Avdave Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 the governor of WV has declared a state of emergency. but the National Guard is needed in the rural areas where people are trapped by downed wires and trees. out there is 100x worse than here in town. I would think they have a priority type of system. Major roads, cities that lead to govt/hospitals, etc then the lesser used roads and smaller towns, similar like they do when removing snow after a large snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 And yet I have not seen a National Guard truck anywhere to be seen to help out in the state of emergency. Im not saying that is the power companies fault either. Im just sayin. The guard should be out there cleaning up debris while the utility companies can focus on substations and wires. true, but it is a long trip from Afghanistan...or where ever else we send them these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 true, but it is a long trip from Afghanistan...or where ever else we send them these days... Ok lets not get carried away Chris. lol. We have plenty of Natl Guard here at home too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Ok lets not get carried away Chris. lol. We have plenty of Natl Guard here at home too. yes i know it was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think one conundrum here with regard to earlier lead is what if it did not happen. The signs were clearly there days ahead that someone from our area to SNE would face the potential of a rare event given the pattern and the unusual EML being transported into the area. It is of course easier to say "why did people F up" since it happened. But, I'm sure there are plenty of cases where we saw a similar look and nothing occurred. NWS zone forecasts are just not made to handle this type of event. "Mostly sunny, with a slight chance of storms. Oh, those storms may end up being a giant squall line if it happens but we don't know if it will because we don't necessarily see a trigger." BUT, NWS et al are all into social media etc now. There's no reason they can't use those mediums beforehand to say, hey everyone, just a heads up, this is a volatile pattern. If we end up in a situation where there is a large squall line coming you need to pay extra attention. We actually had a side discussion among several of us with CWG on Thursday night. We did not include a "storm threat index" number. I was nervous about that, but even as someone who saw the potential I was not able to convince myself based on model output that we'd see what we saw when we did. So... I really don't know the answer, but that doesnt mean there is no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 And yet I have not seen a National Guard truck anywhere to be seen to help out in the state of emergency. Im not saying that is the power companies fault either. Im just sayin. The guard should be out there cleaning up debris while the utility companies can focus on substations and wires. i agree Dave. Everyone should have a role and stay within that role. The national gaurd should come and fill in the holes. With what Trix said, doesn't sound like there is enough bodies to help out. Seems like they prioritized and sent they help to the country where its worse. I have been in situations like this, when you don't have enough manpower to handle it. helpless feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 No, no I didn't. I understood you completely. It was the first real taste people got of a severe thunderstorm criteria... Forget all those other times severe thunderstorm warnings came true Wait so it is back to the first disagreement. You see individual, I see region. Would you be ok calling Agnes a benchmark rainstorm for the area even though you may have seen more rain and flooding in your own town several times since? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Ian, maybe the NWS wasnt able to really convey it either? I mean there really wasn't a lot on the models to go off of. One run had a squall come through and the next didn't. Hell even in this thread Friday afternoon there was confusion over what was coming. Regardless though, I think the hours of lead time with the watch was sufficient and I had a good half hour or more with my severe warning before what I got actually arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 at least my 450 followers on twitter were prepared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think one conundrum here with regard to earlier lead is what if it did not happen. The signs were clearly there days ahead that someone from our area to SNE would face the potential of a rare event given the pattern and the unusual EML being transported into the area. It is of course easier to say "why did people F up" since it happened. But, I'm sure there are plenty of cases where we saw a similar look and nothing occurred. NWS zone forecasts are just not made to handle this type of event. "Mostly sunny, with a slight chance of storms. Oh, those storms may end up being a giant squall line if it happens but we don't know if it will because we don't necessarily see a trigger." BUT, NWS et al are all into social media etc now. There's no reason they can't use those mediums beforehand to say, hey everyone, just a heads up, this is a volatile pattern. If we end up in a situation where there is a large squall line coming you need to pay extra attention. We actually had a side discussion among several of us with CWG on Thursday night. We did not include a "storm threat index" number. I was nervous about that, but even as someone who saw the potential I was not able to convince myself based on model output that we'd see what we saw when we did. So... I really don't know the answer, but that doesnt mean there is no problem. Pretty much nailed it with this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Wait so it is back to the first disagreement. You see individual, I see region. Would you be ok calling Agnes a benchmark rainstorm for the area even though you may have seen more rain and flooding in your own town several times since? But even region wide, to say this is the first real thunderstorm to meet severe criteria is a little over the top. There have been derechos before or even just squall lines that have produced severe winds, maybe not as strong as Friday but it still happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 But even region wide, to say this is the first real thunderstorm to meet severe criteria is a little over the top. There have been derechos before or even just squall lines that have produced severe winds, maybe not as strong as Friday but it still happened. I think he's saying this is the rare storm where a lot of people see severe weather. MOST severe thunderstorms around here impact only a small area with true (as defined) severe conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 This sort of after-action hand-wringing/blame-assigning is something I unfortunately had to do a few times in the AF. But, the conclusion is usually the same...the burden is on the weather professional to relay EXPLICITLY to the consumer (the public in this case) the danger and impact of a particular event. On the flipside, it's very hard as scientists to ever predict a once-in-a-decade/once-in-a-generation type event, because you will almost always be wrong (see Joe Bastardi for evidence) when you do. Despite the fact that the public has ACCESS to more weather information than ever before, I very much doubt they are any more educated to properly interpret that data. I'd be shocked if more than a tiny percentage of the population would see a line of thunderstorms in Ohio and begin to prepare themselves for widespread hurricane force winds 6 hours later. I'm sure most of them would either think those storms would dissipate long before they reached DC/Balt area or that they'd be "normal" summer thunderstorms. So, I really don't think you can give really any blame to the public/government/power companies. Standard watches/warnings are just generally inadequate for this type of event. The fact that SPC did not even have us in a Slight risk until late in the afternoon and that most forecasts were standard "30% chance of thunderstorms" gave no impression of a historic event. Yes, in the later warnings as the event was unfolding, strong wording was used, but still most of the public does not get that message...particularly since it occurred at 9pm-12am for most of us. Most of the public has little reaction to a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. We get dozens each year. We only get a handful of Winter Storm Warnings and less than one Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning. Common events that most people see little effect from get little response. I think the way to have gotten response on this was to start with the morning news and indicate the potential for unusually widespread severe winds. As things got more imminent with the evening news, the news outlets should have been warning the public of imminent danger. This is all a shoulda/coulda/woulda game, but hopefully it will inform future such events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think he's saying this is the rare storm where a lot of people see severe weather. MOST severe thunderstorms around here impact only a small area with true (as defined) severe conditions. Memorable is a good word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think the way to have gotten response on this was to start with the morning news and indicate the potential for unusually widespread severe winds. As things got more imminent with the evening news, the news outlets should have been warning the public of imminent danger. This is all a shoulda/coulda/woulda game, but hopefully it will inform future such events. I agree, but as you stated before the potential and threat for the metro area didn't exist until after 12 PM EDT. In that instance, it would be the local mets job to cut into programming (cause who really needs to see the 27th rerun of a Golden Girls episode?) once it looked like the storms weren't going to break up and enter the metro region later in the day (say 3 PMish). Unfortunately, more often than not we get false calls and the public just learns to tune the mets out. Tis quite the catch-22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 it would be the local mets job to cut into programming What programming? Who is actually watching live TV anymore? People are playing their Xbox or IMing or watching a DVD movie, or something recorded on their DVR. Or watching internet porn. I didn't have the foggiest idea the event was coming until I saw it on the TV in the gym at around 9PM-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I actually saw less damage personally than in 08 though I'm not sure I looked as hard. Around here pretty much only my street had trees down. This is the worst I have seen since Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 This is the worst I have seen since Isabel. yeah im sure i just didnt look that hard. i havent ventured more than a few blocks since friday. there was certainly a lot of at least minor damage near the jefferson.. plus rock creek parkway was closed etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 yeah im sure i just didnt look that hard. i havent ventured more than a few blocks since friday. there was certainly a lot of at least minor damage near the jefferson.. plus rock creek parkway was closed etc. It is pretty bad in old town. Though much worse elsewhere. My mom went out to her bf's to clean out his fridge in Annandale and drove through Camelot and said it looked like a war zone. Isabel had more saturated ground and longer duration and the 2-3" of rain snd the river flooding so no real comparison, but this is the worst I ever remember outside of a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 What programming? Who is actually watching live TV anymore? People are playing their Xbox or IMing or watching a DVD movie, or something recorded on their DVR. Or watching internet porn. I didn't have the foggiest idea the event was coming until I saw it on the TV in the gym at around 9PM-ish. Thats why all cell phones should get instant notication of the severe weather threat. just like homes should get a reverse 911 call. It will save lifes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 by 9 pm it was clear that something serious was coming. I'm not sure the local stations ever cut away. as I said earlier, even TWC didn't switch from its dumb reality programming until 9:30 and then at 10 I lost power. We get standard watches and warnings all the time. There was nothing stopping