mappy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Oh yes. Dead serious. D'oh... I'm dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 High res NAM on E Walls looks to have a nice line coming in overnight tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Nam Goes nuts 00z-03z Sunday with the MCS thats currently over Nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 im still sketched on today/tonight .. eml might be too much with no significant trigger. however there are some boundaries bouncing around and something could fire particularly in the higher elevation and head this way. tomorrow has had a good bit of support tho im not sold dc gets in on the best stuff. i just hope we get to tap this air mass fully at least once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 im still sketched on today/tonight .. eml might be too much with no significant trigger. however there are some boundaries bouncing around and something could fire particularly in the higher elevation and head this way. tomorrow has had a good bit of support tho im not sold dc gets in on the best stuff. i just hope we get to tap this air mass fully at least once. HRRR (for little it's worth) has the Chicago convection complex maintaining itself and pushing through DC 8-10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 HRRR (for little it's worth) has the Chicago convection complex maintaining itself and pushing through DC 8-10pm. definitely possible especially if it becomes large. i'd be nervous the current trajectory might try to take it south but hard to say yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Could someone please define MCS and EML, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 lots of nice shelf action near chicago. im hoping for some this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Could someone please define MCS and EML, please? MCS = Mesoscale Convective System (cluster of storms is the laymans definition). A big squall line can qualify as an MCS. EML = Elevated Mixed Layer - somebody else will have to define. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 http://bangladeshtornadoes.org/EML/emlpage.html Good read on EMLs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 MCS = Mesoscale Convective System (cluster of storms is the laymans definition). A big squall line can qualify as an MCS. EML = Elevated Mixed Layer - somebody else will have to define. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Thank you! Yep! Though I must admit, I barely read that link myself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 lots of nice shelf action near chicago. im hoping for some this weekend. Is this forky's derecho? I hate the thought of a dead puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Is this forky's derecho? I hate the thought of a dead puppy. i guess it could be.. tho it could have been anything in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 New SPC D2: ...IA/IL EWD TO THE DELMARVA... ONGOING STORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IND AND OH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING STRONG DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AHEAD OF IT FROM PA/WV EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AN MCS DEVELOPS. THE PRECISE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN...SO WILL DEFER A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER PROBS TO LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCLUDE PITTSBURGH...PHILADELPHIA AND WASHINGTON D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 New SPC D2: ...IA/IL EWD TO THE DELMARVA... ONGOING STORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IND AND OH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING STRONG DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AHEAD OF IT FROM PA/WV EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AN MCS DEVELOPS. THE PRECISE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN...SO WILL DEFER A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER PROBS TO LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCLUDE PITTSBURGH...PHILADELPHIA AND WASHINGTON D.C. Hail mention gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Hail mention gone? not sure it's intentional but winds would be main threat i'd think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 What time are we looking at for this very late tonight or sometime tomorrow noon-ish or later? New SPC D2: ...IA/IL EWD TO THE DELMARVA... ONGOING STORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IND AND OH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING STRONG DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AHEAD OF IT FROM PA/WV EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AN MCS DEVELOPS. THE PRECISE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN...SO WILL DEFER A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER PROBS TO LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCLUDE PITTSBURGH...PHILADELPHIA AND WASHINGTON D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 What time are we looking at for this very late tonight or sometime tomorrow noon-ish or later? this would be late tomorrow into tomorrow night potentially. there could be some stuff before that tonight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 June 4 2008 repeat?!?! lol jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 June 4 2008 repeat?!?! lol jk it's a similar pattern.. maybe less dynamics with the jet but more cape etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 it's a similar pattern.. maybe less dynamics with the jet but more cape etc. Probably less derecho-ish and more line segement-ish - more CAPE probably would yield more hail threat than 2008 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 ridiculous cape to the sw of dc.. thanks eml! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IND...CNTRL/SRN OH...NRN/CNTRL WV CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 291907Z - 292000Z SUMMARY...A WIND-DRIVEN MODERATE RISK WILL BE ISSUED AT THE 20Z FOR BOWING MCS CURRENTLY IN IND. DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE FORTHCOMING 20Z SWODY1 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. ..GRAMS.. 06/29/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Unless trajectory changes probably more a threat down in RIC, should go south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IND...CNTRL/SRN OH...NRN/CNTRL WV CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 291907Z - 292000Z SUMMARY...A WIND-DRIVEN MODERATE RISK WILL BE ISSUED AT THE 20Z FOR BOWING MCS CURRENTLY IN IND. DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE FORTHCOMING 20Z SWODY1 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. ..GRAMS.. 06/29/2012 Maybe a sign of things to come for tomorrow, but yeah this one will be dc s unless orientatio changes but in the past ive found they dive s more in that area anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Was thinking we might get a mod tomorrow somewhere. Now more thinking that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Was thinking we might get a mod tomorrow somewhere. Now more thinking that. Maybe from like DC, up into PA and then back to the NW a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Was thinking we might get a mod tomorrow somewhere. Now more thinking that. Yeah I agree Ian as I was saying just above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Fort Wayne just gusted to 91 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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