Winter 2012-2013 General Discussion

[trapperman]

Bowme, at least CFS pretty much got rid of the November torch... glass half full, buddy...

[wisconsinwx]

Bowme, at least CFS pretty much got rid of the November torch... glass half full, buddy...

Hard to even have the courage to take any of the long range models seriously. We've seen how even models less than a month in advance are totally wrong.

[trapperman]

Hard to even have the courage to take any of the long range models seriously. We've seen how even models less than a week in advance are totally wrong.

Fixed.

[michsnowfreak]

Far more "clunkers" throughout history than most weenies want to realize.

I'll do the same thing for Chicago, only using 25" and under to limit the size a bit...

WAY more clunkers in history than weenies realize!

Ill do the same for Detroit, using 29.9" and under. For the most part, a winter following a sub-30" winter is better snow-wise. For the past 50 years or so its been a next-to-guarentee.

1881-82: 13.2"

1882-83: 49.6"

1888-89: 23.2"

1889-90: 15.8"

1890-91: 27.0"

1891-92: 39.4"

1901-02: 26.2"

1902-03: 51.3"

1905-06: 29.4"

1906-07: 31.0"

1918-19: 15.2"

1919-20: 43.5"

1931-32: 26.2"

1932-33: 25.8"

1933-34: 42.6"

1936-37: 12.9"

1937-38: 22.6"

1938-39: 42.8"

1940-41: 26.8"

1941-42: 23.4"

1942-43: 44.4"

1943-44: 22.8"

1944-45: 25.8"

1945-46: 22.0"

1946-47: 30.0"

1947-48: 26.6"

1948-49: 13.7"

1949-50: 42.8"

1952-53: 16.6"

1953-54: 40.0"

1954-55: 27.3"

1955-56: 45.2"

1957-58: 18.0"

1958-59: 37.2"

1960-61: 18.0"

1961-62: 28.1"

1962-63: 29.7"

1963-64: 32.5"

1965-66: 15.4"

1966-67: 50.6"

1968-69: 17.1"

1969-70: 45.1"

1971-72: 29.0"

1972-73: 45.0"

1979-80: 26.9"

1980-81: 38.4"

1982-83: 20.0"

1983-84: 51.8"

1988-89: 25.1"

1989-90: 41.8"

1995-96: 27.6"

1996-97: 40.0"

1997-98: 23.4"

1998-99: 49.5"

1999-00: 23.7"

2000-01: 39.0"

2003-04: 24.1"

2004-05: 63.8"

2011-12: 26.0"

2012-13: ?

[DAFF]

I like the December snow totals for this seasons 2012-2013 comparables.

63-64

69-70

76-77

77-78

87-88

Almost all of these past winters were snowy.... Many had Decembers with 50cm+ for Toronto.

[jbcmh81]

Yes...for us north of I-80 mild winter can still be excellent for heavy snowfall. On the other hand, some cold winters can be horrendous snow seasons (may have a solid snowcover though).

Was talking with Harry on his board, and Euro monthlies updated again. VERY little above normal showing up for the whole country and the little bit it has is out west. Basically near to slightly below normal temps from November 1st till April 1st. Yes it now includes March. Coldest departures are along the northern border. 500mb maps show a nice ridge in the pacific up into AK especially in March.

Also a few older but very interesting tidbits I just learned....1880-81 was a weak El Nino! That is possibly the severest winter this region has ever seen. Very few stations had accurate data back then, but two that did (Detroit - 93.6" snow, Lansing - 97" snow) still have that winter stand as the snowiest on record. Also Laura Ingalls Wilders famous book "The Long Winter" describes how blizzards literally buried them in the Dakota prairie that winter.

1881-82 and 1889-90 were both La Nina winters, and were, in Detroit at least, much less wintry and FAR worse for snow-lovers than 2011-12, believe it or not.

1880-1881 was nice in Columbus as well.

December

Mean: 24.7

Snowfall: 17.2"

January

Mean: 24.2

Snowfall: 12.2"

February

Mean: 29.4

Snowfall: 8"

Total Snowfall October-April: 62.4"

1881-1882 and 1889-1890 were very warm winters.

[michsnowfreak]

1880-1881 was nice in Columbus as well.

December

Mean: 24.7

Snowfall: 17.2"

January

Mean: 24.2

Snowfall: 12.2"

February

Mean: 29.4

Snowfall: 8"

Total Snowfall October-April: 62.4"

1881-1882 and 1889-1890 were very warm winters.

