mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Thanks to Adam for sending this to me http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 not sure about other areas, but in or around the Harrisburg area, many volunteer firehouses have sirens to alert for a call. That siren is also used as a early warning device in the event of a weather emergency and when its activated, sound differently then a normal fire call. The one at our station for a fire call rings 3 times, each lasting 30 seconds. For a weather emergency, it activates and rings soilid for a long time. I have lived across the street from that station almost my entire life as well as serving 30 years there. We educated our residents over and over what it means. I can honestly only ever remembering being activated a coupe times for a weather emergency. During one of those times a resident actually called the station to tell us the siren was stuck, as we were in the process of being pummeled. People just don't pay attention. So i fully support the phone idea, everyone has one. for christ sakes most people can't ever put them down! edit to say: People who live in the Tornado areas, i'm pretty sure they all know what the he$$ is going on when that siren starts going off. except when they say "well they go off all the time, so I've stopped listening to them" I think I've heard simliar in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I just had a coworker walk into my cube and blame me for them not being prepared on Friday. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Some of this has been touched on but I just wanted to add something. One of the downsides of living in an area where a widespread severe event is quite rare is that we will always be unprepared to some extent when a serious event does happen. Especially with thunderstorms. Even if watches and warnings go up hours in advance. We get alot of watches and a decent amount of warnings but the coverage of the storms is typically quite small in comparison to the listening area. It's easy to get complacent even when warnings go up. This most recent event will stick in everyone's memory for awhile so closer attention will be paid for a while but we'll revert back to not worrying too much a year or two down the road. Severe storms are tough to predict too. Especially ones with the magnitude we just had. I don't blame anybody really. You can't go around yelling lifethreatening storms on the way everytime there appears to be a threat moving in. Sure, it makes sense to look back in the rearview and say "gosh, they should have halted all programming an hour in advance and warned serious risk of loss of life and property damage" but I don't think any of us really expected such a beast. I'm like most on here. I stare at models, radars, loops, met posts, and on and on. I honestly didn't know we we're in BIG trouble until the system cleared the apps/blue ridge. The signature was unmistakeable. But there was only about 30-45 minutes of lead at that point. That sucker was hauling ass. The warnings were serious at that point though. Life threatening, dangerous, widespread damage, take shelter immediately, were all included in the warns. But, even with that kind of warning....do people really expect something so intense with such large coverage? No, not really at all. I'm concerned that the media and nws is going to be trigger happy for a while. Anything and everything that looks kinda scary is going to be headlined. But this will cause alot of false alarms and people will start to ignore threats. I guess my ramblings are mostly trying to say that almost all very anomalous weather events will take us a bit by surprise no matter what. And it's really easy to look back and say we should have and could have done better. I'm glad I'm not a public official or met that is responsible for public awareness. The stress of that job would eat me alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I just had a coworker walk into my cube and blame me for them not being prepared on Friday. SMH Gotta love that. I quit talking weather with my co-workers. I got blamed if it didn't snow or even if it did. Now when people ask me "Hey, is it going to storm"? i say not sure, watch the weather channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 You may or may not, but let me phrase it another way. A greater proportion of the Washington/Baltimore metropolitan region actually saw with their own eyes wind gusts higher than 60 mph in this single event than in any other single event since 1954. So while we may individually see stronger winds at some point,for the region as a whole, this is once-in-a-generation type winds. You said it perfectly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I'm concerned that the media and nws is going to be trigger happy for a while. Anything and everything that looks kinda scary is going to be headlined. But this will cause alot of false alarms and people will start to ignore threats. I guess my ramblings are mostly trying to say that almost all very anomalous weather events will take us a bit by surprise no matter what. And it's really easy to look back and say we should have and could have done better. I'm glad I'm not a public official or met that is responsible for public awareness. The stress of that job would eat me alive. I don't know about the media, but the NWS will certainly not change their process for issuing warnings because of this derecho. It isn't their job to factor in the way people will perceive a warning and they cannot be concerned with things like this at the time they have to make