Kmlwx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Well maybe something exciting will happen for Friday The thing we all have to remember is that it only takes one big storm moving through a fairly densely populated area to make a big impression. Remember the morning storm a few years back that scraped right through DC Metro/MoCo and knocked out power for a few days to many. IIRC that was pretty isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The thing we all have to remember is that it only takes one big storm moving through a fairly densely populated area to make a big impression. Remember the morning storm a few years back that scraped right through DC Metro/MoCo and knocked out power for a few days to many. IIRC that was pretty isolated. No, I don't remember that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Well maybe something exciting will happen for Friday newer SREF latching onto the morning idea for friday.. having an mcs type deal modeled just north is probably ok for now. it actually gets n md pretty good on the sref it looks. models seem to sorta like late sat now too. surface still pretty unimpressive all around but there is consistent signal of at least small vorts riding through the flow. it's about as solid a nw flow pattern for us as i've seen as long as we have some forcing and can break the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 woo -- has some morning activity too then another complex over va on sat p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 GFS looks active in the broader area thru the weekend. Perhaps still suspect in details but good to see some real qpf showing up on the models. I do wonder if we'll be able to reach max potential heat if we have little disturbances running by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Bring on the disturbances! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Did Ian stop caring about our storm chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Did Ian stop caring about our storm chances SPC sure thinks it's 'meh' for us. No risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Tomorrow looks iffy. Morning stuff might clip some of us. There isn't any good lift mechanism late despite good flow. Maybe Sat.. Tho this pattern can surprise shorter term I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Tomorrow looks iffy. Morning stuff might clip some of us. There isn't any good lift mechanism late despite good flow. Maybe Sat.. Tho this pattern can surprise shorter term I suppose. Summer Alberta clipper pattern. I think it is just hard to pinpoint exactly where these things will eventually track. Edit: kinda stating the obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 fire on a hill in the Shenandoah Valley I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 18z NAM has basically nothing for anyone tomorrow. SREF likes Saturday. I'm skeptical at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 18z NAM goes to town on Saturday to our north. That'd be a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I don't recall - do these things have a tendency to go north or south of progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 I don't recall - do these things have a tendency to go north or south of progged? an mcs/psuedo derecho should tend to end up a bit south once going but who knows on where the path would be at this range i guess. it'd probably be a little better to have 500 heights a little lower here. but i don't think we'll know much till it fires up honestly. the pattern's there (if better north perhaps).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Boo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 an mcs/psuedo derecho should tend to end up a bit south once going but who knows on where the path would be at this range i guess. it'd probably be a little better to have 500 heights a little lower here. but i don't think we'll know much till it fires up honestly. the pattern's there (if better north perhaps).. The HPC seems to be more encouraged by our chances than they were. Hoping for rain, but realizing it can be very hit and miss this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 fire on a hill in the Shenandoah Valley I see How will this affect QBO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 fire on a hill in the Shenandoah Valley I see Welcome to yesterdays news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 0z nam tries to fire some stuff near blue ridge tomorrow for a bit and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 for yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 1 day time sensitive image.. 0z WRF-NMM 4KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 I have no faith we will see anything tomorrow but if something fires it could be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 oops.. = Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia 1052 PM EDT Thursday Jun 28 2012 Synopsis... high pressure will build over the region tonight and Friday. A frontal boundary will stall near the area into the weekend...lingering into early next week. && Near term /through Friday/... short term models have been trying to develop an area of cnvctn over eastern Michigan which would eventually drop into central PA. This doesn't appear to be happening. We still have some low chance probability of precipitation acorss the north..but these have been pared back..and am suspicious that middle Atlantic will xprnc any thunderstorms overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Sweet storm this morning in Cockeysville, woke me up just before 5 then jumped outta bed as it was hailing. Got pea sized hail here, and made my first weather spotter report! Storm broke off to two cells, so getting another small storm now, lots of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 El Radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 So close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Glad I missed it. Don't need the added moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Glad I missed it. Don't need the added moisture. Funny, we're approaching Sahara conditions here. I would have begged for that rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 510 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0506 AM HAIL 2 E COCKEYSVILLE 39.48N 76.60W 06/29/2012 E0.75 INCH BALTIMORE MD TRAINED SPOTTER PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL Go me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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