CT Rain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 ended up being almost a dead even split between the two out here...though MAV was out to lunch 48 hours ago when it was like low 80s. Yeah it's funny I should have specified BDL/HFD/BAF/ASH etc for that MOS statement. The numbers were all over the place for BDR/HVN/GON. Half the time you're better off looking at inland MOS and adjusting based on what you think the sea breeze will do. The inland valley torch spots always seem to get overtorched on MOS. The weird thing is in the past the MAV has gone balls out with 105s and 106s... this time it was the MET (and KFS) printing out 102s. At the end of the day the cooler 850s verified and we ticked 1-2c off the final numbers... and winds also veered to more northerly in the CT Valley so downslope flow was minimal this afternoon. When the models print out 22-24C 850s then you should go 100+ if everything else looks good. 20ish won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 I was actually more accurate both days than the KFS. But for you a bust of only 6 degrees is pretty solid. Your dew calls hour by hour were atrocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 102F at bay rd on 495. Car thermo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Sea breeze kicked in on schedule at 11, suntastic low humidity 80 ish day right on the beach, just a little inland hot hot hot. Wave riding contest with the Grandkids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Your dew calls hour by hour were atrocious Hmmm... I was off by 2 yesterday and 1 degree today with the dew point. That's a pretty good forecast. KFS for BDL High temp Wed 100 High temp Thurs 102 4pm dewpoint Wed 69 Thurs 65 Ryan Wednesday 98 Thursday 100 4pm dew Wed 68 Thursday 64 Actual Numbers Wed High - 97 Thu High - 96 4pm dew Wednesday - 70 4pm dew Thursday - 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Yeah it's funny I should have specified BDL/HFD/BAF/ASH etc for that MOS statement. The numbers were all over the place for BDR/HVN/GON. Half the time you're better off looking at inland MOS and adjusting based on what you think the sea breeze will do. The inland valley torch spots always seem to get overtorched on MOS. The weird thing is in the past the MAV has gone balls out with 105s and 106s... this time it was the MET (and KFS) printing out 102s. At the end of the day the cooler 850s verified and we ticked 1-2c off the final numbers... and winds also veered to more northerly in the CT Valley so downslope flow was minimal this afternoon. When the models print out 22-24C 850s then you should go 100+ if everything else looks good. 20ish won't cut it. that was the big hesitation that we noticed several days ago and kept going back to. you like to see the euro throw out one of those stupid overdone 24Cs and then expect it to verify at like 22-23C. the highest i was seeing on the euro IIRC was 21C and on the NAM 22C. you have to really stretch to pull the century mark on that. the other thing that i've thought about is the air mass itself wasn't atrocious to our west. it was very hot, no doubt, but the source region was not triple digit heat. it was 90-97F type of stuff for about a day and a half. of course the airmass can fluctuate as it comes east etc.but it wasn't one of those ones that was chucking out 100s all over the midwest for 4 days and then rolling east. go back and look at the numbers out across the midwest 7/18-20 and look at that massive heat dome that just engulfed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 In fact over the 2 days my total error for high temperatures was 5 degrees. Yours was 9. Our dew point error was the same. Easy to see who wins over the KFS? (Every met other than Analog96) Hmmm... I was off by 2 yesterday and 1 degree today with the dew point. That's a pretty good forecast. KFS for BDL High temp Wed 100 High temp Thurs 102 4pm dewpoint Wed 69 Thurs 65 Ryan Wednesday 98 Thursday 100 4pm dew Wed 68 Thursday 64 Actual Numbers Wed High - 97 Thu High - 96 4pm dew Wednesday - 70 4pm dew Thursday - 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 LOL...PVC and HYA both in the low 90s...both with a NE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 that was the big hesitation that we noticed several days ago and kept going back to. you like to see the euro throw out one of those stupid overdone 24Cs and then expect it to verify at like 22-23C. the highest i was seeing on the euro IIRC was 21C and on the NAM 22C. you have to really stretch to pull the century mark on that. the other thing that i've thought about is the air mass itself wasn't atrocious to our west. it was very hot, no doubt, but the source region was not triple digit heat. it was 90-97F type of stuff for about a day and a half. of course the airmass can fluctuate as it comes east etc.but it wasn't one of those ones that was chucking out 100s all over the midwest for 4 days and then rolling east. go back and look at the numbers out across the midwest 7/18-20 and look at that massive heat dome that just engulfed us. Agreed with all of the above... and why I was initially hesitant to go higher than U90s. Should have stuck to my guns. The weenie Euro +24c contour is a good signal for actual 22-23 850s lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 It is hot as ****. We can admit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 LOL...PVC and HYA both in the low 90s...both with a NE wind. wtf.. three consecutive bos 90+ is enough of a rarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 wtf.. three consecutive bos 90+ is enough of a rarity it's hardly a breeze though...like 3 or 4 knots so not really doing much. still kinda neat. regardless, there is hardly any wind right now...just a torching hot afternoon. unusual for out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Top 2 summer day, one more property then its time for a 5 setter with my buddy on the courts at the beach!! 93/67 winds have switched to the sw, li sound now having a little influence, low dews with a seabreeze is going to make for a special evening. Have a great rest of the day folks! A top ten day for sure, just a perfect sea breeze. Pete can have his Glen this time of the year. Living on the beach on a day like today is where it's at. Oh and about the Whistler après ski babes, eh no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 WST up to 30C. Misquamicut will be miserable today. Oh as wrong as it ever gets, KFS type epically wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Mid-Afternoon in NNE... does anyone know if BOX has any of these fancy meso-scale analysis maps like BTV where you can pick all sorts of different variables and plot them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Sea breeze kicked in on schedule at 11, suntastic low humidity 80 ish day right on the beach, just a little inland hot hot hot. Wave riding contest with the Grandkids. Awesome Ginx!!! It was an incredible day, glad you got out and enjoyed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Yup things tipped cooler. Guidance too high as many of us thought may happen. 