mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Ian, maybe the NWS wasnt able to really convey it either? I mean there really wasn't a lot on the models to go off of. One run had a squall come through and the next didn't. Hell even in this thread Friday afternoon there was confusion over what was coming. Regardless though, I think the hours of lead time with the watch was sufficient and I had a good half hour or more with my severe warning before what I got actually arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 at least my 450 followers on twitter were prepared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think one conundrum here with regard to earlier lead is what if it did not happen. The signs were clearly there days ahead that someone from our area to SNE would face the potential of a rare event given the pattern and the unusual EML being transported into the area. It is of course easier to say "why did people F up" since it happened. But, I'm sure there are plenty of cases where we saw a similar look and nothing occurred. NWS zone forecasts are just not made to handle this type of event. "Mostly sunny, with a slight chance of storms. Oh, those storms may end up being a giant squall line if it happens but we don't know if it will because we don't necessarily see a trigger." BUT, NWS et al are all into social media etc now. There's no reason they can't use those mediums beforehand to say, hey everyone, just a heads up, this is a volatile pattern. If we end up in a situation where there is a large squall line coming you need to pay extra attention. We actually had a side discussion among several of us with CWG on Thursday night. We did not include a "storm threat index" number. I was nervous about that, but even as someone who saw the potential I was not able to convince myself based on model output that we'd see what we saw when we did. So... I really don't know the answer, but that doesnt mean there is no problem. Pretty much nailed it with this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Wait so it is back to the first disagreement. You see individual, I see region. Would you be ok calling Agnes a benchmark rainstorm for the area even though you may have seen more rain and flooding in your own town several times since? But even region wide, to say this is the first real thunderstorm to meet severe criteria is a little over the top. There have been derechos before or even just squall lines that have produced severe winds, maybe not as strong as Friday but it still happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 But even region wide, to say this is the first real thunderstorm to meet severe criteria is a little over the top. There have been derechos before or even just squall lines that have produced severe winds, maybe not as strong as Friday but it still happened. I think he's saying this is the rare storm where a lot of people see severe weather. MOST severe thunderstorms around here impact only a small area with true (as defined) severe conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 This sort of after-action hand-wringing/blame-assigning is something I unfortunately had to do a few times in the AF. But, the conclusion is usually the same...the burden is on the weather professional to relay EXPLICITLY to the consumer (the public in this case) the danger and impact of a particular event. On the flipside, it's very hard as scientists to ever predict a once-in-a-decade/once-in-a-generation type event, because you will almost always be wrong (see Joe Bastardi for evidence) when you do. Despite the fact that the public has ACCESS to more weather information than ever before, I very much doubt they are any more educated to properly interpret that data. I'd be shocked if more than a tiny percentage of the population would see a line of thunderstorms in Ohio and begin to prepare themselves for widespread hurricane force winds 6 hours later. I'm sure most of them would either think those storms would dissipate long before they reached DC/Balt area or that they'd be "normal" summer thunderstorms. So, I really don't think you can give really any blame to the public/government/power companies. Standard watches/warnings are just generally inadequate for this type of event. The fact that SPC did not even have us in a Slight risk until late in the afternoon and that most forecasts were standard "30% chance of thunderstorms" gave no impression of a historic event. Yes, in the later warnings as the event was unfolding, strong wording was used, but still most of the public does not get that message...particularly since it occurred at 9pm-12am for most of us. Most of the public has little reaction to a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. We get dozens each year. We only get a handful of Winter Storm Warnings and less than one Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning. Common events that most people see little effect from get little response. I think the way to have gotten response on this was to start with the morning news and indicate the potential for unusually widespread severe winds. As things got more imminent with the evening news, the news outlets should have been warning the public of imminent danger. This is all a shoulda/coulda/woulda game, but hopefully it will inform future such events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think he's saying this is the rare storm where a lot of people see severe weather. MOST severe thunderstorms around here impact only a small area with true (as defined) severe conditions. Memorable is a good word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think