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Late June 2012 storms


Ian

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This might rank up there with some of the benchmark derechoes in cost/size/strength.

yeah seems that way. it's gotta be up there on power outages at least tho that always goes back to our infrastructure ailing as well.

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yeah seems that way. it's gotta be up there on power outages at least tho that always goes back to our infrastructure ailing as well.

Easily with respect to power outages. Isn't it like 2.5 mill in the DC and Baltimore metro areas alone? Then you add in Western VA/WV/OH/IN there is probably 3 to 4 million people without power right now.

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yeah seems that way. it's gotta be up there on power outages at least tho that always goes back to our infrastructure ailing as well.

Even just for our region, this was super impressive: Number two for power outages, behind Isabel (for comparison, Isabel was more than 5/7 of Pepco customers out.. this one was close, around 4/7).

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Sitting in the A/C at the in-laws' in South Carolina. Not happy about leaving a half-full fridge with no power at 1:30 am, but we needed to get on the road. Nothing too nasty left behind, though. Hopefully the power comes back on soon and we can get back to only semi-rancid refrozen food. Gives us a reason to clean out the fridge, I guess.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1107 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... 12Z KIAD ROAB INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA HAS DRIED OUT A LITTLE IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS RECOVERY IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA. MODIFIED 12Z RAOB INDICATES AT LEAST 4000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION TO BEING LOADED WITH INSTABILITY...THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR /AT LEAST 40 KT 0-6KM SHEAR/. AS FAR AS LIFTING MECHANISMS...THERE IS A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE APPEARS TO BE THE IMPULSE/MCV OVER OHIO. SHOWERS WERE WANING WITH THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID- AFTERNOON POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-ARW AND HRRR. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THIS ORGANIZATION TAKES ON THE FORM OF A BOWING MCS. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT EVOLUTION AND TIMING BUT IF THIS MCS DEVELOPS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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last night i posted on twitter how poorly forecast this was by most people. bob ryan sent me a dm that he strongly disagreed and he was mentioning derecho at 6 p.m.

i mean, come on...

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last night i posted on twitter how poorly forecast this was by most people. bob ryan sent me a dm that he strongly disagreed and he was mentioning derecho at 6 p.m.

i mean, come on...

To SPC's credit, as soon as they saw the development in IN they were on top of it and upgraded. And Washington Post, also to their credit, was using strong language throughout the afternoon.

But still..

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To SPC's credit, as soon as they saw the development in IN they were on top of it and upgraded. And Washington Post, also to their credit, was using strong language throughout the afternoon.

But still..

i dont think anyone could have realistically had major confidence before it got going but i know lwx was only mentioning morning storms as of the night before and there was little or any mention that should something fire up it could be quite bad. anyone who looked at what the short term models were pumping out ingredients wise should have at least taken note. there's a general over reliance on surface qpf fields even though we hear all the time not to take them as gospel.

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last night i posted on twitter how poorly forecast this was by most people. bob ryan sent me a dm that he strongly disagreed and he was mentioning derecho at 6 p.m.

i mean, come on...

Weren't high-res models showing derecho-type potential fairly early yesterday? If so, it amazes me that the pros wouldn't have picked up on it.

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Have there ever been back to back derechos for one area before? (as in on consecutive days?)

i believe so. the pattern is not terribly frequent but when it happens it tends to set up for a few days. may be more prevalent to the west than here. it's pretty hard to get back to back big svr here just by personal memory.

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Accuweather calling it a Super Derecho.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/deadly-super-derecho-strikes-m/67383

Also makes mention of the May 8th 2009 one that hit here.

Food in the fridge is typically good for 4-8 hours at most. In the freezer it can be good for 1-2 days and you can refreeze it if it still has ice crystals.

13z HRRR has a bow echo looking thing to the NW of DC at 21z. We'll see.

2012-06-30_110826.jpg

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Kind of early for beer, but cracked open first one of the day, as room is needed in the cooler for other perishables. Was only able to salvage a bottle of Grey Goose from the freezers.

Heavy traffic volume on the roads, as peeps try to deal with lack of traffic lights. Home Depot picked over in the battery and portable power areas.

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we're not recovering spectacularly thus far though there isnt a shortage of what's needed for severe weather either. i certainly would not expect something as bad.. but we could definitely still get a large squall line through a smaller area.

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yup, still no power. The multiple days without estimate sounds about right in my neighborhood. Feel bad for Clementine's (one of top restaurants in balt city on most lists)...I live within a few houses of them and between them and their really cool new farm-to-market corner store, they are working frantically to save a LOT of food.

Updates from you all throughout the day on any developing line of storms again will be much appreciated.

Thanks to everyone for this thread last night, let me move friends away from Os game at right time to get them home safely.

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Much sympathy to those without power. We were clearly out of the worst up here. Still, impressive wind, swaying trees, heavy rain, constant lightning and thunder. Looked tropical storm-esque. My neighborhood tends to lose power at the drop of a hat, but amazingly, other than a < one minute loss, we kept it. I feel VERY lucky. Otoh, band practice in Univ. Park today is canceled...or acoustic...I'm voting canceled. Hoping you all get your power back soon.

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