Powerball Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Leave any posts you want about next winter in THIS thread, and not litter the heatwave/summer threads with them. And if there's already a discussion thread for next winter in this sub-forum, please merge this one with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Realistically, I could see anything from neutral conditions to moderate El Nino. I guess Nina (weak) can't totally be written off but it seems like an exceedingly low chance given where we're at and what the models are showing. Of course you can only glean so much from ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Realistically, I could see anything from neutral conditions to moderate El Nino. I guess Nina (weak) can't totally be written off but it seems like an exceedingly low chance given where we're at and what the models are showing. Of course you can only glean so much from ENSO. I have no idea what the enso state will be, but I am about 98% certain i will enjoy winter of 2012-13 more than 2011-12. When you look at past years that saw such a widespread craptastic winter (remember as bad as it was, our region was one of the luckier ones), the following winter is almost always better. Not that we havent had back-to-back sucky winters, it has happened many times (more often than not from the 1930s clear to the 1960s), but I cant imagine this coming winter being as bad, especially from a snowcover perspective. Now, what will be interesting......is lets say we get a pretty average winter for snowfall/snowcover. Will it seem awesome after last winter, or will it still seem meh since we had a 4-year snowpocalypse prior to last winter? When 2011-12 ended, I thought wow....what on earth will we do when we simply get a "normal" winter...but after getting slapped with just one sucky winter, Im already thinking I would be plenty pleased to simply see normal. However, the near nationwide snowdrought of 2011-12 is screaming for a snowy surplus in 2012-13 (as that happens more often than not in these situations). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I have no idea what the enso state will be, but I am about 98% certain i will enjoy winter of 2012-13 more than 2011-12... This. No winter will ever top the last one for futility. Largest single snow event here was a little over 4" lol. I can never remember going a whole winter without getting at least one 6"+ snow event till last winter. It would have been one thing if it were just this area, but the whole region was very quiet, which meant little to no tracking of at least a decent event for someone else. 2012-2013 will be an improvement, there's no doubt about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 This. No winter will ever top the last one for futility. Largest single snow event here was a little over 4" lol. I can never remember going a whole winter without getting at least one 6"+ snow event till last winter. It would have been one thing if it were just this area, but the whole region was very quiet, which meant little to no tracking of at least a decent event for someone else. 2012-2013 will be an improvement, there's no doubt about it. No individual futility records were set at Detroit.... ~In 142 years of temp records, there were 5 warmer winters ~In 132 years of snow records, there were 22 winters with less snowfall ~In 132 years of snow records, there were 10 winters (I believe) with less snowcover ~In 132 years of snow records, there were 29 winters with a smaller biggest snowfall of the season But with that said, when you ball everything together, not to mention the past history of what happens during the winter following such a widespread crappy winter, theres no doubt 2012-13 will be an improvement. How much of one, no one knows...but almost no doubt it will be better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think we've past the tipping point...i'll call for another warm winter...especially around the lakes where water temps are going to out of this world warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think we've past the tipping point...i'll call for another warm winter...especially around the lakes where water temps are going to out of this world warm. 2002-2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It will be interesting to see if the lakes are way warmer than usual if it will have greater affect on lake effect snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I think we've past the tipping point...i'll call for another warm winter...especially around the lakes where water temps are going to out of this world warm. You may very well be right about another mild winter, back to back mild winters have happened dozens of times in the past, but it will still be better than 2011-12. BTW, water temps can cool down very fast much like they warm up very fast...so that is a very premature assumption to say water temps will be out of this world warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 2002-2003. Look at 1995-96. A torrid summer followed by a frigid winter. I cringe when I think of this winter for storm track/snow reasons...but its the perfect example that hot summer doesnt mean warm winter. In fact many places went from near-record warmth in August to near-record cold in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 You may very well be right about another mild winter, back to back mild winters have happened dozens of times in the past, but it will still be better than 2011-12. BTW, water temps can cool down very fast much like they warm up very fast...so that is a very premature assumption to say water temps will be out of this world warm. Those powerful fall storms acts to churn up the waters and mix up the deeper cooler waters to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Warm winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Warm winter! Good.. cold nino would suck for precip probably. 14.9" of snow in nov 95/96. Feb and march only had 3.5" total. 