Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I don't know about the media, but the NWS will certainly not change their process for issuing warnings because of this derecho. It isn't their job to factor in the way people will perceive a warning and they cannot be concerned with things like this at the time they have to make a decision about issuing a warning. If you feel improvement cannot be made in the forecasting process then I am not sure what I can type to convince you otherwise. There are plenty of ways of increasing the percentage of people to say to themselves, "hey I've been out for a good portion of the day, let me see how the weather is evolving because I remember so and so saying...etc." The forecasts leading up the warning time, not the warnings themselves, I thought could use major improvement. irt day 1+ lead then yes, that can be abosultely be improved. But it's just tricky around here. We've seen plenty of setups that showed the potential for high impact events but it's a pretty large minority that actually materialize. The vast majority of severe threads for the MA subforum start off fun but end up busted. And we watch every single detail closely. We just don't get alot of severe around here and the public unfortunately knows this and doesn't really have a handle of how bad a severe event can be. We got a damn good taste of Friday but we'll soon forget about it as endless boring weather days happen in between. The challenge lies with knowing when to start beating the drum without getting a reputation of crying wolf. There is definite room for improvement in awareness with 1+ day lead time but I'm not sure how mets or public officials can end up being right more often than being wrong. The only way to increase the % of people to keep themselves informed and be aware is to believe that the guidance is accurate. It's unfair to expect that kind of accuracy because it's impossible but the general population doesn't know how to be fair with weather forecasting. There is absolutely room for improvement. I wasn't trying to refute that. Trying to improve while maintaining the public's awareness is awful tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Gotta love that. I quit talking weather with my co-workers. I got blamed if it didn't snow or even if it did. Now when people ask me "Hey, is it going to storm"? i say not sure, watch the weather channel. I usually do give heads up on incoming weather to my office. Friday I briefly mentioned it at a lunch meeting, and didn't mention it again the rest of the day. But don't blame me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Same problems around here during the earthquake. No cell phone calls or texts were able to get through for a while. I see what everyone is saying, with damage to infastructure, you'll lose service, however Its the 1st one that counts. I get one from the NWS everytime my area goes into an advisory, watch or warning. which is usaully ahead of time before the event happens. I'm not an expert on communications though, so i'm sure it could be nightmarish. I think of only my lil nook and cranny of the world, where reverse 911 hits all house and business's pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I usually do give heads up on incoming weather to my office. Friday I briefly mentioned it at a lunch meeting, and didn't mention it again the rest of the day. But don't blame me. It's a lose lose sometimes isn't it? I'm done trying to be a weather hero with my peers because for whatever reason, they love to focus on the busts and forget about the good calls. I usually just tell them to keep eyes and ears open when any type of significant event comes around. On Friday I told my office to pay attention later on around 8pm just in case. I doubt anybody did though. I was like most on here. Gotta get across the apps.....not sure about the trajectory........the sun will be down......and of course.....we never get big severe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It's a lose lose sometimes isn't it? I'm done trying to be a weather hero with my peers because for whatever reason, they love to focus on the busts and forget about the good calls. I usually just tell them to keep eyes and ears open when any type of significant event comes around. On Friday I told my office to pay attention later on around 8pm just in case. I doubt anybody did though. I was like most on here. Gotta get across the apps.....not sure about the trajectory........the sun will be down......and of course.....we never get big severe.... Well the coworker who actually decided to blame me was quickly put in her place, so I doubt she will blame me again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Thanks to Adam for sending this to me http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm Every two years? Not sure I buy that for up here in pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 irt day 1+ lead then yes, that can be abosultely be improved. But it's just tricky around here. We've seen plenty of setups that showed the potential for high impact events but it's a pretty large minority that actually materialize. The vast majority of severe threads for the MA subforum start off fun but end up busted. And we watch every single detail closely. We just don't get alot of severe around here and the public unfortunately knows this and doesn't really have a handle of how bad a severe event can be. We got a damn good taste of Friday but we'll soon forget about it as endless boring weather days happen in between. The challenge lies with knowing when to start beating the drum without getting a reputation of crying wolf. There is definite room for improvement in awareness with 1+ day lead time but I'm not sure how mets or public officials can end up being right more often than being wrong. The only way to increase the % of people to keep themselves informed and be aware is to believe that the guidance is accurate. It's unfair to expect that kind of accuracy because it's impossible but the general population doesn't know how to be fair with weather forecasting. There is absolutely room for improvement. I wasn't trying to refute that. Trying to improve while maintaining the public's awareness is awful tough. It sure is a pain in the, but it is times like this when we rely heavily on our forecasters. We can't continue to