Late June 2012 storms

[chris87]

Most of the time in situations like these, I am quick to defend the SPC. I find myself usually arguing in their defense when they take criticism. However, this will be the first time in a long time I have to say that their forecasting wasn't sufficient at relaying the potential severity of the situation (despite the uncertainty).

There was hardly a mention of anything in the days proceeding Friday and understandably so and I don't take issue with that ...even at day 2 1730z (which was basically useless). The issues I have are mainly at 1630z with the SLT boundary stopping before DCA. With the uncertainty on the evolution of the elevated complex from IL, the speed of the complex was in question so they believed the arrival of anything east of the mountains would come when instability would relax late at night. However, there was strong indication that the environment would stay unstable and some type of complex from the Midwest would intensify, become surface-based and accelerate (all of this was known before 1630z). I would have introduced a SLT to the coast and introduced a moderate risk then, indicating that the environment was suitable for a derecho but that there was still uncertainty.

Where were the PDS severe thunderstorm watches? I think a rare high risk for damaging wind was also in order here (perhaps for 20z outlook) although that is beyond my thoughts in this post.

Very true, even if the outlook was never upgraded, the ST Watch could have been updated to a PDS watch...also, I've seen on rare occasions that WFOs will issue tornado warnings for significant derecho events (with history of significant damage), but I think that is more prevalent in areas where sirens can be sounded to alert the public, not sure it would have made much difference here.

[CheesyPoofs]

There was information out there, but some people (and this is not a jab at Trixie or any one else here) who didn't bother to listen really cannot use being unprepared as their excuse. That's my issue and where my frustration comes from.

Its like any other event where people whine about not having any warning and blame the NWS and the news people. While yes, SPC didn't exactly do a great job forecasting this, how many people actually go to SPC for info? I thought the watch hours in advanced was good enough. And there was definitely strong wording in the warnings that were issued with a lot of lead time associated with them.

This is another prime example where there needs to be betters means at issuing watches/warnings and other important weather information to people. Social media, texts, etc... I sent as many messages as I could to people giving them the heads up but obviously not everyone is a weather dork like me and I understand that.

The blame game is frustrating as well as the media latching onto the word "hurricane" and using that to make their case about inadequate warning. Its frustrating.

Other than the initial severe thunderstorm watch issued at 6:30, what other info was out there? I wasn't even under a watch until 9:15 when they extended it...by 10:30 my power began flickering, and by 10:55, it was completely gone. As I said yesterday, as late at 7PM (after the watch was issued), people on here were questioning whether or not we'd see anything significant. It was also a Friday night, so many people likely had plans/were out.

The warnings had strong wording, yes, but if you are at a get-together, at dinner, the movies, etc. there isn't much you can do when a warning is issued and the storms are at your door 25 minutes later. Heck, even if you are home doing nothing, there isn't much you can do, especially since the common person didn't have any reason to worry about anything as late as 7PM.

And interesting that HM brings up the PDS watches. I was thinking that yesterday -- in hindsight, a PDS watch was likely the way to go. If someone hears "This is a particularly dangerous situation," perhaps watch/warning fatigue could be overcome? I know they are very rare in the Mid-Atlantic/NE -- I don't think I've ever been under one.

[mappy]

I see I am in the minority here, so I'll stop. Hope those withy power get it back soon

[HM]

But what normal person knows what a PDS watch means? I agree SPC did terrible at forecasting it, but again not many people actually pay attention to SPC specifically.

It's a perception thing and information sharing thing. The people that do know and alert the public would naturally be more excited if they saw enhanced worded products and would strongly relay the potential. Having these things known with the 1630z outlook would have also increased the time to get the word out.

There was a cool blog entry written by Doswell about this sort of thing and he basically argues that it isn't the meteorologist's job to deal with how a person interprets warnings / forecasts etc. He says to leave that to sociologists, lol. So I definitely understand this viewpoint and I guess I agree with him on that and that changing our conventional warnings would be a waste of time.

But my issue isn't with the warnings. My issue was with the perception of the event which could have been drilled into everyone's heads hours beforehand.

[CheesyPoofs]

But what normal person knows what a PDS watch means? I agree SPC did terrible at forecasting it, but again not many people actually pay attention to SPC specifically.

I'm sure the media would have stressed the severity of the situation more if it was a PDS watch. Plus just hearing "particularly dangerous situation," likely would have alarmed a few more people.

[catoctin wx]

BS. Awatch was issued at 630, during news hours, any person with a tv watching a major news station would have seen the watch. Any weather person during their news section would have mentioned it, the watch, would have shown radar. I saw it, my family saw it, neighbors saw it where I was.

Saying there was no warning and people were unprepared is a piss poor excuse.

