chris87 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 My main issue with the lack of lead is just how disproportionate our screaming from the rafters is before events. Everyone was all in a tizzy about a tornado event that basically impacted no one other than being scared. Even in a worst case scenario the impacts of June 1 would have been far less. If we're building a weather ready nation is it really a success story that 5 million people lose power, and people die because they didn't know they shouldnt be outside during those 10 minutes, with 6 hours warning? not to mention the financial footprint for this storm will be so much larger...but face it...tornadoes are sexy...derechos aren't.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 My main issue with the lack of lead is just how disproportionate our screaming from the rafters is before events. Everyone was all in a tizzy about a tornado event that basically impacted no one other than being scared. Even in a worst case scenario the impacts of June 1 would have been far less. If we're building a weather ready nation is it really a success story that 5 million people lose power, and people die because they didn't know they shouldnt be outside during those 10 minutes, with 6 hours warning? Absolutely not - its a shame people had to die and so many lost power. Even more so that days later there are still hundreds of thousands without power. But who do you blame for the deaths? NWS/News people for "lacking of warning" or the people themselves for either being out in the storm, or not paying attention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 A citizen has the right to be angry at the power companies for taking forever to get the power back on, yet it also goes hand in hand with being proactive before the storm hits. This goes for county/city governments, power companies, and the average citizen - be proactive! Don't wait unil the damn storm hits before deciding to do something. Again, based on evidence that even tons of tree-trimming didn't decrease the extent of outages, I am not going to blame the power companies for not being able to turn on the lights two days after a once-in-a-generation event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 When there is no forecast of storms in the morning or a 20% chance of them with no indication that there is anything other than a typical summer thunderstorm people are going to tune out especially on a Friday. This event was like 1,000X more damaging than the tornado outbreak at the beginning of the month. I'm actually surprised how people here think the forecasts were good. I agree and this is where I was coming from. When you get this many casualties and injuries, we have to look at ourselves and see where we could have improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 PA for sure has declared ahead of time. I think it helps free up resources prior to the event. like the National gaurd etc. Thanks I know it has been declared ahead of an storm,emergency, etc before. Agreed. Plus this was a Friday night in the summer on a day with temps over 100. Chances are these companies needed to keep their people close due to expected power outages from increased demand. We get severe watches all the time and nobody pays attention, so why would companies line up hundreds of workers and trucks, spending tens of thousands of dollars in resources for such a small chance? I've heard that this was such an rare event because these types of systems rarely make it over the mountains. I can't blame the power companies at all for this. It's amazing that they already have crews here from as far away as Canada, and New Mexico. Im not saying to unload all the other utility company workers, trucks, etc, but a handful would ve been nice in this situation. It would've put a dent in the recovery situation having more hands. I will say this, Chris is right, I dont know what it takes to send a crew down, but if it is a drawn out process then maybe that is something that needs to be looked at. again it was seen that this derecho was going to be pretty bad 4 hours in advance of reaching here. PP&L couldve had a few crews down here ready to take action once it was safe enough for them to go out there. Yes I know, look at the effort to mobilize assets in preparation for a hurricane, it takes days...not hours, that's the point. Im not asking for the whole company to be mobilized like after a hurricane, a handful of crews would be nice to have on the way so when it is clear enough to get out there they were there to help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Ok. So then the average Joe shouldn't get pissed that they didn't get enough advance warning(when they did) because this thing would have damaged as much as it anyways. People(not you) are being stupid and lashing out because they think that in the 21st century power outages should never happen. Well I won't comment on there being advanced warning, because I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree there I'm not sure people are lashing out at the fact that there are power outages, but rather the length of time it is taking to get everyone restored. I don't know all that is required during the restoration process, so I won't comment on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Again, based on evidence that even tons of tree-trimming didn't decrease the extent of outages, I am not going to blame the power companies for not being able to turn on the lights two days after a once-in-a-generation event. You have a link for that tree trimming doenst decrease the outage chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Thanks I know it has been declared ahead of an storm,emergency, etc before. Im not saying to unload all the other utility company workers, trucks, etc, but a handful would ve been nice in this situation. It would've put a dent in the recovery situation having more hands. I will say this, Chris is right, I dont know what it takes to send a crew down, but if it is a drawn out process then maybe that is something that needs to be looked at. again it was seen that this derecho was going to be pretty bad 4 hours in advance of reaching here. PP&L couldve had a few crews down here ready to take action once it was safe enough for them to go out there. Im not asking for the whole company to be mobilized like after a hurricane, a handful of crews would be nice to have on the way so when it is clear enough to get out there they were there to help out. i think the mobilization may have been hampered in this case by