Winter 2012-2013 General Discussion

[Chicago WX]

Thanks much, Chi. Kinna what I figured it to look like. well off to see whats going down at the lake front. Y'all have a great Sunday evening.

Just noticed you added snowfall totals for areas. I think us to the north would sign up for that right now. did Laf at least get avg snowfall?

No problem my friend. And yeah LAF did alright, 30.5" for the season. November, December, and February produced well enough here. January was a clunker.

[Geos]

pretty much what i was thinking too. last thing i want is to much unfavorable blocking.. How much snow did you have in 1951/52? That winter has been mixed in a couple times with some analog talk in the SNE sub-forum but it sounds like it was not to good of a winter out there... was pretty darn good snow wise here..not sure about temps... about 38" of snow fell outside of D/J/F with 12.4" in November. We haven't had a 12"+ Nov. since 1995/96 so you could kinda say we're statistically (one every 17 yrs) due lol

Well for 1951-52 I have no idea about Waukegan. That was long before I was around! Chicago though had 66.4"! http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=chi_seasonal_snow

So that was definitely a good winter. Mt. Waukegan likely cashed in nicely that winter too. Yeah I remember that snowy November in 95-96. I remember a Clipper that tapped into lake moisture and dumped 10" here on the 15-16th - I believe.

... I guess it's about time for a snowy November! 04-05 I had 6.4" in November thanks to a small system on the 24th and one on the 30th.

[Snowstorms]

Or 2004-05. But those are exceptions. Nino's on average feature less snow than neutral ENSO, and even less than La Ninas. That's why I say odds are against us. But not impossible.

La Nina's are often better in terms of snowfall and cold temperature anomalies for most of the great lakes region but few are exceptions such as last year or 1999-00. Not all Nino's are terrible but there have been some pretty horrid ones like 1997-98, 06-07, 09-10 or 91-92. The more "improved" or "better" ones include 04-05, 02-03, 77-78, 76-77, 69-70, 65-66, or 63-64. Surely, based on history it has been known Nino's following a multi-year Nina event have been known for their extremes so lets wait and see.

Dont let the cold blast coming this week fool you for the upcoming winter cause we had something similar to this last year too lol.

[michsnowfreak]

La Nina's are often better in terms of snowfall and cold temperature anomalies for most of the great lakes region but few are exceptions such as last year or 1999-00. Not all Nino's are terrible but there have been some pretty horrid ones like 1997-98, 06-07, 09-10 or 91-92. The more "improved" or "better" ones include 04-05, 02-03, 77-78, 76-77, 69-70, 65-66, or 63-64. Surely, based on history it has been known Nino's following a multi-year Nina event have been known for their extremes so lets wait and see.

Dont let the cold blast coming this week fool you for the upcoming winter cause we had something similar to this last year too lol.

The 1990s thinking was always that La Nina meant cold, snowy winter and El Nino meant mild, dry winter, although looking at all the years...the data is really A LOT more mixed than some might think.

And of course, outside of the extremely good or bad winters that seem to just bless or screw almost everyone, often times a winter that is good for one area might be bad for a nearby area, and vice versa. Case in point, of the above years you listed, I wouldnt classify 2009-10 or 1991-92 as horrid winters. They had near normal snowfall and though they were overall milder than normal (esp 91-92) they were not without arctic blasts and good snowstorms (even 06-07 had intense Feb cold). On the flip side, 1965-66 was a snowfall DISASTER here, and 1963-64 was meh.

[wisconsinwx]

The 1990s thinking was always that La Nina meant cold, snowy winter and El Nino meant mild, dry winter, although looking at all the years...the data is really A LOT more mixed than some might think.

And of course, outside of the extremely good or bad winters that seem to just bless or screw almost everyone, often times a winter that is good for one area might be bad for a nearby area, and vice versa. Case in point, of the above years you listed, I wouldnt classify 2009-10 or 1991-92 as horrid winters. They had near normal snowfall and though they were overall milder than normal (esp 91-92) they were not without arctic blasts and good snowstorms (even 06-07 had intense Feb cold). On the flip side, 1965-66 was a snowfall DISASTER here, and 1963-64 was meh.

The bottom line is statistically, neutral or weak El Ninos are actually better than many La Nina ENSO situations. I just looked at the thread where Chi Wx posted snowfall for the last 50 or 60 years based on ENSO, and neutral winters on the whole were better snow wise than La Nina or El Nino winters (with La NIna coming in a close second). Also, most of our best El Nino winters were weak or relatively weak Ninos, so I'll take my chances with either Neutral or Weak El Nino and at least some blocking (hopefully favorable for cutters). Of course, with cold those winters may not be as kind necessarily.

