SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 You guys think this MCS/soon to be derecho, has any chance of getting as far north as BWI? If it does, I may go after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 New outlook says it just may make it to the Atlantic Coast. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E CNTRL IND EWD ACROSS OH...WV...AND SWRN PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA SEWD TO THE DELMARVA... ...UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK FOR PORTIONS OF IND...OH...WV AND SW PA... ...INDIANA SEWD TO THE DELMARVA... AN MCS CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE ACROSS INDIANA...WHERE WINDS WERE RECENTLY MEASURED AT 91 MPH. AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ALL THE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH MEAN WINDS ALOFT ARE ON THE MARGINS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENTS...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP WITH PEAK HEATING BEING ACHIEVED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE EWD AND SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...AND GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE CIN FORECAST THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO THE COAST. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE FROM IND TO WV. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 It looks better than earlier for getting into dc Balt but hard to say yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 It looks better than earlier for getting into dc Balt but hard to say yet I think dc has a better chance than Balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 It looks better than earlier for getting into dc Balt but hard to say yet Ya, that's what I'm thinking. I know my stepmom's house in WV is gonna get raked. What I wouldn't give to be there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Ya, that's what I'm thinking. I know my stepmom's house in WV is gonna get raked. What I wouldn't give to be there right now. I am thoroughly excited especially given the view I have of the west. Now if I only had a tripod; I'll grab pictures if it holds up. IIRC this would be the panhandle's/N WV first severe event this year. But I do hope the DC Metro area gets some derecho lovin, there's a good chance that it'll make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I think dc has a better chance than Balt Well hopefully if it misses all of us N of DC, we'll get out taste tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Well hopefully if it misses all of us N of DC, we'll get out taste tomorrow. Oh. I thought the mcs was tomorrows storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Oh. I thought the mcs was tomorrows storm I thought this was the late tonight/early AM thing - I Might be wrong. I have been out of the loop a bit (mom just back home from hip replacement surgery). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I thought this was the late tonight/early AM thing - I Might be wrong. I have been out of the loop a bit (mom just back home from hip replacement surgery). I'm confused too, hope your mom recovers quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I thought this was the late tonight/early AM thing - I Might be wrong. I have been out of the loop a bit (mom just back home from hip replacement surgery). There's 2 rounds, tomorrow is where we might get hit good, ian thinks mdt is possible. Tonight would be a wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I'm confused too, hope your mom recovers quickly I know I'm talking about what's coming out of Indiana, meaning tonight. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 From LWX's new AFD. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Well hopefully if it misses all of us N of DC, we'll get out taste tomorrow. Hopefully we get both and more I want no power for 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Hopefully we get both and more I want no power for 2 weeks Tomorrow should end up a bit south of progged and be good for DC metro. Tonight, still think it dips through C VA but maybe it continues a bit more east of SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 18z NAM rocks DC tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 18z NAM rocks DC tomorrow night. Is it super hawt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 the radar in ohio looks pretty sexy. i think that stuff can get us if the trajectory stays the same. but it's probably going to still want to bend a bit southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 northwest flow is my favorite when imobile. it's pretty tough to get a good one here tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Tomorrow should end up a bit south of progged and be good for DC metro. Tonight, still think it dips through C VA but maybe it continues a bit more east of SE. Right now it's moving much more east than south. It's still north of I-70 and almost to Columbus so it better get to moving south fast if you're gonna be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 the radar in ohio looks pretty sexy. i think that stuff can get us if the trajectory stays the same. but it's probably going to still want to bend a bit southeast. I'd be feel pretty good if I was in RIC-Fredericksburg, but looks like we'll be just too far, barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Today's severe storm complex (IN-OH) may make it about as far as the eastern panhandle of WV around midnight before starting to fragment into less severe cells, some of which may reach Chesapeake Bay, but I wouldn't rule out one severe cell crossing MD around 0300h. In addition, there may be heat releases when the cells begin to weaken. This is sometimes seen in the plains states after days with very hot weather and isolated severe storms. You can get a temporary rise in late overnight temperatures from 75-80 F up into the 90s as this heated daytime air is released from the decaying storms. I would agree that Saturday evening to early Sunday morning is a more potent severe risk for the MD-DC-noVA region although the worst of this may hit s/c PA ... today's action is mainly the work of Lake Michigan's lake breeze convergence but tomorrow could bring Lake Huron and Lake Erie, even Lake Ontario into the picture. Returning to today's activity, I would say that much of WV, southwest to south central PA, western third of MD are likely to see a severe storm around 9 pm (west) to midnight (east) and from there east the risks are probably something like 50% for Hagerstown to Blue Ridge region of VA and 30% for DC to BWI, 10-20% for the Delmarva and south-central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I'll be watching that derecho/MCS mess. I might get scraped by the southern edge of it if it stays together over the apps. Seems like just about anything that comes W/NW over the apps here gets torn apart. I must say, the CAPE is very high in this area right now along with many other parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 i love how you can go from see text to mod risk in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Today's severe storm complex (IN-OH) may make it about as far as the eastern panhandle of WV around midnight before starting to fragment into less severe cells, some of which may reach Chesapeake Bay, but I wouldn't rule out one severe cell crossing MD around 0300h. In addition, there may be heat releases when the cells begin to weaken. This is sometimes seen in the plains states after days with very hot weather and isolated severe storms. You can get a temporary rise in late overnight temperatures from 75-80 F up into the 90s as this heated daytime air is released from the decaying storms. I would agree that Saturday evening to early Sunday morning is a more potent severe risk for the MD-DC-noVA region although the worst of this may hit s/c PA ... today's action is mainly the work of Lake Michigan's lake breeze convergence but tomorrow could bring Lake Huron and Lake Erie, even Lake Ontario into the picture. Returning to today's activity, I would say that much of WV, southwest to south central PA, western third of MD are likely to see a severe storm around 9 pm (west) to midnight (east) and from there east the risks are probably something like 50% for Hagerstown to Blue Ridge region of VA and 30% for DC to BWI, 10-20% for the Delmarva and south-central VA. tomorrow has a more distinct shortwave to work with .. it's not the most impressive one ever but i think that alone argues that tomorrow will be another very potent day just further east. regarding the current event: instability will remain high thru the night so i would not necessarily expect it to fall apart unless the mtns rip it up real good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 tomorrow has a more distinct shortwave to work with .. it's not the most impressive one ever but i think that alone argues that tomorrow will be another very potent day just further east. regarding the current event: instability will remain high thru the night so i would not necessarily expect it to fall apart unless the mtns rip it up real good. Yeah I saw that s/w on the charts and it argues for a day potentially more potent than today. I certainly believe 30% hatched tonight but mdt is not out of the question, especially in a similar upgrade fashion that today had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 extrapolating the current movement of the tip of the bow brings it pretty close to DC if it went straight. however i think it might be riding just north of the 588 dm height which cuts south of DC. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I know I'm talking about what's coming out of Indiana, meaning tonight. lol Got it, thanks 18z NAM rocks DC tomorrow night. How's it look for Balt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Got it, thanks How's it look for Balt? It's weird, it actually strengthens as it passes DC, doesn't look too crazy for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 It's weird, it actually strengthens as it passes DC, doesn't look too crazy for BWI. Bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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