say, "well this was so anomalous, who can forecast that?" The simple truth is: the SPC did not do a stellar job at conveying the probabilities for SIG SVR on DAY 1 early enough (it wasn't until 01z outlook that the mod risk showed up). But putting them aside, the general forecasts were also terrible. Unfortunately, there are several forecasters who do not understand general met 101; and the ones that do, probably aren't well versed on derecho dynamics in this area. From our end, we can be better prepared at recognizing a pattern conducive for SIG SVR and develop a way to convey that information appropriately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It sure is a pain in the, but it is times like this when we rely heavily on our forecasters. We can't continue to say, "well this was so anomalous, who can forecast that?" The simple truth is: the SPC did not do a stellar job at conveying the probabilities for SIG SVR on DAY 1 early enough (it wasn't until 01z outlook that the mod risk showed up). But putting them aside, the general forecasts were also terrible. Unfortunately, there are several forecasters who do not understand general met 101; and the ones that do, probably aren't well versed on derecho dynamics in this area. From our end, we can be better prepared at recognizing a pattern conducive for SIG SVR and developing a way to convey that information appropriately. I agree SPC could have done better - but I do know my local met at the 5 and 6pm news Friday showed radar of the storms in OH and mentioned the chance it may impact us later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Every two years? Not sure I buy that for up here in pa. i think by definition there are a number of derechos that are not necessarily remembered for being remarkable as far as population impacts go. the graphic is misleading imo without some sort of explanation -- at least in the way it's being shared post-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 i think by definition there are a number of derechos that are not necessarily remembered for being remarkable as far as population impacts go. the graphic is misleading imo without some sort of explanation -- at least in the way it's being shared post-event. Its a fact page directly from SPC - said it was last updated 3/1/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 i think by definition there are a number of derechos that are not necessarily remembered for being remarkable as far as population impacts go. the graphic is misleading imo without some sort of explanation -- at least in the way it's being shared post-event. Yes very miss leading as its even difficult to get an MCS event let alone a derecho event here in SE PA normally new England gets these more then our megalopolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Here is another page about climo and derecho's http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/climatologypage.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Well the coworker who actually decided to blame me was quickly put in her place, so I doubt she will blame me again i would have bet money on that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 by 9 pm it was clear that something serious was coming. I'm not sure the local stations ever cut away. as I said earlier, even TWC didn't switch from its dumb reality programming until 9:30 and then at 10 I lost power. Trix, I do know that Channel 9 in DC cut in during programming right around 9 or a bit after. My wife was upstairs putting the kids to bed, and called to me because Topper Shutt (I believe) was zooming in on the cells that had been tornado-warned crossing Mineral and Morgan Cos. He mentioned an expected path that would bring it to Hedgesville, which is just a short distance to my south. At that point we brought the kids back downstairs, but when I returned to the computer the internet connection was failing due to the storm. Don't know how long 9 stayed with coverage, because at that point I was positioning where I usually do during heavy weather- in the center of my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 the second page gives an explanation how the previous map was created... thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Its a fact page directly from SPC - said it was last updated 3/1/2012 i know what it is. the page is one of the first when googling derecho. but, i think derecho is now equated with what happened Friday in the minds of many and as much as i hate accuweather it was a super derecho especially in terms of the population density it impacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 i know what it is. the page is one of the first when googling derecho. but, i think derecho is now equated with what happened Friday in the minds of many and as much as i hate accuweather it was a super derecho Sorry, yes, you are correct. I did post another link on how the authors came up with that image, re: derecho climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 i think by definition there are a number of derechos that are not necessarily remembered for being remarkable as far as population impacts go. the graphic is misleading imo without some sort of explanation -- at least in the way it's being shared post-event. Speaking of "definition," I have a 1988 Webster's Dictionary, and "derecho" is not in it. According to Wikipedia: "The word was first used in the American Meteorological Journal in 1888 by Gustavus Detlef Hinrichs in a paper describing the phenomenon and based on a significant derecho event that crossed Iowa on 31 July 1877." So even 100 years after that paper, the word was not in popular use. Does anyone know when it did come into popular use?