I am embarrassed to say that I had no idea this was coming We went out to a winery at about 5 pm with friends where there wasn't a tv or anything. We don't have smart phones, so we didn't check the weather. When we left we saw a bunch of lightning, but I didn't know until the next morning that a derecho had come through and that there was a bunch of damage. In Frederick it was a run-of-the-mill thunderstorm with way above average lightning.

[North Balti Zen]

Fwiw, as I have mentioned a few times, I was at Camden Friday night with friends. It took all I had to talk them into leaving by the end of the 7th. They had no awareness heading to the game that there was the chance for anything remotely serious...what finally got them moving was when LWX put out the one statement about taking cover to protect life and property - which I read to them. That, plus the radar I showed them, plus the reports coming in from Ohio and WVa was enough to get them to leave.

But if I was not an actice lurker on this board, if this thread had not been what it was, I would not have been able to talk them into the seriousness of the situation.

I think it is fair to say that the potential seriousness of the situation was not properly conveyed to enough of the public to put people on whatever notice they needed to be on. Not sure that is anyone's "fault" per se. Like I said, LWX helped me a ton with their wording as we passed 9:00 pm.

I don't know how the Balt and DC on-air mets handled this. Were they on the air in the 10:00 pm hour with warning about the potential seriousness of what was coming? I have no clue as I was not home.

For what it's worth.

[Avdave]

I see I am in the minority here, so I'll stop. Hope those withy power get it back soon

Actually I agree with you on your points. How much time does one need. If the watches were being issued avt 6/630pm Fri night, how much time do you need to get to the store and grab a few extra items? With todays media outlets, social media, most people shouldve known what was coming. Now sure the common folk isnt going to look at radar at 330pm and say wow, this is going to be a disaster for us. This isnt like it is 1975 where all there was the local affiliates on TV and a radio. Today with people owning wx radios, apps on smart phones, social media, cable, etc most of the population wouldve had enough time to gather the stuff they need. If you need more than 4 hours to get prepared, then something doesnt add up.

Sure SPC couldve done a better job relaying the information to the right people in the business but even then, it is difficult to nail down a derecho like Fri night.

[Avdave]

I was listening to a WBALs radio station (Baltimore) this morning and a woman called in and said it was not a typical thunderstorm, it was an un-named hurricane, no ifs ands or buts about it. People are stupid.

Was it Baltimorewxguy?

[HM]

Very true, even if the outlook was never upgraded, the ST Watch could have been updated to a PDS watch...also, I've seen on rare occasions that WFOs will issue tornado warnings for significant derecho events (with history of significant damage), but I think that is more prevalent in areas where sirens can be sounded to alert the public, not sure it would have made much difference here.

I have also seen where WFOs issue tornado warnings for non-tornadic situations. I cannot comment on the warning-end of things and I'll leave that up to you guys in the area to be the judge. The timing of this event was crappy and definitely the situation on the forecasting-end was crappy. In the end, I think a better worded potential (to stress severity) with some lead time would have been most beneficial.

[Stebo]

Most of the time in situations like these, I am quick to defend the SPC. I find myself usually arguing in their defense when they take criticism. However, this will be the first time in a long time I have to say that their forecasting wasn't sufficient at relaying the potential severity of the situation (despite the uncertainty).

There was hardly a mention of anything in the days proceeding Friday and understandably so and I don't take issue with that ...even at day 2 1730z (which was basically useless). The issues I have are mainly at 1630z with the SLT boundary stopping before DCA. With the uncertainty on the evolution of the elevated complex from IL, the speed of the complex was in question so they believed the arrival of anything east of the mountains would come when instability would relax late at night. However, there was strong indication that the environment would stay unstable and some type of complex from the Midwest would intensify, become surface-based and accelerate (all of this was known before 1630z). I would have introduced a SLT to the coast and introduced a moderate risk then, indicating that the environment was suitable for a derecho but that there was still uncertainty.

Where were the PDS severe thunderstorm watches? I think a rare high risk for damaging wind was also in order here (perhaps for 20z outlook) although that is beyond my thoughts in this post.

100% agree with this, the big hang up would be with the lack of PDS severe watches especially considering the widespread reports and significance of them as it was going through IL/OH.

[gymengineer]

Actually I agree with you on your points. How much time does one need. If the watches were being issued avt 6/630pm Fri night, how much time do you need to get to the store and grab a few extra items? With todays media outlets, social media, most people shouldve known what was coming. Now sure the common folk isnt going to look at radar at 330pm and say wow, this is going to be a disaster for us. This isnt like it is 1975 where all there was the local affiliates on TV and a radio. Today with people owning wx radios, apps on smart phones, social media, cable, etc most of the population wouldve had enough time to gather the stuff they need. If you need more than 4 hours to get prepared, then something doesnt add up.

