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Late June 2012 storms


Ian

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http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/events/svrwx_20120622/

...DOWNBURSTS CONFIRMED IN BLADENSBURG AND JOHNSVILLE MARYLAND...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS CONFIRMED THAT DAMAGE IN

TWO MARYLAND LOCALES FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING 22 JUNE 2012

WAS THE RESULT OF DOWNBURST WINDS.

IN JOHNSVILLE MARYLAND...THE ROOF OF A DAIRY BARN WAS DESTROYED AND BLOWN DOWNWIND FOR

SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET. NUMEROUS TREES WERE UPROOTED AND LARGE LIMBS WERE SNAPPED. WIND

IN THIS DOWNBURST WAS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 80 MPH.

IN BLADENSBURG MARYLAND...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE OCCURRED TO BUILDINGS AND TREES. ALONG

NEWTON STREET...ROOF DAMAGE WAS SUSTAINED AT AN APARTMENT BUILDING. PIECES OF THE ROOF

WERE BLOWN DOWNWIND AND DAMAGED VEHICLES. ADDITIONAL HOMES IN THE AREA SUFFERED ROOF

UPLIFT. NUMEROUS TREES WERE UPROOTED...AND MANY LARGE LIMBS WERE SNAPPED. POWER POLES

ALSO WERE OBSERVED TO BE LEANING. WIND IN THIS DOWNBURST WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 TO 100

MPH.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1206 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WESTERN RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

CENTRAL PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1245 AM EDT

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I hear thunder and see some CG lightning strikes looks like in the distance to my west... looks like I-66 is the developing ground

0300 SPC Meso has 2000 SBCAPE with 1000 MLCAPE in N VA... where the storms are developing. Li's still -6 to -7 and 6.5 C/KM ML Lapse rates will also help do the trick

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South of DC could see some nice winds today. Tornado threat has been rather meh from the get-go, but I'm still leaving a small chance of chasing open for southeast VA. Could be some spin-ups along the coastline in VA both near Hampton Roads and in southern Delmarva thanks to some enhanced low-level directional shear from the seabreeze.

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The mid-morning SPC schtuff:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk_20120625_1300.html

day1probotlk_20120625_1300_wind_prt.gif

...NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC...

PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A DIGGING SHORT WAVE

TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ACT ON A MOIST AND

INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS

WITH WIND AND HAIL FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SOUTH TO THE CAROLINAS

TODAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WITH

A MESOLOW AND BOWING LINE SEGMENT EVIDENT ACROSS NRN CT...AND

ANOTHER LINE SEGMENT ACROSS NJ. CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST

TO STRENGTHEN TO BETWEEN 30-50KT COINCIDENT WITH GREATER

DESTABILIZATION FROM NJ SOUTH TO NC AND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL

FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WITH A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE

FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE TIDEWATER OF VA BY EVENING.

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Not a bad forecast sounding for southern Delmarva this afternoon. Speed shear is a little weak from 900mb-600mb and the lapse rates suck from 600mb-500mb, but other than that a fairly solid sounding.

post-96-0-52646400-1340632139_thumb.png

EDIT:

FWIW, the RAP is a lot less exciting wrt tornado potential... keeps winds fairly unidirectional in the low-levels.

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I hear thunder and see some CG lightning strikes looks like in the distance to my west... looks like I-66 is the developing ground

0300 SPC Meso has 2000 SBCAPE with 1000 MLCAPE in N VA... where the storms are developing. Li's still -6 to -7 and 6.5 C/KM ML Lapse rates will also help do the trick

The dog woke me up with his barking at that thunder last night. I got a little excited when I saw the flashes going along with it, then I looked at the radar only to see that it would miss just to the south.

We could really use the rain - we've missed out on pretty much everything since the early-June downpours.

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mcd1270.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0944 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA INTO SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425...

VALID 251444Z - 251545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA

INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA

INTO SRN VA. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH SFC-3KM

LAPSE RATES NOW APPROACHING 8 C/KM SOUTH OF THE WIND SHIFT. AS AIR

MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IT APPEARS CU FIELD WILL GRADUALLY

DEEPEN NEAR/EAST OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SUCH THAT DEEP CONVECTION

SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE

MID-UPPER 80S. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL

BOUNDARY AND SAGGING COLD FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS THIS ACTIVITY.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION

AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION.

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Excessive heat is more believable than legit storms.

yeah tho there is a decent mid-lvl flow and a short wave on the gfs. i'd guess verbatim we're pretty capped (havent looked past 500 maps). but the gfs does break out some stuff late.

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