the fact that areas from IN to MD were affected so there was probably a shortage of assets to mobilize and how do they get divided up over a larger impact region, case in point that we have crews coming from places like NM and central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 BB's gotta be rakin' it in this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Again, based on evidence that even tons of tree-trimming didn't decrease the extent of outages, I am not going to blame the power companies for not being able to turn on the lights two days after a once-in-a-generation event. This was a once in a generation event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 I agree and this is where I was coming from. When you get this many casualties and injuries, we have to look at ourselves and see where we could have improved. I don't even necessarily think earlier warnings would have changed all that much. Of course on the damage and power end probably nothing at all. It is possible it could have saved a life or two if people really realized what was coming, as well as some lesser property loss that people could have secured/moved indoors. But, that still doesn't address the flaw in the public forecasting methods which almost entirely missed it until it was ongoing. How did a number of people on this board see it ahead of time yet no public forecast even hinted at the possibility? I just don't see how it's OK to have one of the most damaging weather events in any year or over a course of years have a 3-6 hour lead. I sure as hell hope there are NOAA officials etc who agree because if not it's pretty sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Im not saying to unload all the other utility company workers, trucks, etc, but a handful would ve been nice in this situation. It would've put a dent in the recovery situation having more hands. I will say this, Chris is right, I dont know what it takes to send a crew down, but if it is a drawn out process then maybe that is something that needs to be looked at. again it was seen that this derecho was going to be pretty bad 4 hours in advance of reaching here. PP&L couldve had a few crews down here ready to take action once it was safe enough for them to go out there. I'm with you on the whole preparation part of what you were saying. Although, there is a lot of truth to what Andy said about people putting up a fight to save their trees from a maiming by the utilities. However, a large, committed effort to bury the power lines would be nice, but very expensive. A few extra crews would have been nice, but I still don't think it's that reasonable in this situation. Most of the damage is concentrated right around DC. Virginia, Maryland, and WV were overwhelmed by this in every direction and only had a couple of hours of notice. Even then, I don't think anybody could have predicted this kind of devestation around here. Getting a few crews on the road 2 hours earlier from PA would have been good, but I doubt it would have made much of a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 This was a once in a generation event? I would think so given the damage vs. lead time of the event. Even tornado outbreaks in this area produce less damage, and have longer lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I would think so given the damage vs. lead time of the event. Even tornado outbreaks in this area produce less damage, and have longer lead times. It was a serious storm with lots of damage, no doubt about that - but I'm pretty sure it won't be the last derecho I experience in my lifetime. So, "once a generation" is kind of extreme, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I don't even necessarily think earlier warnings would have changed all that much. Of course on the damage and power end probably nothing at all. It is possible it could have saved a life or two if people really realized what was coming, as well as some lesser property loss that people could have secured/moved indoors. But, that still doesn't address the flaw in the public forecasting methods which almost entirely missed it until it was ongoing. How did a number of people on this board see it ahead of time yet no public forecast even hinted at the possibility? I just don't see how it's OK to have one of the most damaging weather events in any year or over a course of years have a 3-6 hour lead. I sure as hell hope there are NOAA officials etc who agree because if not it's pretty sad. Perfectly stated. I also agree on the warning thing and as I said to Chris, I can't comment on that end of things. My whole thing was the lead forecasts which may or may not have influenced perception of the event locally. This forum was well aware of the potential, as you say, so what happened publically and relaying that info? That's what I'm interested in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Well then they arent following the rules then., Blizz of 96, Nj declared a state of emergency a few hours into the storm. Way before it got really bad and incicidents were happening. I know some other states have done the same in other situations. A governor can publicly declare a state of emergency for a major event (for damage and severity reasons) ahead of time, but the process behind the scenes is the same for federal aid. I'm sure by calling the a state of emergency ahead of time can get intra-state agencies mobilized but can't get interstate/federal aid until the process is complete. There's no law as far as i know that states an elected official (in this case the governor) can't publicly call for a state of emergency until after the event has ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It was a serious storm with lots of damage, no doubt about that - but I'm pretty sure it won't be the last derecho I experience in my lifetime. So, "once a generation" is kind of extreme, no? It's subjective no doubt, and I'll defer to those who have lived in this area longer than I have (4 years). This was my first derecho that I can recall. My point was that this was unique in that we saw hurricane type damage from what most people would consider to be a strong thunderstorm. At least with a hurricane there is lots of lead time whereas there was comparatively little in this case. Again, I suppose the term is subjective, depending on how dramatic one would like to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 because i'm not overly familiar with all of your areas, in PA, most of the fire Dept are volunteers and are relied on heavily. When a storm hits (any season) much