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Late June 2012 storms


Ian

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is impressive on the outages tho to be expected putting a heavy wind burst through population. a lot of these problems are that our infrastructure sucks.

Totally agreed

I can only imagine what would happen if this particular storm went through were I'm currently at. Power lines above ground everywhere here, lines that weave through trees, bad wiring planning (for example: one step-down transformer gives power to my apartment complex/subdivision which has around 60-70 tenants/homes).

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GFS continues to look interesting Friday with plenty of CAPE and a solid jet.. and really for a few days beyond. The Euro gives us almost no precip through the run. I guess I'll go with the GFS being on a hot streak for now.

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GFS continues to look interesting Friday with plenty of CAPE and a solid jet.. and really for a few days beyond. The Euro gives us almost no precip through the run. I guess I'll go with the GFS being on a hot streak for now.

That does look pretty juicy. CAPE certainly believable with that heat. Soupy airmass.

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GFS continues to look interesting Friday with plenty of CAPE and a solid jet.. and really for a few days beyond. The Euro gives us almost no precip through the run. I guess I'll go with the GFS being on a hot streak for now.

This morning's NAM has something. Takes us to 100 by early afternoon, then sends a complex through.

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This morning's NAM has something. Takes us to 100 by early afternoon, then sends a complex through.

doesnt look too exciting at the surface but 500mb is decent. probably going to take till 24 hours out to know where it tracks if it happens.

AKQ posted this on yesterday to FB:

Monday’s severe storms were some of the worst to hit VA in many years in terms of magnitude (60-80 mph wind) and overall path from Louisa to Richmond and Hampton Roads. The Tornado Watch was issued just before 1pm Monday afternoon. The firs...t report of severe weather across central VA came in around 230 pm.

Here are some numbers regarding what the NWS office provided:

12 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (avg lead time of 28 minutes)

16 Marine Warnings (avg lead time of 41 minutes)

31 Severe Weather Statements updating warnings

60 Local Storm Reports of damage, hail and wind reports.

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SREF has been suggestive of a complex either skirting us (DC) mainly through PA into northern MD or of something dropping into at least the northern half of the entire area from the northwest late Friday. 15z is particularly intriguing.. new one still running.

Could be a waste of a few days since these types of events are often very tricky to nail down where they target till they get going. If 0z models keep at it or the Euro actually shows any precip through day 10 might become interesting.

post-1615-0-35035000-1340762729_thumb.gi

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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0227 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS/MID-ATLANTIC...

A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY FROM THE

UPPER MIDWEST ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NERN

STATES. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE

IN PLACE FROM NEAR CHICAGO EWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH DEWPOINTS

SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 F. THE MOIST

BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION

ACROSS A BROAD CORRIDOR BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE

CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE

BOUNDARY AT 00Z/SAT IN THE OH VALLEY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000

J/KG WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL

BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS

UNCERTAIN DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP IN SPITE OF THESE LIMITING FACTORS COULD

HAVE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

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the threat looks iffier on the latest models. the pattern is still there but we're getting into range where it would be nice to actually see something of note at the surface.

i also don't think supercells would be our primary issue around here if we get anything friday as it would likely congeal to an mcs before that.

but yeah.. our weather kinda blows.

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the new NAM likes WV at least. i dont see how we come out of the stretch with nothing except that it's the mid atlantic.

it's a shame we have no one else interested in storms -- maybe ill have to invite some SNE people in here.

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the new NAM likes WV at least. i dont see how we come out of the stretch with nothing except that it's the mid atlantic.

it's a shame we have no one else interested in storms -- maybe ill have to invite some SNE people in here.

Although models have it progged north, I'd watch that complex moving through PA, early morning.

Some great WAA into Thursday night on the models at 850.

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Although models have it progged north, I'd watch that complex moving through PA, early morning.

Some great WAA into Thursday night on the models at 850.

I don't really want morNing storms but I guess I'd take it. SREF was trying to indicate it might lay out a boundary for later in the day tho that was yesterday and it's fantasy range for that talk. But I'm free Friday eve so yeah. ;)

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the new NAM likes WV at least. i dont see how we come out of the stretch with nothing except that it's the mid atlantic.

it's a shame we have no one else interested in storms -- maybe ill have to invite some SNE people in here.

I'm interested in storms. I've just lived around here long enough to have learned that I'm wasting my time when I track them before they come into radar range...

But don't let that stop you from inviting Wiz to post in here. That dude cracks me up.

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I'm interested in storms. I've just lived around here long enough to have learned that I'm wasting my time when I track them before they come into radar range...

But don't let that stop you from inviting Wiz to post in here. That dude cracks me up.

Agreed!

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I'm interested in storms. I've just lived around here long enough to have learned that I'm wasting my time when I track them before they come into radar range...

But don't let that stop you from inviting Wiz to post in here. That dude cracks me up.

if i had to bet i'd bet i've wasted a lot of time watching but im kinda bored so oh well. :(

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