the way to have gotten response on this was to start with the morning news and indicate the potential for unusually widespread severe winds. As things got more imminent with the evening news, the news outlets should have been warning the public of imminent danger. This is all a shoulda/coulda/woulda game, but hopefully it will inform future such events. I agree, but as you stated before the potential and threat for the metro area didn't exist until after 12 PM EDT. In that instance, it would be the local mets job to cut into programming (cause who really needs to see the 27th rerun of a Golden Girls episode?) once it looked like the storms weren't going to break up and enter the metro region later in the day (say 3 PMish). Unfortunately, more often than not we get false calls and the public just learns to tune the mets out. Tis quite the catch-22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 it would be the local mets job to cut into programming What programming? Who is actually watching live TV anymore? People are playing their Xbox or IMing or watching a DVD movie, or something recorded on their DVR. Or watching internet porn. I didn't have the foggiest idea the event was coming until I saw it on the TV in the gym at around 9PM-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 This is the worst I have seen since Isabel. yeah im sure i just didnt look that hard. i havent ventured more than a few blocks since friday. there was certainly a lot of at least minor damage near the jefferson.. plus rock creek parkway was closed etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 What programming? Who is actually watching live TV anymore? People are playing their Xbox or IMing or watching a DVD movie, or something recorded on their DVR. Or watching internet porn. I didn't have the foggiest idea the event was coming until I saw it on the TV in the gym at around 9PM-ish. Thats why all cell phones should get instant notication of the severe weather threat. just like homes should get a reverse 911 call. It will save lifes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Thats why all cell phones should get instant notication of the severe weather threat. just like homes should get a reverse 911 call. It will save lifes Agreed 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think one conundrum here with regard to earlier lead is what if it did not happen. The signs were clearly there days ahead that someone from our area to SNE would face the potential of a rare event given the pattern and the unusual EML being transported into the area. It is of course easier to say "why did people F up" since it happened. But, I'm sure there are plenty of cases where we saw a similar look and nothing occurred. Can you make a comparison to this with the June 1st ordeal. Do you think more people were made aware of that potential simply because we were dealing with "tornadoes" instead of damaging winds? Personally, I'd rather suggest to the public that there is potential for thunderstorms to produce significant wind damage should they materialize and nothing happens vs. the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Yes. People get over the fact that they were over warned in about 10 seconds. Nothing wrong with being an on-air TV MET Friday Morning and saying something like, "Folks we have a chance for some thunderstorms later today. We aren't sure if they will materalize; but if they do, have the potential to bring unusally strong wind to the area. Please pay attention if you are heading...etc.etc." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Can you make a compare to this with the June 1st ordeal. Do you think more people were made aware of that potential simply because we were dealing with "tornadoes" instead of damaging winds? Personally, I'd rather suggest to the public that there is potential for thunderstorms to produce significant wind damage should they materialize and nothing happens vs. the opposite. No doubt more people were aware of June 1.. the drumbeat started at least 2 or 3 days in advance for that one. I'm generally against forecasting based off potential as I think the industry (largely the media side) has a tendency to overhype everything these days. But even outside a massive event like this, wind damage is far worse in any year than tornadoes around here. Granted, if for some reason an EF-3 had ripped through DC or something, June 1 would be a different story. In this case I don't think there is a real excuse for not mentioning potential further ahead than it was. I don't know of any forecasting group who mentioned anything of the sort in a public forecast. Sure, people might have ignored it, etc. And if it busted then we'd take some heat for scaring or such. But, forecasts bust all the time so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Nothing wrong with being an on-air TV MET Friday Morning and saying something like, "Folks we have a chance for some thunderstorms later today. We aren't sure if they will materalize; but if they do, have the potential to bring unusally strong wind to the area. Please pay attention if you are heading...etc.etc." Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 This is all really good convo.. thx to everyone who's chimed in. I'm mostly done with the piece for CWG but I wasn't quite ready to have it posted today and there are some good thoughts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Agreed 100% not sure about other areas, but in or around the Harrisburg area, many volunteer firehouses have sirens to alert for a call. That siren is also used as a early warning device in the event of a weather emergency and when its activated, sound differently then a normal fire call. The one at our station for a fire call rings 3 times, each lasting 30 seconds. For a weather emergency, it activates and rings soilid for a long time. I have lived across the street from that station almost my entire life as well as serving 30 years there. We educated our residents over and over what it means. I can honestly only ever remembering being activated a coupe times for a weather emergency. During one of those times a resident actually called the station to tell us the siren was stuck, as we were in the process of being pummeled. People just don't pay attention. So i fully support the phone idea, everyone has one. for christ sakes most people can't ever put them down! edit to say: People who live in the Tornado areas, i'm pretty sure they all know what the he$$ is going on when that siren starts going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 No doubt more people were aware of June 1.. the drumbeat started at least 2 or 3 days in advance for that one. I'm generally against forecasting based off potential as I think the industry (largely the media side) has a tendency to overhype everything these days. But even outside a massive event like this, wind damage is far worse in any year than tornadoes around here. Granted, if for some reason an EF-3 had ripped through DC or something, June 1 would be a different story. In this case I don't think there is a real excuse for not mentioning potential further ahead than it was. I don't know of any forecasting group who mentioned anything of the sort in a public forecast. Sure, people might have ignored it, etc. And if it busted then we'd take some heat for scaring or such. But, forecasts bust all the time so... Thanks for the thoughts. For what it's worth, the word, "tornado" verberated through NJ, after the derecho, being the blame for the 2 children who died and causing the extensive damage. Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Thanks to Adam for sending this to me http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 not sure about other areas, but in or around the Harrisburg area, many volunteer firehouses have sirens to alert for a call. That siren is also used as a early warning device in the event of a weather emergency and when its activated, sound differently then a normal fire call. The one at our station for a fire call rings 3 times, each lasting 30 seconds. For a weather emergency, it activates and rings soilid for a long time. I have lived across the street from that station almost my entire life as well as serving 30 years there. We educated our residents over and over what it means. I can honestly only ever remembering being activated a coupe times for a weather emergency. During one of those times a resident actually called the station to tell us the siren was stuck, as we were in the process of being pummeled. People just don't pay attention. So i fully support the phone idea, everyone has one. for christ sakes most people can't ever put them down! edit to say: People who live in the Tornado areas, i'm pretty sure they all know what the he$$ is going on when that siren starts going off. except when they say "well they go off all the time, so I've stopped listening to them" I think I've heard simliar in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I just had a coworker walk into my cube and blame me for them not being prepared on Friday. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Some of this has been touched on but I just wanted to add something. One of the downsides of living in an area where a widespread severe event is quite rare is that we will always be unprepared to some extent when a serious event does happen. Especially with thunderstorms. Even if watches and warnings go up hours in advance. We get alot of watches and a decent amount of warnings but the coverage of the storms is typically quite small in comparison to the listening area. It's easy to get complacent even when warnings go up. This most recent event will stick in everyone's memory for awhile so closer attention will be paid for a while but we'll revert back to not worrying too much a year or two down the road. Severe storms are tough to predict too. Especially ones with the magnitude we just had. I don't blame anybody really. You can't go around yelling lifethreatening storms on the way everytime there appears to be a threat moving in. Sure, it makes sense to look back in the rearview and say "gosh, they should have halted all programming an hour in advance and warned serious risk of loss of life and property damage" but I don't think any of us really expected such a beast. I'm like most on here. I stare at models, radars, loops, met posts, and on and on. I honestly didn't know we we're in BIG trouble until the system cleared the apps/blue ridge. The signature was unmistakeable. But there was only about 30-45 minutes of lead at that point. That sucker was hauling ass. The warnings were serious at that point though. Life threatening, dangerous, widespread damage, take shelter immediately, were all included in the warns. But, even with that kind of warning....do people really expect something so intense with such large coverage? No, not really at all. I'm concerned that the media and nws is going to be trigger happy for a while. Anything and everything that looks kinda scary is going to be headlined. But this will cause alot of false alarms and people will start to ignore threats. I guess my ramblings are mostly trying to say that almost all very anomalous