Sure SPC couldve done a better job relaying the information to the right people in the business but even then, it is difficult to nail down a derecho like Fri night.

Have you been hearing much frustration from people that they themselves didn't go out and get batteries or didn't have time to take shelter? That's not what I've been reading-- it seems the bulk of the frustration is with the power companies and local governments not having been ready to deal with a region-wide outage on the scale of Isabel. That's what I think is kind of an unreasonable expectation, given the lead times.

[Derecho!]

Yup, nice post. And appropriate username as well for the discussion.

Oddly enough I've had the username through an infinity of weather boards and chat rooms going back more than a decade - back then everyone was "weatherdude" and hurricaneguy" and I deliberately chose a then-obscure weather term as a goof.

[chris87]

Have you been hearing much frustration from people that they themselves didn't go out and get batteries or didn't have time to take shelter? That's not what I've been reading-- it seems the bulk of the frustration is with the power companies and local governments not having been ready to deal with a region-wide outage on the scale of Isabel. That's what I think is kind of an unreasonable expectation, given the lead times.

totally agree, i'm baffled by the expectations...outside of people being angry, what could the power companies or government done better given a lead time of a few hours?

[CheesyPoofs]

Actually I agree with you on your points. How much time does one need. If the watches were being issued avt 6/630pm Fri night, how much time do you need to get to the store and grab a few extra items? With todays media outlets, social media, most people shouldve known what was coming. Now sure the common folk isnt going to look at radar at 330pm and say wow, this is going to be a disaster for us. This isnt like it is 1975 where all there was the local affiliates on TV and a radio. Today with people owning wx radios, apps on smart phones, social media, cable, etc most of the population wouldve had enough time to gather the stuff they need. If you need more than 4 hours to get prepared, then something doesnt add up.

Sure SPC couldve done a better job relaying the information to the right people in the business but even then, it is difficult to nail down a derecho like Fri night.

At the risk of sounding repetitive , I don't think you can really expect the average Joe to look at radar. I don't know many people that own wx radios (ok, I don't know anyone who does ), and people had no reason to look at any weather apps on their smart phones because there was never any indication that there was a need to "keep an eye to the sky" or monitor latest forecasts. I think saying there were four hours is being really, really, really, generous. Yeah, a watch was issued at 6:30, but if you ran to the store just because a watch was issued, well, you'd be running to the store quite often.

[CheesyPoofs]

totally agree, i'm baffled by the expectations...outside of people being angry, what could the power companies or government done better given a lead time of a few hours?

Yeah. Even with a few more hours of lead time, the only thing one could have done was gone to the store to get a few items , move some things inside, and cancel their evening plans. The power still would have gone out regardless, trees still would have fallen down, etc.

[HM]

100% agree with this, the big hang up would be with the lack of PDS severe watches especially considering the widespread reports and significance of them as it was going through IL/OH.

Good point. Once the uncertain becomes certain, I think we can safely become aggressive in our wording and products.

[Avdave]

Have you been hearing much frustration from people that they themselves didn't go out and get batteries or didn't have time to take shelter? That's not what I've been reading-- it seems the bulk of the frustration is with the power companies and local governments not having been ready to deal with a region-wide outage on the scale of Isabel. That's what I think is kind of an unreasonable expectation, given the lead times.

Some stories are out there that people were surprised by it all, so yes Ive been hearing stories. As for the power companies, well they just suck in general no matter what the situation is. If they got plenty of warning they would find another excuse as to why they werent ready for the event. I wont even get into the govt situation, Lets keep politics out of this conversation. The power companies still had 4-5 hours to get ready for this event and they still failed. I have no faith in utility companies, they will ALWAYS have an excuse as to why they werent prepared

[HM]

Oddly enough I've had the username through an infinity of weather boards and chat rooms going back more than a decade - back then everyone was "weatherdude" and hurricaneguy" and I deliberately chose a then-obscure weather term as a goof.

I can vouch for that. I've been coming to these wx forums for over a decade and there are some names that have remained a staple...your's being one of them.

[mappy]

Yeah. Even with a few more hours of lead time, the only thing one could have done was gone to the store to get a few items , move some things inside, and cancel their evening plans. The power still would have gone out regardless, trees still would have fallen down, etc.

Not once did I say trees shouldnt have fallen or power not gone out.

[CheesyPoofs]

I can vouch for that. I've been coming to these wx forums for over a decade and there are some names that have remained a staple...your's being one of them.

Yeah, as have I, and I remember the username. I think there may be two Derecho's though, as the username that I recall from WWBB/Eastern didn't have an exclamation mark at the end (though perhaps I don't remember correctly since it's been a while, ha).

