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Late June 2012 storms


Ian

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power just came back on here in my part of Silver Spring...i think we won some sort of pepco lottery...seeing that the numbers of outages has only slightly decreased this afternoon

At 229,334 for MoCo between PEPCO BGE and Alleghney Power. All three of which service MoCo. The next highest numbers are Prince Georges with 182,000 and Baltimore County with 130,000.

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mcd1321.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0327 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 302027Z - 302300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITHIN A HOT/DEEPLY-MIXED AIR

MASS FROM PARTS OF ERN KY TO WRN VA. ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW

CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE...POTENTIAL FOR CLUSTERING AMIDST MODERATE TO

STRONG DEEP-LAYER W/NWLYS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND EVENTS THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...GROWING CU WAS NOTED FROM ERN KY TO WRN VA IN RECENT

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITHIN A HOT AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY

SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 102. ALTHOUGH

SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE LARGELY MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE

60S...MODIFIED 18Z IAD RAOB AND PREVIOUS GENERATION RUC VERSION OF

SFCOA WOULD SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2500 J/KG.

DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WAS STRONG IN THE 18Z IAD RAOB IN ASSOCIATION

WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PROGRESSING ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ. ALTHOUGH FLOW

WEAKENS SOMEWHAT WITH SLY EXTENT...IT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR

ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES...CONGLOMERATION OF COLD POOLS SHOULD FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH

INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS. PRIMARY RISK WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING

WINDS.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON/HART.. 06/30/2012

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON 37468258 37508140 37848033 38787896 39437812 39477760

39317715 39097699 38537707 37067818 36297895 36087998

36098102 36218174 36568229 36908281 37468258

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On my count BGE has added customers on average of 2500 customers an hour. There is currently 400,000 customers out. Do the math.. *facepalm*

took them days after irene to get the bulk of customers back up and running

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Would agree with 30-50 per cent risk of severe storms but region may be somewhat shifted north to include se PA. Probably not a derecho event this time, more likely to be frontal wave development starting in s/c OH and rippling east across n WV and MD. Will post any updates to this concept as I watch developments. Some chance of a total non-event also, or just non-severe storms.

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Unless trajectory changes probably more a threat down in RIC, should go south of DC.

Tomorrow should end up a bit south of progged and be good for DC metro. Tonight, still think it dips through C VA but maybe it continues a bit more east of SE.

I'd be feel pretty good if I was in RIC-Fredericksburg, but looks like we'll be just too far, barely.

It looks like, unless we can get some stronger development on the northern end, the main core of the derecho will barely miss DC:

post-96-0-80953400-1341007146_thumb.png

I'm going to be livid when the best derecho in ages missing DC by 30 miles to the south.

Still say the brunt of it goes just SW of Richmond tonight. Think it's make a sharp right turn.

New storms popping up as the hi-res models had predicted in PA... looking forward to that as consolation for missing the main derecho.

Hard to believe it's weakening with such instability, think it's just the mountains.

oops :whistle:

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The derecho was interesting in that the nrn end ended up stronger and nailed DC. Usually, the southern and southwest ends tap into the deeper instability and remain strongest as they turn right with time. I wonder if that MCV on the nrn end allowed for a strong low to mid level jet to punch into this nrn line and sustain it better.

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mcd1321.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0327 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 302027Z - 302300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITHIN A HOT/DEEPLY-MIXED AIR

MASS FROM PARTS OF ERN KY TO WRN VA. ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW

CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE...POTENTIAL FOR CLUSTERING AMIDST MODERATE TO

STRONG DEEP-LAYER W/NWLYS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND EVENTS THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...GROWING CU WAS NOTED FROM ERN KY TO WRN VA IN RECENT

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITHIN A HOT AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY

SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 102. ALTHOUGH

SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE LARGELY MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE

60S...MODIFIED 18Z IAD RAOB AND PREVIOUS GENERATION RUC VERSION OF

SFCOA WOULD SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2500 J/KG.

DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WAS STRONG IN THE 18Z IAD RAOB IN ASSOCIATION

WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PROGRESSING ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ. ALTHOUGH FLOW

WEAKENS SOMEWHAT WITH SLY EXTENT...IT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR

ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES...CONGLOMERATION OF COLD POOLS SHOULD FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH

INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS. PRIMARY RISK WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING

WINDS.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON/HART.. 06/30/2012

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON 37468258 37508140 37848033 38787896 39437812 39477760

39317715 39097699 38537707 37067818 36297895 36087998

36098102 36218174 36568229 36908281 37468258

The rubber band response to a partially busted forecast. I'll call bust right now.

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Seems like all the local TDWRs are having problems updating on wunderground as well...

Severe Thunderstorm warning just went up in central VA.

I think everyone around here is just having network issues - probably having issues with power/generators and such.

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Still without power. Since I dont really have access to any radars and such, is there anything to the west of Roanoke that could possibly affect the area? Id look myself, but like I said, no power and my phone won't do radars..

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Still without power. Since I dont really have access to any radars and such, is there anything to the west of Roanoke that could possibly affect the area? Id look myself, but like I said, no power and my phone won't do radars..

Radars are having update problems. I am not receiving any radar data from AlisonHouse, NWS pages are not loading or out of date and even Wunderground has been spotty.

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Radars are having update problems. I am not receiving any radar data from AlisonHouse, NWS pages are not loading or out of date and even Wunderground has been spotty.

Ah, that's no good. I hate having no access to what's coming my way; Makes me feel uninformed. Once everything gets back up and going, send me an update my way.
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The rubber band response to a partially busted forecast. I'll call bust right now.

yeah maybe, i dont think today is happening locally but there's stuff way west still.

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