Cool! I didnt know Columbus had snow records dating that far. How far back do they go? Detroit kept sporadic records in the 1870s but 1880-81 is the first one with no missing data.

Detroits monthly breakdown in 1880-81: (we had a below avg Dec actually)

Oct- 0.4"

Nov- 7.7"

Dec- 7.2"

Jan- 21.8"

Feb- 28.5"

Mar- 21.8"

Apr- 6.2"

Total- 93.6"

[jbcmh81]

Cool! I didnt know Columbus had snow records dating that far. How far back do they go? Detroit kept sporadic records in the 1870s but 1880-81 is the first one with no missing data.

Detroits monthly breakdown in 1880-81: (we had a below avg Dec actually)

Oct- 0.4"

Nov- 7.7"

Dec- 7.2"

Jan- 21.8"

Feb- 28.5"

Mar- 21.8"

Apr- 6.2"

Total- 93.6"

1878-79 is the earliest snowfall record I have.

[KokomoWX]

Accuweather says we are gonna need to suck it up for another below normal (snowfall) winter.

[WestMichigan]

Wow, AccuWeather is saying the I-95 corridor is in the above normal category. I am shocked.

[A-L-E-K]

still waiting for the epic snowy winter accu predicted last year.

FWIW WSW up for the northern plains.

[IWXwx]

Wow, AccuWeather is saying the I-95 corridor is in the above normal category. I am shocked.

Me too. Flabbergasted.

[Stebo]

Wow, AccuWeather is saying the I-95 corridor is in the above normal category. I am shocked.

In other late breaking news, the sun came up this morning

[Hoosier]

Wow, AccuWeather is saying the I-95 corridor is in the above normal category. I am shocked.

There might be 1 winter in the last 10 where they have put below average snow around I-95. Maybe. I know JB was anti-winter one year but his thoughts did not necessarily reflect Accuweather's official forecast.

[Geos]

In other late breaking news, the sun came up this morning

---

I think that above snowfall area is too far SE and S. I think the snowy 4 corners region makes sense though.

[Stebo]

---

I think that above snowfall area is too far SE and S. I think the snowy 4 corners region makes sense though.

Yeah I would by the orientation of their map, just move that Eastern snow zone NW about 200-400 miles and remove the far Southern end.

[BowMeHunter]

ORH_wxman on the Euro monthlies

"Euro didn't look bad to me. Good gradient pattern. Its not that cold...but then again neither was 2007-2008."

Yeah I'm a foot long

[mempho]

I have a suspicion some of us on this forum are going to see a light snowfall before Halloween and probably have at least a decent snow sometime in mid or late November...can't say it'll be 10"+ but a decent one I think.

With the weak Nino, some of the seasonal prog maps showing some ridging into Alaska, SE ridging, and episodes of blocking in the Atlantic I don't think this Winter is going to be Warm/Dry for a lot of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. I tend to believe most in this subforum will see overall Winter temps of -0.5 to +1.5 of normal, with snowfall at or generally above normal. Probably will see a mild temp anomaly over the Pacific NW/IntermountainW/and maybe the MidAtlantic/Florida. Above normal Precip from the Southern Rockies/Desert SW thru the Ohio Valley to the Northern MidAtlantic and Southern New England, and Florida also. This is what I'm thinking right now with everything thats out there and the indices that are showing their hand, also my gut scientific feeling as well.

I think you're probably right except I think the upper midwest will be much below normal if the drought doesn't improve. That should favor a predominance of cold, dry arctic high pressure up there. This should put the Lakes, OV in a dominant northerly flow and the dominant storm tracks should be on about a line from Texas to Maine....especially if ENSO gives some preference to the southern track. Sweet spots should vary by storm, but I think the Ohio Valley will get the bulk of the action, but there should be some good tracks that put both the Lakes and the TN Valleys in the sweet spots as well. We'll see how the drought plays out from here as the battle lines are still being drawn but I do not think I-95 is the clear winner this year.

[BowMeHunter]

More cherry picking off the New England forum.

Brett Anderson posted this over at Accuweather on the forum. He usually makes a graphic representation on his blog:

The new seasonal monthly update of the ECMWF has just arrived.....my first impressions strictly based on this model output only.....

1. A lot less stormy for Alaska this winter compared to last.

2. Lack of cold across a large part of the U.S. and southeast Canada.

3. More of a +NAO look

4. Storm track farther north into Great Lakes and Northeast U.S.

5. Cold shots mainly directed into Alberta and northern Quebec.

6. Still looks drier for most of BC, but room for some cold intrusions

7. Drier northern Ontario, central and northern Quebec.

8. ENSO fairly stable through winter with near-neutral to bordering weak el-nino, though the trend since the August forecast is lower, meaning farther away from el nino and toward neutral.