generally informed, aware people from going about their business or even hitting a BBQ. This was poorly handled. Though in the aftermath people have to be MUCH more understanding about the impact which was not preventable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Thats why all cell phones should get instant notication of the severe weather threat. just like homes should get a reverse 911 call. It will save lifes Agreed 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think one conundrum here with regard to earlier lead is what if it did not happen. The signs were clearly there days ahead that someone from our area to SNE would face the potential of a rare event given the pattern and the unusual EML being transported into the area. It is of course easier to say "why did people F up" since it happened. But, I'm sure there are plenty of cases where we saw a similar look and nothing occurred. Can you make a comparison to this with the June 1st ordeal. Do you think more people were made aware of that potential simply because we were dealing with "tornadoes" instead of damaging winds? Personally, I'd rather suggest to the public that there is potential for thunderstorms to produce significant wind damage should they materialize and nothing happens vs. the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Can you make a compare to this with the June 1st ordeal. Do you think more people were made aware of that potential simply because we were dealing with "tornadoes" instead of damaging winds? Personally, I'd rather suggest to the public that there is potential for thunderstorms to produce significant wind damage should they materialize and nothing happens vs. the opposite. Yes. People get over the fact that they were over warned in about 10 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Yes. People get over the fact that they were over warned in about 10 seconds. Nothing wrong with being an on-air TV MET Friday Morning and saying something like, "Folks we have a chance for some thunderstorms later today. We aren't sure if they will materalize; but if they do, have the potential to bring unusally strong wind to the area. Please pay attention if you are heading...etc.etc." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Can you make a compare to this with the June 1st ordeal. Do you think more people were made aware of that potential simply because we were dealing with "tornadoes" instead of damaging winds? Personally, I'd rather suggest to the public that there is potential for thunderstorms to produce significant wind damage should they materialize and nothing happens vs. the opposite. No doubt more people were aware of June 1.. the drumbeat started at least 2 or 3 days in advance for that one. I'm generally against forecasting based off potential as I think the industry (largely the media side) has a tendency to overhype everything these days. But even outside a massive event like this, wind damage is far worse in any year than tornadoes around here. Granted, if for some reason an EF-3 had ripped through DC or something, June 1 would be a different story. In this case I don't think there is a real excuse for not mentioning potential further ahead than it was. I don't know of any forecasting group who mentioned anything of the sort in a public forecast. Sure, people might have ignored it, etc. And if it busted then we'd take some heat for scaring or such. But, forecasts bust all the time so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Nothing wrong with being an on-air TV MET Friday Morning and saying something like, "Folks we have a chance for some thunderstorms later today. We aren't sure if they will materalize; but if they do, have the potential to bring unusally strong wind to the area. Please pay attention if you are heading...etc.etc." Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 This is all really good convo.. thx to everyone who's chimed in. I'm mostly done with the piece for CWG but I wasn't quite ready to have it posted today and there are some good thoughts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Agreed 100% not sure about other areas, but in or around the Harrisburg area, many volunteer firehouses have sirens to alert for a call. That siren is also used as a early warning device in the event of a weather emergency and when its activated, sound differently then a normal fire call. The one at our station for a fire call rings 3 times, each lasting 30 seconds. For a weather emergency, it activates and rings soilid for a long time. I have lived across the street from that station almost my entire life as well as serving 30 years there. We educated our residents over and over what it means. I can honestly only ever remembering being activated a coupe times for a weather emergency. During one of those times a resident actually called the station to tell us the siren was stuck, as we were in the process of being pummeled. People just don't pay attention. So i fully support the phone idea, everyone has one. for christ sakes most people can't ever put them down! edit to say: People who live in the Tornado areas, i'm pretty sure they all know what the he$$ is going on when that siren starts going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 No doubt more people were aware of June 1.. the drumbeat started at least 2 or 3 days in advance for that one. I'm generally against forecasting based off potential as I think the industry (largely the media side) has a tendency to overhype everything these days. But even outside a massive event like this, wind damage is far worse in any year than tornadoes around here. Granted, if for some reason an EF-3 had ripped through DC or something, June 1 would be a different story. In this case I don't think there is a real excuse for not mentioning potential further ahead than it was. I don't know of any forecasting group who mentioned anything of the sort in a public forecast. Sure, people might have ignored it, etc. And if it busted then we'd take some heat for scaring or such. But, forecasts bust all the time so... Thanks for the thoughts. For what it's worth, the word, "tornado" verberated through NJ, after the derecho, being the blame for the 2 children who died and causing the extensive damage. Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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