DAFF Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 ChicagoWX, thanks for all your effors they are truly over the top in qulaity and quanity. As for me a weather lover, non professional and still learning every day. These posts are truly great in all aspects. Mother nature is often a very good weather forecasting tool. With a very early onset to spring why not the same for fall and winter ?? Have been looking for catapillars expecially the brown and black ones, yet to find any!! Apples are small but super tasty. Evergreens are packed with cones and seeds too. As for winter, my gut is saying get the snow stuff ready ..... Many will be cought with there pants down !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Chicagowx, we've given each other all kinds of (mostly good-natured I hope) crap, but dude, you gotta be one of the most hard-core guys on here. You put this stuff up and it looks like it takes real effort. I like what you do. definitely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Thanks everyone. One more and I'll stop cluttering the thread...45"+ seasons for Detroit since 1949-50. Only interesting thing that sticks out to me is the bulk of Nino winters (and warm neutrals) that produced for Detroit were also associated with a positive PDO to some extent...save for 1951-52 and 1972-73. Nina's followed the same thing in reverse. Though in hindsight it shouldn't be completely surprising considering Nino's tend to favor +PDO/Nina's -PDO, though of course there are exceptions to that idea. Any NAO correlation is a complete crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Had to go back to 1988-89 before I could find a winter, that followed a presidential election, that featured less that 50" of snow at YYZ. 5/5 since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Had to go back to 1988-89 before I could find a winter, that followed a presidential election, that featured less that 50" of snow at YYZ. 5/5 since then. That winter was la Nina however. This year is neutral to weak niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 That winter was la Nina however. This year is neutral to weak niño What's your point? 1992 and 1996 were La Nada. 2000 was Nina. 2004 was Nino and 2008 was neutral or weak Nina. I think the fact that there's a presidential election is the more instructive climatic teleconnection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 What's your point? 1992 and 1996 were La Nada. 2000 was Nina. 2004 was Nino and 2008 was neutral or weak Nina. I think the fact that there's a presidential election is the more instructive climatic teleconnection. I can't find the "facepalm" emoticon. oops, found it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Skilling unleashing his weenie!! :wub: El Nino is faltering. This plus reappearance of high altitude blocking toward Greenland suggests the coming winter may be far harsher than last. Friday's sunshine belies the blustery wet storm & thundery weekend downpours which are on the way. This could be Chi's wettest weekend since last November! Wknd rain won't be continuous-but will come heavily in distinct waves. Computer rain projections avg well over 1"+; local 2"+ totals possible. Storm's track put Chicago in its gusty warm sector with temps surging well into the 60s later Sat & Sat night. Saturday's highest temps could come at night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Skilling unleashing his weenie!! :wub: was just going to post that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Skilling unleashing his weenie!! :wub: Lol, just noticed that a minute before I read your post! Sounds like a lot of people are up for a harsher winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I dont know either but what I do know is Skilling is not a sensationalist. After a lifetime of watching and listening to the man I find it particularly unusual for him to go and make a call like that without him being pretty confident its reasonable plausible thats how its going to play out. This is blind faith at this point but my money is always on Skilling. I agree he's not a sensationalist. From what I can tell he really thinks about the calls/ideas he says/posts. He doesn't jump right onto something, just because other people are all on the same bandwagon! I watch his forecast almost religiously every day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Agreed--after years of watching the man he rarely will make comments about long range models without being 100% certain. Keep in mind he was CONFIDENT in the Groundhog Day event a week in advance. It was just last week(with a three year old and a classroom of kids, it may have been longer than that)that he made a comment on Brandmeir on WGN radio that he wasn't fond of making or relying too heavily on long range models. I'm going to say that Skillful Skilling knows whats up...and I like what he's thinking!! I agree he's not a sensationalist. From what I can tell he really thinks about the calls/ideas he says/posts. He doesn't jump right onto something, just because other people are all on the same bandwagon! I