* *My guess is June 29, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 i know what it is. the page is one of the first when googling derecho. but, i think derecho is now equated with what happened Friday in the minds of many and as much as i hate accuweather it was a super derecho especially in terms of the population density it impacted. Got this from an email listserve I am on. To be fair to AccuWeather, at least in part, they did not coin the term "super derecho." Rather, that term was coined by Morris Weisman of NCAR in 2009 to describe the 8 May 2009 derecho and associated intense warm-cored mesovortex. Albeit somewhat begrudgingly, the term has caught on in reference to the 8 May 2009 event, e.g.: http://www.spc.noaa....ay82009page.htm https://www2.ucar.ed...per-sized-storm (and also: Weisman et al. 2012, in revision for Weather and Forecasting) That said: AccuWeather is using both it quite out of context here. Yesterday's derecho event, while intense and memorable in its own right, was not associated with an intense mesovortex of any sort, yet alone a warm-cored one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 but, i think derecho is now equated with what happened Friday in the minds of many and as much as i hate accuweather it was a super derecho especially in terms of the population density it impacted. Not that there is any official naming procedure for these but the May 2009 central US derecho is generally referred to as "super derecho." Personally I'd give that title to the May 30-31, 1998 event. It's hard to beat this especially in terms of insane high-end wind reports. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may30-311998page.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Eh, didn't see your post catoctin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Eh, didn't see your post catoctin. No prob, I was plagiarizing someone else's research anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Both the Friday storm and the July 2010 storms are very good learning experiences for me irt my own backyard. July 2010 followed 3 days of very hot weather (close to 100 for 3 days straight). The bow echo looked angry as hell and my neighborhood took in on the chin. I had 3 large trees topped and roof damage. I remember telling my wife on Friday night that the radar was looking like a much larger version of the 2010 storm. It was uncanny though how similar the radar looked though. The bow basically took the same path and the damage was incredibly similar. I suffered very little damage this go around but I have to think that the tree damage in 2010 is why. Same wind direction and strength. Not much left to break I guess. I'm always going to be on high alert when organized convection breaks out during periods of very high heat (especially when ul flow is coming off the top of the ridge). I know this is met 101 stuff but these 2 events were very high impact and similar in many ways. Now that I have a much better handle at understanding the conditions leading up to these types of events it will help me be better prepared personally. I didn't take the 2010 storm that seriously though. I stood by my sliding glass door watching the destruction happen....and then a branch came through the ceiling and missed my head by literally less than a foot. I got showered with insulation and drywall pieces. I've replayed that moment 100's if not 1000's of times in my mind too. On Friday night, we all took shelter in my basement pantry. 10x12 nook in my basement with 3 sides of cinderblocks. I'll never be caught exposed in the upper levels of my house again with this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Not that there is any official naming procedure for these but the May 2009 central US derecho is generally referred to as "super derecho." Personally I'd give that title to the May 30-31, 1998 event. It's hard to beat this especially in terms of insane high-end wind reports. http://www.spc.noaa....-311998page.htm i didnt know there was actually a semi-official thing for super derecho. as far as high end wind im sure there are others that beat this one.. but if we're going to put june 4 2008 on the derecho list there is clearly a difference between events with this one covering a much larger area. though perhaps it's debatable whether or not the june 4 event was a derecho. i haven't personally measured the length from start to finish and assessed it against density of reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Here is another link regarding derecho climo http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/papers/Ashley_2005.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Looking at this article makes it look like the event was handled very well. Doesn't feel like though. http://www.wtop.com/41/2925683/Timeline-of-Fridays-ferocious-derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Looking at this article makes it look like the event was handled very well. Doesn't feel like though. http://www.wtop.com/...rocious-derecho i think the locals handled the day of (at least after the storms formed) fairly well considering. the bigger question is prior to the timeframe covered. also it's kind of generous to say spc put dc under a slight risk in the morning. the first d1 was nowhere close (didnt even cover ohio) and we didn't "officially" get into slight risk in dc till the 1630z update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Our power is out. The irony is that it made it through Fridays storm and last night's storm just fine. Never lost power until this morning at 8:30 because some trees are laying across lines in the neighborhood making for a "hazardous situation." I've read some of the discussion from today but I'm on my phone and it would take the rest of the night to catch up, but I do not blame BGE for this. I am, however, ready to go knock a few of my neughbor's teeth out for not maintaining trees that they planted or allowed to grow into the power lines in their backyards. BGE comes through our hood every few years cutting back growth, but the swamp maples and other trash trees that grow rampant are impossible for them to keep up with. So now it's going to be "a day to a week" before we get power back because I've got hillbilly neighbors that don't have enough sense to cut a figgin' tree before it grows into the power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 A couple of suggestions. The event could have been well timed and predicted starting around 8pm because all the parameters looked good and there was a healthy storm with a proven track record. SPC probably should go with a PDS severe thunderstorm watch, which is almost exclusively used for derechos. Odds of severe criteara winds IMBY were way higher than a normal watch. 70mph winds are a lot different than 55mph winds making damage very challenging to predict. It There werent trees falling on people in Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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