[michsnowfreak]

The bottom line is statistically, neutral or weak El Ninos are actually better than many La Nina ENSO situations. I just looked at the thread where Chi Wx posted snowfall for the last 50 or 60 years based on ENSO, and neutral winters on the whole were better snow wise than La Nina or El Nino winters (with La NIna coming in a close second). Also, most of our best El Nino winters were weak or relatively weak Ninos, so I'll take my chances with either Neutral or Weak El Nino and at least some blocking (hopefully favorable for cutters). Of course, with cold those winters may not be as kind necessarily.

Absolutely!!!!

Oh and regarding 1951-52.....by December 31st, Detroit had already accumulated 32.3" of snowfall on the season (en route to 58.6"), which was more than the SEASON TOTAL in 9 out of the 10 winters of just-completed decade of the 1940s (a decade that reigns supreme for snowfall futility). The season started with quite a fierce snowstorm on Nov 6/7th (very blinding snow hit at rush hour, 5.6" of snow at Detroit before the snow changed to rain and left a 2-inch slushcover the next day...though many west and north of the city were buried in upwards of a foot of early season snow). December started with a very mild spell (including a max temp of 62F) before winter hit with a vengence the 2nd half of the month. Numerous 4-8" type snowstorms traversed the region. At Detroit it started with a 5.4" fall on the 14th before winters biggest storm of 6.8" fell on the 17/18th. Then on the 20/21st, a storm began with 4.4" of snow, which actually brought the depth of 16" (at the time the highest snow depth since 1905) before the snow changed to rain, dropping the depth down to 8" of slush which assumably froze the next day. Then on Christmas 6.2" snow fell as a storm belted the Chicago-Detroit corridor, and the depth was back up to 13", which is the deepest White Christmas on record for Detroit (beat out 12" in 1929). Very mild air New Years Eve plummeted the snowdepth down to just 1" on Jan 1st. Jan-Mar totaled 26.3" more snow but it came in the form of frequent falls, nothing heavy or noteworthy. It was such a shame that after finally getting a snowy winter, the entire region had to deal with 1952-53. Not familiar with 52-53? Think of a WORSE version of 2011-12!

[Geos]

For anyone wondering what the ONI values are - going back to 1950 - here they are: http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml

The 1951-52 El Niño was a bit stronger then we are now, but could be comparable to what might happen for this winter. I doubt will reach 1.1 - maybe more like 0.8. MJO seems to be in a favorable area for El Niño development currently.

[Minnesota Meso]

I have a question for anyone who wants to respond. I have been looking at the SST's in the Pacific, and I'm starting to see a warm tongue building from the west to east towards the western coast of the US. If this trend were to continue how would it effect the PDO in the next couple of months, could it flip back to negative? If the PDO were to stay positive how might it affect EPO?

This is the site I used to get this info.

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa...it_check=1#form

Thanks in advance for those that respond.

Edit: wait a minute, I was really tired when I posted this....we are negative already, my bad. Sorry

[Geos]

I have a question for anyone who wants to respond. I have been looking at the SST's in the Pacific, and I'm starting to see a warm tongue building from the west to east towards the western coast of the US. If this trend were to continue how would it effect the PDO in the next couple of months, could it flip back to negative? If the PDO were to stay positive how might it affect EPO?

This is the site I used to get this info.

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa...it_check=1#form

Thanks in advance for those that respond.

That warm water out in the Pacific Ocean is within the North Pacific Gyre. That water should stay out in the gyre and not reach the coast. The current moves clockwise and brings the cold water down from Alaska. Some of that warmer water near Japan could travel over, but I think due to the colder than normal Bearing Sea - it would be highly modified before it reached the PacNW.

... Not sure how it would affect the indices though.

[Entropy]

That warm water out in the Pacific Ocean is within the North Pacific Gyre. That water should stay out in the gyre and not reach the coast. The current moves clockwise and brings the cold water down from Alaska. Some of that warmer water near Japan could travel over, but I think due to the colder than normal Bearing Sea - it would be highly modified before it reached the PacNW.

... Not sure how it would affect the indices though.