a decision about issuing a warning. If you feel improvement cannot be made in the forecasting process then I am not sure what I can type to convince you otherwise. There are plenty of ways of increasing the percentage of people to say to themselves, "hey I've been out for a good portion of the day, let me see how the weather is evolving because I remember so and so saying...etc." The forecasts leading up the warning time, not the warnings themselves, I thought could use major improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 But even region wide, to say this is the first real thunderstorm to meet severe criteria is a little over the top. There have been derechos before or even just squall lines that have produced severe winds, maybe not as strong as Friday but it still happened. That's not what I said. I said it was the first storm since hazel where such a high percent of the area saw verified STW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 And even if we just use the hard numbers... 71 mph wind gust at IAD and 70 mph gusts at DCA *are* rare events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 except when they say "well they go off all the time, so I've stopped listening to them" I think I've heard simliar in this thread Read the earlier pages (pages 20-30) I think in the Joplin thread over in the general wx forum there's a lot of stories of people saying that. Happens all the time, there will always be people who tune out sirens and warnings and without fail they'll be the ones interviewed saying "I wasn't warned soon enough" I agree that a text-based system would be best, but it would require a significant cellular infrastructure improvement. A text alert on the magnitude of millions will tax the towers and might be delayed enough where the traditional routes may actually be quicker in notifying the public (assuming the infrastructure remains as-is and not improved to be able to handle such a sudden traffic increase). I'll touch on this briefly but during the VT shootings (which I was on campus for) towers were jammed with students and families trying to get in contact with one another. E-mail was slow and text messages wouldn't send for a long time. The text-based system is a good idea going forward but it probably wouldn't be easily implemented in a large metro area imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Read the earlier pages (pages 20-30) I think in the Joplin thread over in the general wx forum there's a lot of stories of people saying that. Happens all the time, there will always be people who tune out sirens and warnings and without fail they'll be the ones interviewed saying "I wasn't warned soon enough" I agree that a text-based system would be best, but it would require a significant cellular infrastructure improvement. A text alert on the magnitude of millions will tax the towers and might be delayed enough where the traditional routes may actually be quicker in notifying the public (assuming the infrastructure remains as-is and not improved to be able to handle such a sudden traffic increase). I'll touch on this briefly but during the VT shootings (which I was on campus for) towers were jammed with students and families trying to get in contact with one another. E-mail was slow and text messages wouldn't send for a long time. The text-based system is a good idea going forward but it probably wouldn't be easily implemented in a large metro area imo Same problems around here during the earthquake. No cell phone calls or texts were able to get through for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I don't know about the media, but the NWS will certainly not change their process for issuing warnings because of this derecho. It isn't their job to factor in the way people will perceive a warning and they cannot be concerned with things like this at the time they have to make a decision about issuing a warning. If you feel improvement cannot be made in the forecasting process then I am not sure what I can type to convince you otherwise. There are plenty of ways of increasing the percentage of people to say to themselves, "hey I've been out for a good portion of the day, let me see how the weather is evolving because I remember so and so saying...etc." The forecasts leading up the warning time, not the warnings themselves, I thought could use major improvement. irt day 1+ lead then yes, that can be abosultely be improved. But it's just tricky around here. We've seen plenty of setups that showed the potential for high impact events but it's a pretty large minority that actually materialize. The vast majority of severe threads for the MA subforum start off fun but end up busted. And we watch every single detail closely. We just don't get alot of severe around here and the public unfortunately knows this and doesn't really have a handle of how bad a severe event can be. We got a damn good taste of Friday but we'll soon forget about it as endless boring weather days happen in between. The challenge lies with knowing when to start beating the drum without getting a reputation of crying wolf. There is definite room for improvement in awareness with 1+ day lead time but I'm not sure how mets or public officials can end up being right more often than being wrong. The only way to increase the % of people to keep themselves informed and be aware is to believe that the guidance is accurate. It's unfair to expect that kind of accuracy because it's impossible but the general population doesn't know how to be fair with weather forecasting. There is absolutely room for improvement. I wasn't trying to