weather events will take us a bit by surprise no matter what. And it's really easy to look back and say we should have and could have done better. I'm glad I'm not a public official or met that is responsible for public awareness. The stress of that job would eat me alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I just had a coworker walk into my cube and blame me for them not being prepared on Friday. SMH Gotta love that. I quit talking weather with my co-workers. I got blamed if it didn't snow or even if it did. Now when people ask me "Hey, is it going to storm"? i say not sure, watch the weather channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 You may or may not, but let me phrase it another way. A greater proportion of the Washington/Baltimore metropolitan region actually saw with their own eyes wind gusts higher than 60 mph in this single event than in any other single event since 1954. So while we may individually see stronger winds at some point,for the region as a whole, this is once-in-a-generation type winds. You said it perfectly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I'm concerned that the media and nws is going to be trigger happy for a while. Anything and everything that looks kinda scary is going to be headlined. But this will cause alot of false alarms and people will start to ignore threats. I guess my ramblings are mostly trying to say that almost all very anomalous weather events will take us a bit by surprise no matter what. And it's really easy to look back and say we should have and could have done better. I'm glad I'm not a public official or met that is responsible for public awareness. The stress of that job would eat me alive. I don't know about the media, but the NWS will certainly not change their process for issuing warnings because of this derecho. It isn't their job to factor in the way people will perceive a warning and they cannot be concerned with things like this at the time they have to make a decision about issuing a warning. If you feel improvement cannot be made in the forecasting process then I am not sure what I can type to convince you otherwise. There are plenty of ways of increasing the percentage of people to say to themselves, "hey I've been out for a good portion of the day, let me see how the weather is evolving because I remember so and so saying...etc." The forecasts leading up the warning time, not the warnings themselves, I thought could use major improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 But even region wide, to say this is the first real thunderstorm to meet severe criteria is a little over the top. There have been derechos before or even just squall lines that have produced severe winds, maybe not as strong as Friday but it still happened. That's not what I said. I said it was the first storm since hazel where such a high percent of the area saw verified STW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 And even if we just use the hard numbers... 71 mph wind gust at IAD and 70 mph gusts at DCA *are* rare events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 except when they say "well they go off all the time, so I've stopped listening to them" I think I've heard simliar in this thread Read the earlier pages (pages 20-30) I think in the Joplin thread over in the general wx forum there's a lot of stories of people saying that. Happens all the time, there will always be people who tune out sirens and warnings and without fail they'll be the ones interviewed saying "I wasn't warned soon enough" I agree that a text-based system would be best, but it would require a significant cellular infrastructure improvement. A text alert on the magnitude of millions will tax the towers and might be delayed enough where the traditional routes may actually be quicker in notifying the public (assuming the infrastructure remains as-is and not improved to be able to handle such a sudden traffic increase). I'll touch on this briefly but during the VT shootings (which I was on campus for) towers were jammed with students and families trying to get in contact with one another. E-mail was slow and text messages wouldn't send for a long time. The text-based system is a good idea going forward but it probably wouldn't be easily implemented in a large metro area imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Read the earlier pages (pages 20-30) I think in the Joplin thread over in the general wx forum there's a lot of stories of people saying that. Happens all the time, there will always be people who tune out sirens and warnings and without fail they'll be the ones interviewed saying "I wasn't warned soon enough" I agree that a text-based system would be best, but it would require a significant cellular infrastructure improvement. A text alert on the magnitude of millions will tax the towers and might be delayed enough where the traditional routes may actually be quicker in notifying the public (assuming the infrastructure remains as-is and not improved to be able to handle such a sudden traffic increase). I'll touch on this briefly but during the VT shootings (which I was on campus for) towers were jammed with students and families trying to get in contact with one another. E-mail was slow and text messages wouldn't send for a long time. The text-based system is a good idea going forward but it probably wouldn't be easily implemented in a large metro area imo Same problems around here during the earthquake. No cell phone calls or texts were able to get through for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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