TUweathermanDD Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Bummer Don't worry I feel like it won't be exactly right at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Bummer Details are unimportant. Look at the NAM for right now on previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Don't worry I feel like it won't be exactly right at this stage. Eh, don't sweat it. That run of the NAM is on it's own at this point. I just figured I'd post about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I'm in Pittsburgh right now...kinda hopeful for some good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Currently, 11 STWs on the complex blowing through Ohio. Looks like it will pass south od DC, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 It looks like, unless we can get some stronger development on the northern end, the main core of the derecho will barely miss DC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 It looks like, unless we can get some stronger development on the northern end, the main core of the derecho will barely miss DC: I may be too far south for much unless the southern edge decides to become more robust. I'd like to be a few counties north of Roanoke right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 It's amazing now fast these things move. I want the tornado warned part anyway. Will be close it seems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 It's amazing now fast these things move. I want the tornado warned part anyway. Will be close it seems.. Hope you guys down there see something, I think I am out of it this far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OH/NRN KY/WV/SWRN PA/WRN MD/MUCH OF VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436... VALID 292203Z - 292330Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING DERECHO. DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED/INTENSE BOWING ARC OF STORMS MOVING ESEWD AT 50 KT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OH ATTM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AS WELL AS OBSERVED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOW 100S IN MANY LOCATIONS...EXPECT THE DERECHO TO CONTINUE -- CROSSING THE OH VALLEY AND MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. EXPECT THAT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO VA/MD THIS EVENING...GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THUS...NEW WW DOWNSTREAM OF WATCH 436 WILL BE ISSUED WHICH WILL EXTEND EWD TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ..GOSS.. 06/29/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Woo storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Woo storms This phrase has replaced your mehing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 This phrase has replaced your mehing I stole it from Mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 It's gonna be close imb. There has been a tendancy for little cells to keep popping just in front of the northern bow. And there has been what looks like alot of hail in that section as well. Should be plenty strong to make it over the apps. I will remain optimistic until I must become pessimistic. The cells popping just north of wheeling on the last couple frames keep me optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 More northern development now w even a few small cells out aheadbofbthe main cluster. Unless my eyes are playing tricks on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Got round 2 developing back in IA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I'm going to be livid when the best derecho in ages missing DC by 30 miles to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Tornado on the ground spotted with that warning, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 I'm going to be livid when the best derecho in ages missing DC by 30 miles to the south. i think we'll get in on it in some fashion tho it could be close. that northern part is moving more east than southeast. plus it might just be the pregame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Southern edge of it produced 70mph winds in Kentucky, so I still might see some impressive outflow if I get just the southern part.. Damage caused by the gust in KY: https://p.twimg.com/AwlwO-yCEAEkMXy.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 12z gfs still likes the monday threat tho it is still focused to the east and south of dc/balt. the long range pattern is good too--probably not real but eh. nice fast flow--derecho time! 8 day lead! > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 i think we'll get in on it in some fashion tho it could be close. that northern part is moving more east than southeast. plus it might just be the pregame. We'll get wrecked tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I'm going to be livid when the best derecho in ages missing DC by 30 miles to the south. I don't think it's going to miss. There are some small cells popping sw of latrobe, pa right now. Atmosphere is ripe in our parts. I'm thinking the northern edge stays strong and we'll have some fun tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Southern edge of it produced 70mph winds in Kentucky, so I still might see some impressive outflow if I get just the southern part.. Damage caused by the gust in KY: https://p.twimg.com/AwlwO-yCEAEkMXy.jpg Thank goodness fords are built tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 We'll get wrecked tomorrow. im prepping to go out tonight.. is the mall still all fooked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Here comes the watch. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0438.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Wow, there is some nice rotation showing in the twarn area. The loop looks pretty serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Still say the brunt of it goes just SW of Richmond tonight. Think it's make a sharp right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 im prepping to go out tonight.. is the mall still all fooked? go out tonight...to watch the storms? otherwise why would you ever go out on the mall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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