[Tropical]

More cherry picking off the New England forum.

Brett Anderson posted this over at Accuweather on the forum. He usually makes a graphic representation on his blog:

The new seasonal monthly update of the ECMWF has just arrived.....my first impressions strictly based on this model output only.....

1. A lot less stormy for Alaska this winter compared to last.

2. Lack of cold across a large part of the U.S. and southeast Canada.

3. More of a +NAO look

4. Storm track farther north into Great Lakes and Northeast U.S.

5. Cold shots mainly directed into Alberta and northern Quebec.

6. Still looks drier for most of BC, but room for some cold intrusions

7. Drier northern Ontario, central and northern Quebec.

8. ENSO fairly stable through winter with near-neutral to bordering weak el-nino, though the trend since the August forecast is lower, meaning farther away from el nino and toward neutral.

Sounds good!

[BowMeHunter]

Sounds good!

def.. I'll take my chances on this sort of pattern over a big -nao ao winter. hopefully you'll be digging out your mailboxes again like 2008-09

[BowMeHunter]

Going all HAM cherry picking post. only had 1.2" of snow in Dec, but had 66" for jan/feb.. 8" in nov....3.9 march....3.1 april.

weathafella said

1993-94 is not aunreasonable analog at this point. Weak ENSO near nada, big ak ridge to pole and positive NAO. At least in the progs it has some legs. Gradient pattern with 40N the difference between a cold icy winter vs a cold snowy one. At least it's a good analog in my weenie dreams...

[wisconsinwx]

Sounds good!

Nope, because based on the sound the storm track and snowstorm region will be a bit further south than last winter. In fact, Saukville might be the sweet spot even moreso than 07-08, it just won't be a brutally cold winter based on that interpretation. What does it matter anyways because no one knows what will happen.

Edit: I assume you have done a 180 and don't like snow anymore. If that's not the case, then that is a good scenario for you.

[wisconsinwx]

Going all HAM cherry picking post. only had 1.2" of snow in Dec, but had 66" for jan/feb.. 8" in nov....3.9 march....3.1 april.

weathafella said

1993-94 is not aunreasonable analog at this point. Weak ENSO near nada, big ak ridge to pole and positive NAO. At least in the progs it has some legs. Gradient pattern with 40N the difference between a cold icy winter vs a cold snowy one. At least it's a good analog in my weenie dreams...

My weenie dreams say the same thing, there are some similarities but I'm at the point where even looking at analogs seem pointless given the less than stellar results of long range forecasting recently.

[BowMeHunter]

My weenie dreams say the same thing, there are some similarities but I'm at the point where even looking at analogs seem pointless given the less than stellar results of long range forecasting recently.

Agree pretty much.. I'm just so effin' bored toady and with the wx so i'm just wienering out to some a little more encouraging possibilities this winter.

orhwxman

Yeah...if you look at the first 3 weeks of Dec 2007 when we had that very favorable pattern for SWFEs....it really doesn't look a heck of a lot different than the Euro. The anomaly south of Greenland is definitely more robust than the Euro prog, but it does have it there.

We had the Scandanavian block too.

[wisconsinwx]

Agree pretty much.. I'm just so effin' bored toady and with the wx so i'm just wienering out to some a little more encouraging possibilities this winter.

orhwxman

Yeah...if you look at the first 3 weeks of Dec 2007 when we had that very favorable pattern for SWFEs....it really doesn't look a heck of a lot different than the Euro. The anomaly south of Greenland is definitely more robust than the Euro prog, but it does have it there.

We had the Scandanavian block too.

I'm bored too, wish it was mid November. That's why I'm even paying attention to this speculation.

[Geos]

Found a really nice report on the winter of 2007-2008 put out by the Illinois State Water Survey: http://www.isws.illinois.edu/pubdoc/DCS/ISWSDCS2008-02.pdf

[Thundersnow12]

Found a really nice report on the winter of 2007-2008 put out by the Illinois State Water Survey: http://www.isws.illi...SDCS2008-02.pdf

probably my favorite winter

[Stebo]

probably my favorite winter

Agreed, so many amazing events that winter, severe weather to major snowstorms to major ice storms.

[wisconsinwx]

The pattern that is "potentially" shaping up for the next couple weeks, if extrapolated to winter (which sometimes happens, sometimes doesn't) would make for the same kind of hyper active pattern we experienced back in 07-08 and to a decent extent in 10-11 as well.