51.5" for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 We've had some very productive winters around here the last 5-6 yrs with the exception of last winter. Wouldn't surprise me to see another below average season, but I'd be extremely surprised if we top the futility factor of last season. It's been a strange last 18 months though so I guess you never know. (this post will probably get bumped sometime next Feb lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 We've had some very productive winters around here the last 5-6 yrs with the exception of last winter. Wouldn't surprise me to see another below average season, but I'd be extremely surprised if we top the futility factor of last season. It's been a strange last 18 months though so I guess you never know. (this post will probably get bumped sometime next Feb lol) I'm fully on the warm bandwagon...that said strange and anomalous weather loaded with extremes seems to be the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I'm fully on the warm bandwagon...that said strange and anomalous weather loaded with extremes seems to be the new normal. lol, I thought you didn't do long range forecasting? Anyways, for those that may be thinking hot summers=warm winters for Chicago...well there is no direct correlation. Top 10 warmest summers on record below and the following winter average temperature/season snowfall. 1955 JJA: 76.4 DJF: 27.9 Season snowfall: 26.3" 1995 JJA: 76.3 DJF: 25.2 Season snowfall: 23.9" 1921 JJA: 75.9 DJF: 28.9 Season snowfall: 11.5" 1959 JJA: 75.5 DJF: 29.9 Season snowfall: 50.9" 1949 JJA: 75.5 DJF: 29.2 Season snowfall: 33.8" 1973 JJA: 75.3 DJF: 26.5 Season snowfall: 58.3" 1953 JJA: 75.3 DJF: 32.3 Season snowfall: 43.2" 2010 JJA: 75.2 DJF: 23.1 Season snowfall: 57.9" 1954 JJA: 75.2 DJF: 28.5 Season snowfall: 32.2" 1988 JJA: 75.1 DJF: 26.6 Season snowfall: 24.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 lol, I thought you didn't do long range forecasting? Anyways, for those that may be thinking hot summers=warm winters for Chicago...well there is no direct correlation. Top 10 warmest summers on record below and the following winter average temperature/season snowfall. yeah, it's not really my thing and this isn't the right subforum for it, I just think we're past the tipping point and well on our way to a warmer climate in general....obviously it will still be winter and monster storm potential will be as high as ever...just warmer overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 yeah, it's not really my thing and this isn't the right subforum for it, I just think we're past the tipping point and well on our way to a warmer climate in general....obviously it will still be winter and monster storm potential will be as high as ever...just warmer overall. Ah I see. Well I'm not going to touch that one. As you said, "better" places for those discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Ah I see. Well I'm not going to touch that one. As you said, "better" places for those discussions. I personally think the heatwaves of the last 2 summers have been LONG overdue here (though certainly not welcome). The 2000s had been a pathetic decade for heat, so its unfortunately time. I also know that we are due for an evening out of our snowy 2000s, so I cant really issue a forecast either. But its far from bold to say 2012-13 will be an improvement over 2011-12 . Hell, you can match 2011-12s 26" of snowfall but if you double the snowcover I will consider it a win and big improvement lol! What I want and whats merely an improvement are 2 different things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 You may very well be right about another mild winter, back to back mild winters have happened dozens of times in the past, but it will still be better than 2011-12. BTW, water temps can cool down very fast much like they warm up very fast...so that is a very premature assumption to say water temps will be out of this world warm. I agree with you. There is no way next winter will be as bad as last winter. It might be milder than normal but still colder than last year. I also believe that storms will be more numerous as well. Hell, I will even take an above average storm in a below average snow season just for some excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I think winter will probably surprise us and be exceedingly average........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 For the fun of it... as we talk about next winter, Anchorage still has remnants of last winter still visible! Check this out > http://www.ktuu.com/videogallery/70884255/Environment/Snow-Piles-Tower-Over-Anchorage-in-July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 For the fun of it... as we talk about next winter, Anchorage still has remnants of last winter still visible! Check this out > http://www.ktuu.com/...chorage-in-July Haha that was pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 lol, I thought you didn't do long range forecasting? Anyways, for those that may be thinking hot summers=warm winters for Chicago...well there is no direct correlation. Top 10 warmest summers on record below and the following winter average temperature/season snowfall. Thanks for pulling these Mr. stats man, always appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I think winter will probably surprise us and be exceedingly average........ Which will honestly feel great after last winter and what looks to happen this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Which will honestly feel great after last winter and what looks to happen this summer. Take the winter off and save yourself from b2b miserable winters in MKE.. I'll be your tour guide for an epic 2 month mall map collecting and snow chase starting after the new yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 For the fun of it... as we talk about next winter, Anchorage still has remnants of last winter still visible! Check this out > http://www.ktuu.com/...chorage-in-July Wow, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Take the winter off and save yourself from b2b miserable winters in MKE.. I'll be your tour guide for an epic 2 month mall map collecting and snow chase starting after the new yr. You never fail to amuse, that's for sure. Seriously, though, I'm thinking if there is a candidate for back to back miserable winters, this would be it, considering a moderate Nino is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 You never fail to amuse, that's for sure. Seriously, though, I'm thinking if there is a candidate for back to back miserable winters, this would be it, considering a moderate Nino is likely. Our luck would be a 1993-94 nino. We stick around for the Holidays and get a whopping 1.2" of snow in Dec. Then we leave for 2 months and Jan snows 27" and Feb 38.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 For the fun of it... as we talk about next winter, Anchorage still has remnants of last winter still visible! Check this out > http://www.ktuu.com/...chorage-in-July Why anyone would want to live there is beyond me. Looks awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.