watch his forecast almost religiously every day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Skilling unleashing his weenie!! :wub: Not to downplay his comments because I actually think winter will be pretty decent this year for the region, but even a normal winter will pale in comparison to last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Which winter outlook was correct last year? If they predicted last winter correctly maybe they will this year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Judah Cohen's Late Corrected Forecast worked out quite well, while at least 90% of all other outlets forecast failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Using the logic that someone was right one year so they will be right again is extremely flawed logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Using the logic that someone was right one year so they will be right again is extremely flawed logic. Yes, I should have said who has been correct the last 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Yes, I should have said who has been correct the last 5 years. No one is universally correct that much, pointless to mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 FWIW, 2nd snowday.us outlook http://snowday1.wordpress.com/2012/10/16/winter-forecast-2012-2013-second-update/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 The way they have the "Ohio Valley Low" tracking, SSC gets shut out again. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 I'll take some of those OV lows pushed west a few hundred miles. Praying for a couple repeats of Presidents' Day 2011 CAD systems.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 The low they have labeled as a Ohio Valley low, looks more like a Gulf low. That track doesn't even touch the OV! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Sucks to be sandwiched in the 100 mile wide zone of average precip. Oh well, better luck next year LAF peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Sucks to be sandwiched in the 100 mile wide zone of average precip. Oh well, better luck next year LAF peeps. And Marion peeps...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Season snowfall totals for Indianapolis, centered around the CPC DJF ONI values of 0.0 and warmer (1971-00 version). For reference, 1981-10 normal snowfall for Indianapolis is 25.9". Blue highlighted numbers below are "around normal" or above normal season totals. DJF ONI 1.5+ 1982-83: 7.1" 1997-98: 10.4" 1972-73: 7.9" 1991-92: 14.7" 1957-58: 9.3" 2009-10: 33.0" DJF ONI 1.0 to 1.4 1965-66: 12.5" 1986-87: 19.9" 1994-95: 19.8" 2002-03: 50.0" 1968-69: 18.7" DJF ONI 0.5 to 0.9 1963-64: 34.3" 2006-07: 25.8" 1977-78: 57.9" 1987-88: 11.3" 2004-05: 27.6" 1976-77: 30.0" 1953-54: 16.8" 1969-70: 38.2" 1979-80: 24.8" DJF ONI 0.0 to 0.4 1958-59: 22.3" 1990-91: 17.5" 2003-04: 20.9" 1951-52: 15.7" 1992-93: 28.5" 1952-53: 23.6" 1993-94: 31.5" 1989-90: 26.0" 1981-82: 58.2" Needless to say, mod to strong Nino winters are no good for Indianapolis. On the other hand, weak Nino's...or DJF ONI values between 0.5 and 0.9, are much preferred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Season snowfall totals for Indianapolis, centered around the CPC DJF ONI values of 0.0 and warmer (1971-00 version). For reference, 1981-10 normal snowfall for Indianapolis is 25.9". Blue highlighted numbers below are "around normal" or above normal season totals. DJF ONI 1.5+ 1982-83: 7.1" 1997-98: 10.4" 1972-73: 7.9" 1991-92: 14.7" 1957-58: 9.3" 2009-10: 33.0" DJF ONI 1.0 to 1.4 1965-66: 12.5" 1986-87: 19.9" 1994-95: 19.8" 2002-03: 50.0" 1968-69: 18.7" DJF ONI 0.5 to 0.9 1963-64: 34.3" 2006-07: 25.8" 1977-78: 57.9" 1987-88: 11.3" 2004-05: 27.6" 1976-77: 30.0" 1953-54: 16.8" 1969-70: 38.2" 1979-80: 24.8" DJF ONI 0.0 to 0.4 1958-59: 22.3" 1990-91: 17.5" 2003-04: 20.9" 1951-52: 15.7" 1992-93: 28.5" 1952-53: 23.6" 1993-94: 31.5" 1989-90: 26.0" 1981-82: 58.2" Needless to say, mod to strong Nino winters are no good for Indianapolis. On the other hand, weak Nino's...or DJF ONI values between 0.5 and 0.9, are much preferred. Only ones in play imo are DJF 0.0-0.4 and DJF 0.5-0.9 (remember it would be possible for the latter to happen and not officially be declared a Nino since you need 5 consecutive tri monthly periods). 11/18 winters in those categories had near or above average snow...not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Here's the temperature map to go along with the precip map that daddy posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Only ones in play imo are DJF 0.0-0.4 and DJF 0.5-0.9 (remember it would be possible for the latter to happen and not officially be declared a Nino since you need 5 consecutive tri monthly periods). 11/18 winters in those categories had near or above average snow...not bad. 1953-54 and 1979-80 were the two that peaked at 0.5 in DJF, but didn't have the "required" consecutive periods to be a Nino. But, yeah the odds are slanted towards a normal or above season in weak Nino/warm neutral winters...weak Nino being the preferred state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.