48 hours ago seemed like 100 was possible but we ticked cooler. I really think the lower temps out in the Ohio Valley were a give away that we wouldn't see a bunch of valley 100s like BDL/ASH/CEF/BOS. And why was BOX forecasting 100F for BOS? Didn't they have back to back days in the point and click at one point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Mid-Afternoon in NNE... does anyone know if BOX has any of these fancy meso-scale analysis maps like BTV where you can pick all sorts of different variables and plot them? I wish BOX had the stuff BTV has. I feel like The only good thing BOX has are the snow maps and those 2 or 3 case studies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Hmmm... I was off by 2 yesterday and 1 degree today with the dew point. That's a pretty good forecast. KFS for BDL High temp Wed 100 High temp Thurs 102 4pm dewpoint Wed 69 Thurs 65 Ryan Wednesday 98 Thursday 100 4pm dew Wed 68 Thursday 64 Actual Numbers Wed High - 97 Thu High - 96 4pm dew Wednesday - 70 4pm dew Thursday - 63 Dude..every hour yesterday you were posting that we should see dews fall off..and they lingered 70 or much higher all day yesterday..Ticked 69 once and then shot back up the next hour.We both didn't have great forecasts..but neither were awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 I really think the lower temps out in the Ohio Valley were a give away that we wouldn't see a bunch of valley 100s like BDL/ASH/CEF/BOS. And why was BOX forecasting 100F for BOS? Didn't they have back to back days in the point and click at one point? People love those for some reason. It may work better up your way with elevation but I'm not a fan of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Agreed with all of the above... and why I was initially hesitant to go higher than U90s. Should have stuck to my guns. The weenie Euro +24c contour is a good signal for actual 22-23 850s lol. Yeah...borderline 19-20C really makes it near impossible to pull off unless everything else goes perfect for the normal torch locales. 23C seems pretty rare for all of the soundings I've looked at for the 100F days at the climo sites. I think last July is about as hot as I've ever seen for 850s over a wide area with a lot of 22-24C temps. I think on 00z the 23rd CHH actually had an 850 of 26C in their sounding. Along with the hot mid level temps we had great surface conditions with WNW flow resulting in low dews and mostly clear skies, and the max temps in the hot spots were generally 102-103F. Cut off 2C from that day and you get 20-22C with 2m flirting with 100F. Cut off another 2C and you get a day like today with 19-20C and a lot of 96-97F readings at 2m. If we didn't have MOS spewing 100s for days I think many of us would have been more hesitant with tossing the century mark around given the 850 temp progs. Given all of that, 7/4/1911 is probably close to our warmest 850 temp day on record in New England given the numerous 103-107F readings. We must have been around 25-26C during the afternoon on that day...too bad we don't have sounding data from then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Dude..every hour yesterday you were posting that we should see dews fall off..and they lingered 70 or much higher all day yesterday..Ticked 69 once and then shot back up the next hour. We both didn't have great forecasts..but neither were awful Spin master K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Spin master K. An absolute classic..must have on your phone/ipod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The inland valley torch spots always seem to get overtorched on MOS. Could a MET explain why that is? Isn't MOS aided somewhat by climo statistics and wouldn't that cause them to be too low in near record heat situations, as well as too high in near record cold situations? Wouldn't statistics somehow temper those more extreme values to what is more realistic in terms of probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 People love those for some reason. It may work better up your way with elevation but I'm not a fan of those. I feel they are generally good within about 4 degrees on either side. Not great, but decent 89F was the high here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 KFS dud better yesterday than rfh and today both were off. KFS phailed today and for that I am sorry Still, thousands of lives were saved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Could a MET explain why that is? Isn't MOS aided somewhat by climo statistics and wouldn't that cause them to be too low in near record heat situations, as well as too high in near record cold situations? Wouldn't statistics somehow temper those more extreme values to what is more realistic in terms of probability. Well MET did finally come down somewhat from a few days ago which is also a product of temps aloft being a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 I feel they are generally good within about 4 degrees on either side. Not great, but decent 89F was the high here today Same here. The way I figure it, if it weren't for the lower sun angle, we all would have been reporting triple digits. 88.3/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 2 days in arow here and ORH at 1,000 feet is damn impressive for any month. I hit 92 yesterday and 90 today..ORH was about the same..Most places in SNE should verify 3 day heatwave except for a weenie few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Could a MET explain why that is? Isn't MOS aided somewhat by climo statistics and wouldn't that cause them to be too low in near record heat situations, as well as too high in near record cold situations? Wouldn't statistics somehow temper those more extreme values to what is more realistic in terms of probability. You'd think so... Yeah lol. Not sure why MOS does funky things in the valley during excessive heat. Great post by dendrite above. Marginal 20-21 isn't going to cut it. You want to see +22 or 23 widespread for widespread 100s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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