refute that. Trying to improve while maintaining the public's awareness is awful tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Gotta love that. I quit talking weather with my co-workers. I got blamed if it didn't snow or even if it did. Now when people ask me "Hey, is it going to storm"? i say not sure, watch the weather channel. I usually do give heads up on incoming weather to my office. Friday I briefly mentioned it at a lunch meeting, and didn't mention it again the rest of the day. But don't blame me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Same problems around here during the earthquake. No cell phone calls or texts were able to get through for a while. I see what everyone is saying, with damage to infastructure, you'll lose service, however Its the 1st one that counts. I get one from the NWS everytime my area goes into an advisory, watch or warning. which is usaully ahead of time before the event happens. I'm not an expert on communications though, so i'm sure it could be nightmarish. I think of only my lil nook and cranny of the world, where reverse 911 hits all house and business's pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I usually do give heads up on incoming weather to my office. Friday I briefly mentioned it at a lunch meeting, and didn't mention it again the rest of the day. But don't blame me. It's a lose lose sometimes isn't it? I'm done trying to be a weather hero with my peers because for whatever reason, they love to focus on the busts and forget about the good calls. I usually just tell them to keep eyes and ears open when any type of significant event comes around. On Friday I told my office to pay attention later on around 8pm just in case. I doubt anybody did though. I was like most on here. Gotta get across the apps.....not sure about the trajectory........the sun will be down......and of course.....we never get big severe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It's a lose lose sometimes isn't it? I'm done trying to be a weather hero with my peers because for whatever reason, they love to focus on the busts and forget about the good calls. I usually just tell them to keep eyes and ears open when any type of significant event comes around. On Friday I told my office to pay attention later on around 8pm just in case. I doubt anybody did though. I was like most on here. Gotta get across the apps.....not sure about the trajectory........the sun will be down......and of course.....we never get big severe.... Well the coworker who actually decided to blame me was quickly put in her place, so I doubt she will blame me again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Thanks to Adam for sending this to me http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm Every two years? Not sure I buy that for up here in pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 irt day 1+ lead then yes, that can be abosultely be improved. But it's just tricky around here. We've seen plenty of setups that showed the potential for high impact events but it's a pretty large minority that actually materialize. The vast majority of severe threads for the MA subforum start off fun but end up busted. And we watch every single detail closely. We just don't get alot of severe around here and the public unfortunately knows this and doesn't really have a handle of how bad a severe event can be. We got a damn good taste of Friday but we'll soon forget about it as endless boring weather days happen in between. The challenge lies with knowing when to start beating the drum without getting a reputation of crying wolf. There is definite room for improvement in awareness with 1+ day lead time but I'm not sure how mets or public officials can end up being right more often than being wrong. The only way to increase the % of people to keep themselves informed and be aware is to believe that the guidance is accurate. It's unfair to expect that kind of accuracy because it's impossible but the general population doesn't know how to be fair with weather forecasting. There is absolutely room for improvement. I wasn't trying to refute that. Trying to improve while maintaining the public's awareness is awful tough. It sure is a pain in the, but it is times like this when we rely heavily on our forecasters. We can't continue to say, "well this was so anomalous, who can forecast that?" The simple truth is: the SPC did not do a stellar job at conveying the probabilities for SIG SVR on DAY 1 early enough (it wasn't until 01z outlook that the mod risk showed up). But putting them aside, the general forecasts were also terrible. Unfortunately, there are several forecasters who do not understand general met 101; and the ones that do, probably aren't well versed on derecho dynamics in this area. From our end, we can be better prepared at recognizing a pattern conducive for SIG SVR and develop a way to convey that information appropriately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It sure is a pain in the, but it is times like this when we rely heavily on our forecasters. We can't continue to say, "well this was so anomalous, who can forecast that?" The simple truth is: the SPC did not do a stellar job at conveying the probabilities for SIG SVR on DAY 1 early enough (it wasn't until 01z outlook that the mod risk showed up). But putting them aside, the general forecasts were also terrible. Unfortunately, there are several forecasters who do not understand general met 101; and the ones that do, probably aren't well versed on derecho dynamics in this area. From our end, we can be better prepared at recognizing a pattern