The current configuration would actually constitute a more negative PDO index value. University of Washington had the PDO at -0.87 in June and -1.93 in August. The September value is not yet available, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's even lower. As you can see from the image below, the current configuration is pretty much the quintessential negative episode of the PDO (with the exception of the presence of a positive ENSO and a slightly greater expanse of cool anomalies in the Aleutians). As illustrated in the image, -PDO favors La Nina and +PDO favors El Nino, but there are many exceptions to that general rule.

As for the PDO this winter, the figures I've looked at showed a high correlation in sign (~0.85) between late summer PDO values and the mean wintertime PDO value. If September comes in significantly lower than -1 (as appears likely), I'd say the chance of a -PDO this winter is nearly 100%.

[Justin]

I have a suspicion some of us on this forum are going to see a light snowfall before Halloween and probably have at least a decent snow sometime in mid or late November...can't say it'll be 10"+ but a decent one I think.

With the weak Nino, some of the seasonal prog maps showing some ridging into Alaska, SE ridging, and episodes of blocking in the Atlantic I don't think this Winter is going to be Warm/Dry for a lot of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. I tend to believe most in this subforum will see overall Winter temps of -0.5 to +1.5 of normal, with snowfall at or generally above normal. Probably will see a mild temp anomaly over the Pacific NW/IntermountainW/and maybe the MidAtlantic/Florida. Above normal Precip from the Southern Rockies/Desert SW thru the Ohio Valley to the Northern MidAtlantic and Southern New England, and Florida also. This is what I'm thinking right now with everything thats out there and the indices that are showing their hand, also my gut scientific feeling as well.

[A-L-E-K]

It feels like we're overdue for a white turkey day but i have nothing to back that up

[michsnowfreak]

I have a suspicion some of us on this forum are going to see a light snowfall before Halloween and probably have at least a decent snow sometime in mid or late November...can't say it'll be 10"+ but a decent one I think.

With the weak Nino, some of the seasonal prog maps showing some ridging into Alaska, SE ridging, and episodes of blocking in the Atlantic I don't think this Winter is going to be Warm/Dry for a lot of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. I tend to believe most in this subforum will see overall Winter temps of -0.5 to +1.5 of normal, with snowfall at or generally above normal. Probably will see a mild temp anomaly over the Pacific NW/IntermountainW/and maybe the MidAtlantic/Florida. Above normal Precip from the Southern Rockies/Desert SW thru the Ohio Valley to the Northern MidAtlantic and Southern New England, and Florida also. This is what I'm thinking right now with everything thats out there and the indices that are showing their hand, also my gut scientific feeling as well.

Sounds good!

[Jonger]

It feels like we're overdue for a white turkey day but i have nothing to back that up

2004 and 2005 were pretty good here. I remember bar hopping on the night before thanksgiving 2004 and it was dumping... Got 6 inches.. 2005 was really cold and blustery.

Jon

[Stebo]

2004 and 2005 were pretty good here. I remember bar hopping on the night before thanksgiving 2004 and it was dumping... Got 6 inches.. 2005 was really cold and blustery.

Jon

2004 thanksgiving eve, first time I ever drove in snow. Drove from Mount Pleasant to Eastpointe to Harsens Island. Took 6 hours. Oh and most of the US127 corridor received 5-9" of snow. Quite the white knuckle drive home to say the least...

[hm8]

New DJF outlook from CPC....

[Tropical]

New DJF outlook from CPC....

Love it. Warm and dry looks likely. Hoping that comes true!

[WxMidwest]

Ass Nugget of a forecast..

[CoastalWx]

That outlook looks weird. How do you have dry anomalies in the NW with normal temps?

[BowMeHunter]

Just about ready to lock in most stations below avg snowfall and above average temps for this winter. should be a lock for another top 3 finish in the snowfall contest.

[Chicago WX]

Just about ready to lock in most stations below avg snowfall and above average temps for this winter. should be a lock for another top 3 finish in the snowfall contest.

Not sure if this will do more harm than good. But seasons following a sub 30" season for Milwaukee...

1888-89: 28.9"

1889-90: 39.8"

1901-02: 24.6"

1902-03: 40.5"

1906-07: 28.1"

1907-08: 67.6"

1910-11: 25.2"

1911-12: 58.7"

1912-13: 25.1"

1913-14: 24.9"

1914-15: 33.8"

1921-22: 14.4"

1922-23: 80.8"

1927-28: 27.5"

1928-29: 42.7"

1933-34: 29.1"

1934-35: 48.1"

1936-37: 20.2"

1937-38: 21.3"

1938-39: 37.3"

1943-44: 21.0"

1944-45: 26.4"

1945-46: 30.1"

1952-53: 25.0"

1953-54: 17.8"

1954-55: 39.1"

1962-63: 29.1"

1963-64: 42.1"

1967-68: 12.1"

1968-69: 29.9"

1969-70: 39.5"

1986-87: 21.9"

1987-88: 54.7"

2011-12: 29.6"

2012-13: ?