[Avdave]

At the risk of sounding repetitive , I don't think you can really expect the average Joe to look at radar. I don't know many people that own wx radios (ok, I don't know anyone who does ), and people had no reason to look at any weather apps on their smart phones because there was never any indication that there was a need to "keep an eye to the sky" or monitor latest forecasts. I think saying there were four hours is being really, really, really, generous. Yeah, a watch was issued at 6:30, but if you ran to the store just because a watch was issued, well, you'd be running to the store quite often.

I know most people dont look at radar but come on people are home eating dinner at 600pm and watching the news and no one took what they (mets) were saying on Tv seriously. Then shame on the people. and how can you say there was no reason to look at the radar upstream? It was talked about the potential for a few hours during the day on Friday. If people need to run to the store for every watch then something is wrong there. I mean seriously, how much stuff do you really need? This isnt Oklahoma. People just get complacent and just think oh we may get a thunderstorm, no biggie. Then they have no one to blame but themselves. Arent we supposed to be prepared for emergencies at all times just in case?

[Avdave]

Road closures.Traffic lights still out in the area as of 5am this morning

--Route 123/International Drive

--Route 7/Beulah

--Route 50/Gallows Road

--Route 50/Nutley Street

--West Ox Road/Fair Lakes Parkway

--Route 1/Telegraph Road

--Lorton Road/I-95

--Hummer Road/Gallows Road

--Fort Hunt/Belle Haven

--Baron Cameron/Fairfax County Parkway

--Reston Parkway/Lawyers Road

--Route 50/Stringfellow Road

[H2O]

I see I am in the minority here, so I'll stop. Hope those withy power get it back soon

Nope. I agree with you. People saying they were caught unprepared is crud. What trixie said about warning fatigue is the point I made yesterday with Ian. People I think are choosing to pay attention occasionally instead of really reading and noting how different this one was. The wording was there saying that winds were beyond ridiculous with this system.

There was plenty of notice given beforehand.

[mappy]

Some stories are out there that people were surprised by it all, so yes Ive been hearing stories. As for the power companies, well they just suck in general no matter what the situation is. If they got plenty of warning they would find another excuse as to why they werent ready for the event. I wont even get into the govt situation, Lets keep politics out of this conversation. The power companies still had 4-5 hours to get ready for this event and they still failed. I have no faith in utility companies, they will ALWAYS have an excuse as to why they werent prepared

Agreed x a million

A lot my frustration comes from those who are putting blame elsewhere when they only have themselves to blame. People weren't paying attention, officials weren't paying attention and therefore were caught off guard and hence were unprepared. It has nothing to do with not enough warning, lead time, heads up, etc. That was all there.

[Derecho!]

I'm the same Derecho from WWBB/Eastern - I was really busy when Americanwx went on-line and didn't log in for months - found that plain Derecho had been taken (by a pro met?) who I never see post.

[Avdave]

Nope. I agree with you. People saying they were caught unprepared is crud. What trixie said about warning fatigue is the point I made yesterday with Ian. People I think are choosing to pay attention occasionally instead of really reading and noting how different this one was. The wording was there saying that winds were beyond ridiculous with this system.

There was plenty of notice given beforehand.

but but but the poor utility companies and local gvts didnt have enough time to prepare for this

[dan11295]

On the power side of things, as I mentioned above, this wasn't a hurricane where you could pre-position crews from outside the impact area. Only so much a power company can do in that situation.

As far as warning for the event itself, long lead time forecasts for derechos are somewhat difficult as their spatial coverage, longevity, path path can be hard to pin down. Perhaps SPC could have had a High Risk for wind, triggering PDS SVR T-Storm Watches. Thats about the only thing they could have done which would have had any impact on the public. Even then the public generally ignores Severe Thunderstorm Watches. With the warnings, this of course was different then a "normal" severe storm, where only a small portion of the area gets the storm. The warning that Trix showed on the last page doesn't strike me as having any special wording. Really need wording about a "widespread event" at the minimum at least I would think.

[CheesyPoofs]

Not once did I say trees shouldnt have fallen or power not gone out.

I know -- I wasn't saying you or anyone else here said that. I was just saying that there is only so much you can do in such a severe weather situation, even if you have an extra 2-3 hours to prepare (unlike a hurricane or major winter storm).

[Derecho!]

the solution is to fix the entire electrical infrastructure of above ground electric lines, but that's not feasible. and even underground power lines aren't infallible--indeed, the power came back to our above ground power line house in Martinsburg 21 hours before it did to our below ground power line house in Jefferson County.

I'm baffled by the long outages in areas with below ground power and major infrastructure, that have been built fairly recently - my place of work (without power) is a new 11 story office building in the Mark Center.