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Late June 2012 storms


Ian

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It looks like, unless we can get some stronger development on the northern end, the main core of the derecho will barely miss DC:

post-96-0-80953400-1341007146_thumb.png

I may be too far south for much unless the southern edge decides to become more robust. I'd like to be a few counties north of Roanoke right now. :popcorn:

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0503 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OH/NRN KY/WV/SWRN PA/WRN

MD/MUCH OF VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436...

VALID 292203Z - 292330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE

WITH THE ONGOING DERECHO.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED/INTENSE BOWING

ARC OF STORMS MOVING ESEWD AT 50 KT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OH ATTM.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AS WELL AS OBSERVED GUSTS IN EXCESS

OF 80 MPH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM

AIRMASS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOW 100S IN

MANY LOCATIONS...EXPECT THE DERECHO TO CONTINUE -- CROSSING THE OH

VALLEY AND MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

EXPECT THAT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO VA/MD THIS

EVENING...GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FAVORABLE

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THUS...NEW WW DOWNSTREAM OF WATCH 436

WILL BE ISSUED WHICH WILL EXTEND EWD TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

..GOSS.. 06/29/2012

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It's gonna be close imb. There has been a tendancy for little cells to keep popping just in front of the northern bow. And there has been what looks like alot of hail in that section as well. Should be plenty strong to make it over the apps. I will remain optimistic until I must become pessimistic. The cells popping just north of wheeling on the last couple frames keep me optimistic.

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I'm going to be livid when the best derecho in ages missing DC by 30 miles to the south.

i think we'll get in on it in some fashion tho it could be close. that northern part is moving more east than southeast.

plus it might just be the pregame.

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12z gfs still likes the monday threat tho it is still focused to the east and south of dc/balt. the long range pattern is good too--probably not real but eh. nice fast flow--derecho time! ;)

8 day lead! >;)

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I'm going to be livid when the best derecho in ages missing DC by 30 miles to the south.

I don't think it's going to miss. There are some small cells popping sw of latrobe, pa right now. Atmosphere is ripe in our parts. I'm thinking the northern edge stays strong and we'll have some fun tonight.

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