CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 The HRRR has been pretty consistent through the last few runs of suppressing convection from NH through the CT/MA border. Basically forming clusters in the Tri-State area and central ME. Yeah I've actually been impressed that the HRRR hasn't been flopping around like a fish. Now if it verifies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I don't buy that logic btw. One of the Boston mets last night (Bouchard? I forget... 11PM is usually past my bedtime...) was saying basically the same thing. Really limited chance, and I think he was saying the layers were not set up for widespread storms... Of course I was bleary eyed at the time. I will see if he discussed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 I don't buy that logic btw. Mid level dry ir is the latest craze! Get with it! LOL, without looking maybe he means low KI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Tomorrow looks interesting on the NAM. Supposed to be camping at Scusset beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Yeah I've actually been impressed that the HRRR hasn't been flopping around like a fish. Now if it verifies.... I'm skeptical because the forcing is relatively weak, though it has preformed alright the last couple of evenings with convection percolating and rolling southeast out of Canada. I don't hate the idea though, as the two areas with the greatest moisture pooling is far southern New England and central ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 You can sort of see where the action may set up with higher dews south of pike and especially CT. Winds to the north are still west to northwest which makes me wonder what will happen in these areas. Maybe winds veer a bit through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I'm skeptical because the forcing is relatively weak, though it has preformed alright the last couple of evenings with convection percolating and rolling southeast out of Canada. I don't hate the idea though, as the two areas with the greatest moisture pooling is far southern New England and central ME. Yeah but I don't think it's a mid level dry air issue. I agree that the better BL moisture pooling is located in the 2 locations you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 You can sort of see where the action may set up with higher dews south of pike and especially CT. Winds to the north are still west to northwest which makes me wonder what will happen in these areas. Maybe winds veer a bit through the day. I guess where in CT? Is this a entire Northern Ct set up or is it more localized I.E Western/Cenral/Eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 I guess where in CT? Is this a entire Northern Ct set up or is it more localized I.E Western/Cenral/Eastern? Ryan might know better. I'm limited since I'm just on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Ryan might know better. I'm limited since I'm just on my phone. I think whole state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 I think whole state. At a quick glance, this looks like. CT/RI/ SE MA deal? I Guess more CT then anything but that's what it looks like to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 At a quick glance, this looks like. CT/RI/ SE MA deal? I Guess more CT then anything but that's what it looks like to me. Yeah. A lot of cu development west of ALB too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 SPC going to bump us up to a slight risk with the next outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Game on. Can see big cu to the w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Phil's favorite met Margusity says all hell breaks loose lol 2. Severe storms will hit the I-95 corridor today. I expect to see storms with wind gusts 40-70 mph locally. That means many reports of wind damage as the storms move on through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 This may be a day where weenies will report every rotten tree limb that blew down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 SPC going to bump us up to a slight risk with the next outlook. Yeah, I posted it in the heat thread, Could get interesting later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Already got a warning out on the cells down along the coast of NJ. Sea breeze action is starting the show early down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Seems like it coul be interesting down in srn SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Seems like it coul be interesting down in srn SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 West Hartford and points west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Phil's favorite met Margusity says all hell breaks loose lol 2. Severe storms will hit the I-95 corridor today. I expect to see storms with wind gusts 40-70 mph locally. That means many reports of wind damage as the storms move on through. Wouldn't bet on it. This place is awful for severe weather, 9 out of every 10 storms seems to die just as they get here. Can only hope today is the day where that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Think something fires on that trough or best action further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 West Hartford and points west? Somebody better text Wiz............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 The hail being introduced into the probabilities will certainly make some folks happy. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Think something fires on that trough or best action further west? I mean right now the parameters say the best stuff stays to the west, especially with dew points depressed from ORH up through CON on east. Then again, elevated heating is getting cells going in Grafton County, NH with dew points in the low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM NRN NY SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN PA AND WRN WV. SFC TROUGH WITH WEAK EMBEDDED LOWS WAS EVIDENT PARALLEL TO COLD FRONT AND FARTHER E...EXTENDING FROM SERN VA NNEWD OVER SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ERN NJ TO RI AND ERN MA...INTERSECTING WARM FRONT JUST OFFSHORE NH. WARM FRONT EXTENDED NNEWD FROM THERE OVER MAINE. TROUGH APPEARS COLLOCATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER ERN NJ...AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. MODIFIED IAD/APG/WAL/OKX RAOBS SUGGEST PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MIX VIGOROUSLY ACROSS MUCH OF NEAR-COASTAL CORRIDOR IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING. SIMILAR PROCESS SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED PREFRONTAL CLOUD BAND. RESULT WOULD BE POCKETS OF REDUCED SFC DEW POINTS...AT BASE OF INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FEATURING NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. YET MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT EVEN IN THOSE RELATIVELY DRY AREAS TO OFFSET MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND KEEP AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY OVER REGION. GIVEN HORIZONTALLY INHOMOGENEOUS NATURE OF EXPECTED MIXING/MOISTURE FIELDS...MLCAPE WILL VARY GREATLY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 500-2500 J/KG...TRENDING INVERSELY WITH STRENGTH OF VERTICAL MIXING. 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO MULTICELL MODES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL BOWS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED COLD-POOL FORCING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Well nice to see the SPC extend the slight risk up here. South and west looking a lot better at this time, but I'll take it all the same. Also added a slight into C and N ME, and introduced some hail probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 ...ME... MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ME TODAY AS STRONG HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. INITIAL STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING OVER FAR NRN ME...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN ME THIS AFTERNOON. SEE MCD 1238 FOR MORE DETAILS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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