayette COOP, a more rural location...thus colder temps than say what LAF would have had (for which it has no data available for Dec 1989). Really, some of the temps recorded there in the past seem a bit too cold at times...but like I said, rural location. There was 3-4" of snow on the ground there for the duration of that cold snap.

And I remember John Coleman quite well. He visited/did a talk at my elementary school when I was in either 2nd or 3rd grade. Can't remember exactly, it was a long time ago.

[michsnowfreak]

Thanks Tim. I knew you'd come through. It's interesting that Chicago and Fort Wayne's 1st 1" avg. is 12/2. I figured there would be a difference due to the lake.

I'm sure Josh has posted Detroit's somewhere and wondered if Mike knows Toronto's numbers. Also, how about you Iowa and WI guys?

For Detroit...

Average first trace of snow: November 1st

Average first 0.1"+ of snow: November 17th

Average first 1.0"+ of snow: November 30th

Average first 3.0"+ of snow: December 26th

Earliest first trace of snow: October 1, 1974

Latest first trace of snow: December 18, 1998

Earliest first 0.1"+ of snow: October 12, 2006 (0.2")

Latest first 0.1"+ of snow: December 29, 1998 (0.1")

Earliest first 1.0"+ of snow: October 19, 1989 (2.7")*

Latest first 1.0"+ of snow: February 17, 1919 (1.8")

Earliest first 3.0"+ of snow: November 2, 1966 (4.7"...storm total 6.0" on 2/3)

Latest first 3.0"+ snow: There have been several years when no 3"+ calendar-day snowfall occurred

*A snowfall of 1.0" occurred on Oct 16-17, 1943, but it was split by the calendar days as 0.1 and 0.9*

[michsnowfreak]

Those temps are from the West Lafayette COOP, a more rural location...thus colder temps than say what LAF would have had (for which it has no data available for Dec 1989). Really, some of the temps recorded there in the past seem a bit too cold at times...but like I said, rural location. There was 3-4" of snow on the ground there for the duration of that cold snap.

And I remember John Coleman quite well. He visited/did a talk at my elementary school when I was in either 2nd or 3rd grade. Can't remember exactly, it was a long time ago.

At DTW...the Dec 1989 snowcover was:

Dec 1-2: 0

Dec 3: 1"

Dec 4-7: T

Dec 8-10: 0

Dec 11-13: T

Dec 14-15: 1"

Dec 16-19: 2"

Dec 20-24: 3"

Dec 25: 2"

Dec 26: 5"

Dec 27-28: 4"

Dec 29-31: 3"

Clearly the cold was a bigger story than snowdepth, just enough snow to probably look like a frozen tundra. January 1990 did a ridiculous about face to one of the mildest Januarys on record. Though a few better snowstorms came in Jan-Mar, it was quite mild.

[IWXwx]

Thanks Josh. 1998 and especially 1919

[michsnowfreak]

Thanks Josh. 1998 and especially 1919

1998 was depressing because of no snow for Christmas, although at least scattered snow showers fell the week up to Christmas (1 day I had 0.1 imby, but they were all traces at DTW). But then January came and we were buried in the deepest snow I had ever seen. 1918-19 was another story...that winter was absolutely horrific, and the total snowfall at Detroit was just 15.2" with 8" of that falling in March. It was a winter much suckier than 2011-12, and like 11-12, it was regionwide to nearly nation-wide

[Chicago WX]

Top 10 snowstorms for Chicago, officially, and the following winter season's snowfall. Except for two cases, 1970-71 and 1979-80, all had below normal snowfall. Kind of interesting. There are two storms on there from the winter of 1929-30, so it's doubled up. Make it 7 out of the 9 following winters had below normal snowfall. Bottom line, enjoy the big snowstorm in Chicago. Because the following winter may not be very good.

Jan 26-27, 1967: 23.0"

1967-68 season: 28.4"

Jan 1-3, 1999: 21.6"

1999-00 season: 30.3"

Jan 31-Feb 2, 2011: 21.2"

2011-12 season: 19.8"

Jan 12-14, 1979: 20.3"

1979-80 season: 42.4"

Mar 25-26, 1930: 19.2"

1930-31 season: 27.2"

Mar 7-8, 1931: 16.2"

1931-32 season: 24.6"

Jan 30, 1939: 14.9"

1939-40 season: 31.0"

Jan 6-7, 1918: 14.9"

1918-19 season: 28.7"

Dec 17-19, 1929: 14.8"

1930-31 season: 27.2"

Mar 25-26, 1970: 14.3"

1970-71 season: 37.9"