[A-L-E-K]

Lotta clunkers in there but no real pattern, 1912-1915 ftl

[wisconsinwx]

Just about ready to lock in most stations below avg snowfall and above average temps for this winter. should be a lock for another top 3 finish in the snowfall contest.

Going with a strong Nino?

[Brewers]

Jeez the winter of 67-68 must of been horrible

[Geos]

Quite a jump from 1921-22 to 1922-23! No way will this El Niño be moderate or strong. - It is struggling as it is.

[Chicago WX]

Lotta clunkers in there but no real pattern, 1912-1915 ftl

Far more "clunkers" throughout history than most weenies want to realize.

I'll do the same thing for Chicago, only using 25" and under to limit the size a bit...

1888-89: 22.7"

1889-90: 21.7"

1890-91: 21.6"

1891-92: 33.5"

1898-99: 18.0"

1899-00: 36.8"

1901-02: 18.2"

1902-03: 34.2"

1905-06: 20.6"

1906-07: 29.3"

1912-13: 19.1"

1913-14: 28.2"

1914-15: 19.0"

1915-16: 26.1"

1916-17: 23.7"

1917-18: 64.1"

1920-21: 9.8"

1921-22: 11.5"

1922-23: 21.5"

1923-24: 27.6"

1924-25: 18.9"

1925-26: 52.3"

1926-27: 23.8"

1927-28: 32.9"

1931-32: 24.6"

1932-33: 28.1"

1936-37: 12.0"

1937-38: 34.2"

1943-44: 23.0"

1944-45: 34.9"

1945-46: 23.9"

1946-47: 34.1"

1948-49: 14.3"

1949-50: 33.8"

1952-53: 23.4"

1953-54: 43.2"

1957-58: 20.0"

1958-59: 41.0"

1965-66: 24.9"

1966-67: 68.4"

1988-89: 24.5"

1989-90: 33.8"

1994-95: 24.1"

1995-96: 23.9"

1996-97: 40.6"

2003-04: 24.8"

2004-05: 39.4"

2011-12: 19.8"

2012-13: ?

[wisconsinwx]

No Nino may be worse than a stronger Nino. Neutral years following La Nina patterns have a tendency to blow with the sun max blowing off with the depressed STJ.

Funny that you should say that given Neutral winters are our best climatologically speaking, hard to imagine given any other circumstances there would be a better than 50/50 likelihood one would be worse than a strong Nino.

Haven't delved into looking at that scenario here (neutral winters following a Nina).

[Chicago WX]

Funny that you should say that given Neutral winters are our best climatologically speaking, hard to imagine given any other circumstances there would be a better than 50/50 likelihood one would be worse than a strong Nino.

Haven't delved into looking at that scenario here (neutral winters following a Nina).

Angrysummons loves 2001-02.

Since 1949-50, Nina's to either Nino's or Neutral winters for Milwaukee (season snowfall). Small sample size, so I wouldn't glean much from it.

1950-51 (Nina): 79.3"

1951-52 (Nino): 90.8"

1955-56 (Nina): 33.7"

1956-57 (Neutral): 34.4"

1964-65 (Nina): 74.0"

1965-66 (Nino): 51.0"

1971-72 (Nina): 41.9"

1972-73 (Nino): 44.8"

1975-76 (Nina): 45.2"

1976-77 (Nino): 48.6"

1984-85 (Nina): 66.6"

1985-86 (Neutral): 42.4"

1988-89 (Nina): 39.9"

1989-90 (Neutral): 67.7"

2000-01 (Nina): 59.3"

2001-02 (Neutral): 36.5"

2005-06 (Nina): 37.9"

2006-07 (Nino): 58.1"

2007-08 (Nina): 99.1"

2008-09 (Neutral): 76.0"

[BowMeHunter]

might have to put chitcago above normal after seeing the numbers and they avg like 26" a yr..

[BowMeHunter]

No Nino may be worse than a stronger Nino. Neutral years following La Nina patterns have a tendency to blow with the sun max blowing off with the depressed STJ.

fear this. palms will need no boxing.