conducive for SIG SVR and developing a way to convey that information appropriately. I agree SPC could have done better - but I do know my local met at the 5 and 6pm news Friday showed radar of the storms in OH and mentioned the chance it may impact us later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Every two years? Not sure I buy that for up here in pa. i think by definition there are a number of derechos that are not necessarily remembered for being remarkable as far as population impacts go. the graphic is misleading imo without some sort of explanation -- at least in the way it's being shared post-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 i think by definition there are a number of derechos that are not necessarily remembered for being remarkable as far as population impacts go. the graphic is misleading imo without some sort of explanation -- at least in the way it's being shared post-event. Its a fact page directly from SPC - said it was last updated 3/1/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 i think by definition there are a number of derechos that are not necessarily remembered for being remarkable as far as population impacts go. the graphic is misleading imo without some sort of explanation -- at least in the way it's being shared post-event. Yes very miss leading as its even difficult to get an MCS event let alone a derecho event here in SE PA normally new England gets these more then our megalopolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Here is another page about climo and derecho's http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/climatologypage.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Well the coworker who actually decided to blame me was quickly put in her place, so I doubt she will blame me again i would have bet money on that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 by 9 pm it was clear that something serious was coming. I'm not sure the local stations ever cut away. as I said earlier, even TWC didn't switch from its dumb reality programming until 9:30 and then at 10 I lost power. Trix, I do know that Channel 9 in DC cut in during programming right around 9 or a bit after. My wife was upstairs putting the kids to bed, and called to me because Topper Shutt (I believe) was zooming in on the cells that had been tornado-warned crossing Mineral and Morgan Cos. He mentioned an expected path that would bring it to Hedgesville, which is just a short distance to my south. At that point we brought the kids back downstairs, but when I returned to the computer the internet connection was failing due to the storm. Don't know how long 9 stayed with coverage, because at that point I was positioning where I usually do during heavy weather- in the center of my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 the second page gives an explanation how the previous map was created... thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Its a fact page directly from SPC - said it was last updated 3/1/2012 i know what it is. the page is one of the first when googling derecho. but, i think derecho is now equated with what happened Friday in the minds of many and as much as i hate accuweather it was a super derecho especially in terms of the population density it impacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 i know what it is. the page is one of the first when googling derecho. but, i think derecho is now equated with what happened Friday in the minds of many and as much as i hate accuweather it was a super derecho Sorry, yes, you are correct. I did post another link on how the authors came up with that image, re: derecho climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 i think by definition there are a number of derechos that are not necessarily remembered for being remarkable as far as population impacts go. the graphic is misleading imo without some sort of explanation -- at least in the way it's being shared post-event. Speaking of "definition," I have a 1988 Webster's Dictionary, and "derecho" is not in it. According to Wikipedia: "The word was first used in the American Meteorological Journal in 1888 by Gustavus Detlef Hinrichs in a paper describing the phenomenon and based on a significant derecho event that crossed Iowa on 31 July 1877." So even 100 years after that paper, the word was not in popular use. Does anyone know when it did come into popular use?* *My guess is June 29, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 i know what it is. the page is one of the first when googling derecho. but, i think derecho is now equated with what happened Friday in the minds of many and as much as i hate accuweather it was a super derecho especially in terms of the population density it impacted. Got this from an email listserve I am on. To be fair to AccuWeather, at least in part, they did not coin the term "super derecho." Rather, that term was coined by Morris Weisman of NCAR in 2009 to describe the 8 May 2009 derecho and associated intense warm-cored mesovortex. Albeit somewhat begrudgingly, the term has caught on in reference to the 8 May 2009 event, e.g.: http://www.spc.noaa....ay82009page.htm https://www2.ucar.ed...per-sized-storm (and also: Weisman et al. 2012, in revision for Weather and Forecasting) That said: AccuWeather is using both it quite out of context here. Yesterday's derecho event, while intense and memorable in its own right, was not associated with an intense mesovortex of any sort, yet alone a warm-cored one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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