of the mess ( trees across raodways etc etc) is cleaned up by them. They spend countless hours assting. Is that common in your areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It was a serious storm with lots of damage, no doubt about that - but I'm pretty sure it won't be the last derecho I experience in my lifetime. So, "once a generation" is kind of extreme, no? FInd another windstorm since Hurricane Hazel that produced as widespread 65+mph recorded winds across the region. Sure, other thunderstorms were more severe in particular given locations, but there hasn't been this significant of a wind-event for the entire region since Hazel. That the three airports all reported around 70 mph peak gust shows how completely unusual this event was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It's subjective no doubt, and I'll defer to those who have lived in this area longer than I have (4 years). This was my first derecho that I can recall. My point was that this was unique in that we saw hurricane type damage from what most people would consider to be a strong thunderstorm. At least with a hurricane there is lots of lead time whereas there was comparatively little in this case. Again, I suppose the term is subjective, depending on how dramatic one would like to be My point exactly in Virginia it was the largest non-hurricane-related power outage in the state's history and I think it was the 3rd largest of all time. So we can safely say those who went through this will never go though it again? I mean that would make it a once in a generative event, no? FInd another windstorm since Hurricane Hazel that produced as widespread 65+mph recorded winds across the region. Sure, other thunderstorms were more severe in particular given locations, but there hasn't been this significant of a wind-event for the entire region since Hazel. That the three airports all reported around 70 mph peak gust shows how completely unusual this event was. So I will never experience it again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 You have a link for that tree trimming doenst decrease the outage chances? Of course it does in lesser events, but as wxtrix pointed out, trees weren't really the primary issue here for a grid-wide result like what happened in MoCo, MD. Power went out for more than 2/3 of all residents, and we were driving past entire swaths of tree-trimmed roads that were completely dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It's subjective no doubt, and I'll defer to those who have lived in this area longer than I have (4 years). This was my first derecho that I can recall. My point was that this was unique in that we saw hurricane type damage from what most people would consider to be a strong thunderstorm. At least with a hurricane there is lots of lead time whereas there was comparatively little in this case. Again, I suppose the term is subjective, depending on how dramatic one would like to be Does June 2008 count as a derecho or was that just a squall line? Wind wise, that was must worse up here than this past Fri night. Around 70 mph in Frederick and 90 mph gust in Washington County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 because i'm not overly familiar with all of your areas, in PA, most of the fire Dept are volunteers and are relied on heavily. When a storm hits (any season) much of the mess ( trees across raodways etc etc) is cleaned up by them. They spend countless hours assting. Is that common in your areas? It depends on the area. Some counties are all career, all volunteer, or mixed. In my county it is mixed but it relies heavily on volunteers when storms happen. Both the fire department and the public works clear the roads around my county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 My point exactly So we can safely say those who went through this will never go though it again? I mean that would make it a once in a generative event, no? So I will never experience it again? It's semantics, but "generation" is usually meant to refer to a ~25 year period. If Trixie's stats are correct, then this would seem to apply to that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It's semantics, but "generation" is usually meant to refer to a ~25 year period. If Trixie's stats are correct, then this would seem to apply to that timeframe. so then say a once in a 25 year event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 My point exactly So we can safely say those who went through this will never go though it again? I mean that would make it a once in a generative event, no? So I will never experience it again? You may or may not, but let me phrase it another way. A greater proportion of the Washington/Baltimore metropolitan region actually saw with their own eyes wind gusts higher than 60 mph in this single event than in any other single event since 1954. So while we may individually see stronger winds at some point,for the region as a whole, this is once-in-a-generation type winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 out here it's the city that cleans up the debris. we've already been told to just leave all of the downed branches curbside and that the city will get to them when it can. neither the city nor the fire department here can handle the hundreds of trees down so we have assistance in from other states to take down trees and clear away that debris. Last year, due to all the weather, (Tornado, Hurricane Irene and the major flooding) My local volunteer Fire Co handled several hundred non-Emergency incidents storm related. They would just go down the street from one end to the next cutting trees to get the roadways open. Putting the wood on the curbs. I wish everyone well who has been affected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Does June 2008 count as a derecho or was that just a squall line? Wind wise, that was must worse up here than this past Fri night. Around 70 mph in Frederick and 90 mph gust in Washington County. That was about 2 weeks after I moved to MD and I was living in MontCo at the time, so I couldn't really say. I found this, "By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 so then say a once in a 25 year event That just isn't as sexy of a term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 so then say a once in a 25 year event i always use this little trick to calculate the time period for a "generational" event...i subtract my parent's age from my age to compute a generation...j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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