andyhb Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 The pattern that is "potentially" shaping up for the next couple weeks, if extrapolated to winter (which sometimes happens, sometimes doesn't) would make for the same kind of hyper active pattern we experienced back in 07-08 and to a decent extent in 10-11 as well. Let's watch how much we extrapolate at this juncture, and take things in stride as they come. That said, Pacific Jet certainly looks to ramp it up a notch from this weekend onward, if the GFS is to be taken somewhat seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 This pattern is just a pacific firehose,moist,warm pattern with little upstream blocking and a downstreak +PNA. We saw it last winter most of the time, especially in December with all the rain and warmth. The pattern in Sep/early October it what we want with the strong EPO ridging. It's disheartening to see the PAC jet acting up again. Not what most of us want to see. But with expectations already set very low it's should be easy to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 We haven't had normal November's in quite a while, pacific flow November's might be the new norm. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Better now than later I say.... We have a solid 50 days before december 1st to get rid of the pacific flow pattern. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 This pattern is just a pacific firehose,moist,warm pattern with little upstream blocking and a downstreak +PNA. We saw it last winter most of the time, especially in December with all the rain and warmth. The pattern in Sep/early October it what we want with the strong EPO ridging. If it's going to be dry I don't mind warmth, so I'm not exactly sure I want the pattern from September/early October if it's going to result in basically no rain for a two or three week period like we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Also, as bad as this pattern might be for us in winter, it would be even worse for the Northeast weenies, looks consistently warm and dry for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Also, as bad as this pattern might be for us in winter, it would be even worse for the Northeast weenies, looks consistently warm and dry for them. Lol. Well honestly warm and dry is allot better than 33 and cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Lol. Well honestly warm and dry is allot better than 33 and cold rain. In winter someone would get snow with these systems, it has to happen. The problem last winter is whenever we got decent cold air with a system, it would intensify out in the Rockies and Plains and crap out before it got to the Great Lakes. No guarantee that will happen again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Lol. Well honestly warm and dry is allot better than 33 and cold rain. May all your kayaking rivers and streams be dry come next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 May all your kayaking rivers and streams be dry come next season. :-( board bullies FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 May all your kayaking rivers and streams be dry come next season. Seriously, sometimes you have to risk a cold rain for a time in order to get the nice systems you want. It's not like every system will be the same 33 and rain. Also, the further NW you go in the Midwest, the better off you'll probably be in this type of pattern, so the W Great Lakes would have their fair share of snow potential, even if it is not a 12" blizzard. Might suck though for the OV and Eastern Great Lakes, hopefully it can share the wealth. I know I don't want a warm/dry winter to go with the hot/dry summer we just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 For real though..nothing more frustrating then dealing with boraderline and marginal temps during a system. I would rather worry about a classic SeMi dryslot slap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Seriously, sometimes you have to risk a cold rain for a time in order to get the nice systems you want. It's not like every system will be the same 33 and rain. Also, the further NW you go in the Midwest, the better off you'll probably be in this type of pattern, so the W Great Lakes would have their fair share of snow potential, even if it is not a 12" blizzard. Might suck though for the OV and Eastern Great Lakes, hopefully it can share the wealth. I know I don't want a warm/dry winter to go with the hot/dry summer we just had. If your referring to last winter there were many situations in which the entire region got screwed with marginal temps. The PAC airmass leaves no one out. It was horrendous for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 If your referring to last winter there were many situations in which the entire region got screwed with marginal temps. The PAC airmass leaves no one out. It was horrendous for all. Much of Northern Wisconsin got average, if not slightly above average snowfall. Rhinelander got several systems. Not sure if that counts as our region, but it shows there was enough cold air for some places. It was not the total abortion some made it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Much of Northern Wisconsin got average, if not slightly above average snowfall. Rhinelander got several systems. Not sure if that counts as our region, but it shows there was enough cold air for some places. It was not the total abortion some made it out to be. I totally see your point but I would say for 75% of us posters last winter was a complete disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 sure its frustrating but when you're as old as me and living along the lake....some border and marginal events are just part of almost every winter life so I've come to accept it much better than my younger days. No precip drives me more crazy and no precip means no chance of snow. I'd rather have a winter of living on the edge than remain in this stinking drought. Probably all gonna come down to timing this winter and you better make snow with a good majority of the precip you muster up this winter if you want any chance of hitting your avg snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I'd rather have a wet winter, even if it meant losing out to a cold rain during some events. At least there are systems to track in a wet pattern. We need an active polar jet and for the Gulf to be open for good snows this winter. Or if it's storms are coming off the Pacific - Blocking would be a big help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I totally see your point but I would say for 75% of us posters last winter was a complete disaster. I would agree, and even worse for the snowcover brigade, but that may be why I didn't view it to be as awful, I'm more about the big storms than the snowcover aspect. That being said, I really hope we have a better December than last year, I don't think it could get any worse than just over 1" and departures in the +6 to +7 range, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 sure its frustrating but when you're as old as me and living along the lake....some border and marginal events are just part of almost every winter life so I've come to accept it much better than my younger days. No precip drives me more crazy and no precip means no chance of snow. I'd rather have a winter of living on the edge than remain in this stinking drought. Probably all gonna come down to timing this winter and you better make snow with a good majority of the precip you muster up this winter if you want any chance of hitting your avg snowfall. This pretty much in a nutshell. More activity equals more chances you get lucky...especially if it's a warmer winter overall. But, the theme of this upcoming winter is still very much TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I know one of the big problem we were talking about last year was the lack of a Arctic/Polar connection and that was due to a lack of snow cover in southern Canada. The snow cover north of the border will be significant to track in the coming weeks. Edit: Well said BowMe. Nothing is set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 "the theme of this upcoming winter is still very much TBD." I like having that on all our sides yet.. I may be down on this winter but nobody right now can honestly say with much confidence how this winter is going to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Well the 2007-2008 rumor mill is a wet dream for almost all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 This pretty much in a nutshell. More activity equals more chances you get lucky...especially if it's a warmer winter overall. But, the theme of this upcoming winter is still very much TBD. Agree. I feel like there is even more uncertainty than usual with ENSO not looking to be a big driving factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Looking at a few indices during snowy winters, ENSO, PDO, and NAO (three month averages, NDJ, DJF, and JFM)...here's breakdown for Chicago and Milwaukee. Not that these are the be all end all climate indices for good snowy winters, but they're fairly easy to follow for most people I think. For Chicago, I went with all the seasons of 40.0"+...and for Milwaukee, 45.0"+. Only used the winters from 1949-50 to current. ENSO/ONI data from here: http://www.cpc.ncep....000_climo.shtml PDO date from here: http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest NAO data from here: http://www.cgd.ucar....tml#naostatseas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Great piece of work/research as always Chicago WX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Looking at a few indices during snowy winters, ENSO, PDO, and NAO (three month averages, NDJ, DJF, and JFM)...here's breakdown for Chicago and Milwaukee. Not that these are the be all end all climate indices for good snowy winters, but they're fairly easy to follow for most people I think. For Chicago, I went with all the seasons of 40.0"+...and for Milwaukee, 45.0"+. Only used the winters from 1949-50 to current. ENSO/ONI data from here: http://www.cpc.ncep....000_climo.shtml PDO date from here: http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest NAO data from here: http://www.cgd.ucar....tml#naostatseas One thing it shows is we are not heavily dependent on either PDO or NAO for a good winter, though it is better to be close to neutral rather than an extreme -NAO or +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Agree. I feel like there is even more uncertainty than usual with ENSO not looking to be a big driving factor. Agree, the problem is now everyone is latching onto every tiny little thing that could happen, when in reality we are still over 7 weeks from the start of meteorological winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Agree, the problem is now everyone is latching onto every tiny little thing that could happen, when in reality we are still over 7 weeks from the start of meteorological winter.. 53 days till meteorological winter. Should be plenty of time for a change.Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 30.0"+ seasons for Indianapolis. Looking at the NAO state only, negative or neutral seems to be the preferred phase...with a few exceptions. Thinking of the current ENSO situation, outside of 2002-03 and 2009-10, weaker Nino's tend to be better. On the flip side, sub 20.0" seasons for Indianapolis. Mod to strong Nino's...no good. Also a lot of positive NAO winters in this chart...glaring exceptions being 1965-66 and 1968-69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 30.0"+ seasons for Indianapolis. Looking at the NAO state only, negative or neutral seems to be the preferred phase...with a few exceptions. Thinking of the current ENSO situation, outside of 2002-03 and 2009-10, weaker Nino's tend to be better. On the flip side, sub 20.0" seasons for Indianapolis. Mod to strong Nino's...no good. Also a lot of positive NAO winters in this chart...glaring exceptions being 1965-66 and 1968-69. Chicagowx, we've given each other all kinds of (mostly good-natured I hope) crap, but dude, you gotta be one of the most hard-core guys on here. You put this stuff up and it looks like it takes real effort. I like what you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.