mike2010 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 2 pages of threads and I couldn't find a single topic on our possible upcoming El Nino and latest SST updates....so I made one. Latest SST seems a bit ominous . If this thread encourages weenie'ism...then my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Mike, There is already a 2012 ENSO topic in the main wx section. Do you think this maybe should be put there? Then again, I assume this is looking at the El Nino from a global temp. perspective, which would generate a different kind of discussion. So, maybe not. Regardless, there is a major SOI plunge on the horizon and June 2012's SOI is looking to be a rather impressive sub -10, a sign of a likely impending El Nino. So, it would appear that Nino SST's will continue to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 ahh, thanks. El Nino's effect climate as well, which is why I figured most of the talk would be here. Feel free to delete or keep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 How strong this El Nino gets and how warm the temperatures get in relation to 2010, 2005, and 1998 (they were all about as warm) should be interesting. I would put my money with there not being an overwhelmingly strong El Nino, perhaps moderate at the highest because of the -PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Here we go! This could be the test some of us have been waiting for. Since ENSO produces the strongest, high amplitude short term variability created by natural factors affecting global temperatures, will we experience a new yearly global high temperature anomaly either this year or next? According to theory, the background build up of thermal energy as a consequence of AGW is becoming exposed to the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. This extra warmth will be transported poleward by ocean and atmospheric currents of the general circulation warming the atmosphere as a whole. This does take some time to propagate, so there is a lag of about 5 months before the full impact is felt. Because of this lag, and if the Nino extends into next spring, then if not this year then next I would expect a new record high temp anomaly to be attained. 2010 was warmed by weak Nino conditions and either tied or nearly tied for the record. It shouldn't take much of a Nino two the three years later to push over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 2010 was not a weak El Nino, it peaked at a strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 2010 was not a weak El Nino, it peaked at a strong El Nino. We will split the difference. On further checking, the 2009 Nino (which influenced 2010 temp anomaly) is officially classified as a moderate El Nino because it did not peak for the required 3 consecutive months above 1.5. SEE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Here we go! This could be the test some of us have been waiting for. Since ENSO produces the strongest, high amplitude short term variability created by natural factors affecting global temperatures, will we experience a new yearly global high temperature anomaly either this year or next? According to theory, the background build up of thermal energy as a consequence of AGW is becoming exposed to the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. This extra warmth will be transported poleward by ocean and atmospheric currents of the general circulation warming the atmosphere as a whole. This does take some time to propagate, so there is a lag of about 5 months before the full impact is felt. Because of this lag, and if the Nino extends into next spring, then if not this year then next I would expect a new record high temp anomaly to be attained. 2010 was warmed by weak Nino conditions and either tied or nearly tied for the record. It shouldn't take much of a Nino two the three years later to push over the top. While I applaud your enthusiastic support for a "pass/fail" test (as per the Sci. Method) for support or falsification of a hypothesis, the test you have outlined would come up short as a definitive test, as there are many other factors that go into a global temp anomoly at any give timeframe (of course). Would such a test be of use as potential evidence either way? Sure, but I'm afraid that no matter the outcome, either side of the debate will still have an out....thus, my enthusiasm is certainly less than that of what I perceive yours to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 While I applaud your enthusiastic support for a "pass/fail" test (as per the Sci. Method) for support or falsification of a hypothesis, the test you have outlined would come up short as a definitive test, as there are many other factors that go into a global temp anomoly at any give timeframe (of course). Would such a test be of use as potential evidence either way? Sure, but I'm afraid that no matter the outcome, either side of the debate will still have an out....thus, my enthusiasm is certainly less than that of what I perceive yours to be. Of course the public debate would continue, that goes without saying. However, one of the main skeptical arguments, that warming has ceased, stagnated or been reversed will have been struck a strong blow as will all the rational used to support stagnation and cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Has there ever been any talk of why El Nino seems to almost always occur perfectly along the line of the Equator each and every time? Magnetic effects maybe ? (sun / earth ) or an ocean fault underneath allowing more heat current to escape ? (possibly ridiculous ideas) Just seems weird how it's perfectly always in the middle of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Has there ever been any talk of why El Nino seems to almost always occur perfectly along the line of the Equator each and every time? Magnetic effects maybe ? (sun / earth ) or an ocean fault underneath allowing more heat current to escape ? (possibly ridiculous ideas) Just seems weird how it's perfectly always in the middle of that line. I'm going to throw a guess out there and assume that the water in that area is not subjected to much mixing and transport, quite stationary. Anyone know why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 While I applaud your enthusiastic support for a "pass/fail" test (as per the Sci. Method) for support or falsification of a hypothesis, the test you have outlined would come up short as a definitive test, as there are many other factors that go into a global temp anomoly at any give timeframe (of course). Would such a test be of use as potential evidence either way? Sure, but I'm afraid that no matter the outcome, either side of the debate will still have an out....thus, my enthusiasm is certainly less than that of what I perceive yours to be. Are you implying that climate scientists that propose anthropogenic climate change is occurring do not test their hypothesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I'm going to throw a guess out there and assume that the water in that area is not subjected to much mixing and transport, quite stationary. Anyone know why? Probably has to do with the 3 cell model. I am 99.9% certain the earth's magnetic field has nothing to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Has there ever been any talk of why El Nino seems to almost always occur perfectly along the line of the Equator each and every time? Magnetic effects maybe ? (sun / earth ) or an ocean fault underneath allowing more heat current to escape ? (possibly ridiculous ideas) Just seems weird how it's perfectly always in the middle of that line. I found this if it helps with your question. "The great width of the Pacific Ocean is the main reason we see El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in that ocean as compared to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Most current theories of ENSO involve planetary scale equatorial waves. The time it takes these waves to cross the Pacific is one of the factors that sets the time scale and amplitude of ENSO climate anomalies. The narrower width of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans means the waves can cross those basins in less time, so that ocean adjusts more quickly to wind variations. Conversely, wind variations in the Pacific Ocean excites waves that take a long time to cross the basin, so that the Pacific adjusts to wind variations more slowly. This slower adjustment time allows the ocean-atmosphere system to drift further from equilibrium than in the narrower Atlantic or Indian Ocean, with the result that interannual climate anomalies (e.g. unusually warm or cold Sea Surface Temperatures) are larger in the Pacific.'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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