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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread III


CoastalWx

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The HRRR has been pretty consistent through the last few runs of suppressing convection from NH through the CT/MA border. Basically forming clusters in the Tri-State area and central ME.

Yeah I've actually been impressed that the HRRR hasn't been flopping around like a fish. Now if it verifies....

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I don't buy that logic btw.

One of the Boston mets last night (Bouchard? I forget... 11PM is usually past my bedtime...) was saying basically the same thing. Really limited chance, and I think he was saying the layers were not set up for widespread storms...

Of course I was bleary eyed at the time. I will see if he discussed it.

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Yeah I've actually been impressed that the HRRR hasn't been flopping around like a fish. Now if it verifies....

I'm skeptical because the forcing is relatively weak, though it has preformed alright the last couple of evenings with convection percolating and rolling southeast out of Canada.

I don't hate the idea though, as the two areas with the greatest moisture pooling is far southern New England and central ME.

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I'm skeptical because the forcing is relatively weak, though it has preformed alright the last couple of evenings with convection percolating and rolling southeast out of Canada.

I don't hate the idea though, as the two areas with the greatest moisture pooling is far southern New England and central ME.

Yeah but I don't think it's a mid level dry air issue. I agree that the better BL moisture pooling is located in the 2 locations you mentioned.

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You can sort of see where the action may set up with higher dews south of pike and especially CT. Winds to the north are still west to northwest which makes me wonder what will happen in these areas. Maybe winds veer a bit through the day.

I guess where in CT? Is this a entire Northern Ct set up or is it more localized I.E Western/Cenral/Eastern?

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Phil's favorite met Margusity says all hell breaks loose lol

2. Severe storms will hit the I-95 corridor today. I expect to see storms with wind gusts 40-70 mph locally. That means many reports of wind damage as the storms move on through.

Wouldn't bet on it. This place is awful for severe weather, 9 out of every 10 storms seems to die just as they get here.

Can only hope today is the day where that doesn't happen.

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Think something fires on that trough or best action further west?

I mean right now the parameters say the best stuff stays to the west, especially with dew points depressed from ORH up through CON on east.

Then again, elevated heating is getting cells going in Grafton County, NH with dew points in the low 60s.

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6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM NRN NY SWWD ACROSS

CENTRAL/SWRN PA AND WRN WV. SFC TROUGH WITH WEAK EMBEDDED LOWS WAS

EVIDENT PARALLEL TO COLD FRONT AND FARTHER E...EXTENDING FROM SERN

VA NNEWD OVER SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ERN NJ TO RI AND ERN

MA...INTERSECTING WARM FRONT JUST OFFSHORE NH. WARM FRONT EXTENDED

NNEWD FROM THERE OVER MAINE. TROUGH APPEARS COLLOCATED WITH SEA

BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER ERN NJ...AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS ALREADY HAVE

DEVELOPED THERE.

MODIFIED IAD/APG/WAL/OKX RAOBS SUGGEST PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER

SHOULD MIX VIGOROUSLY ACROSS MUCH OF NEAR-COASTAL CORRIDOR IN

RESPONSE TO CONTINUED STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING. SIMILAR PROCESS

SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED PREFRONTAL CLOUD BAND. RESULT

WOULD BE POCKETS OF REDUCED SFC DEW POINTS...AT BASE OF INVERTED-V

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FEATURING NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LOW-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES. YET MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT EVEN IN THOSE RELATIVELY

DRY AREAS TO OFFSET MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND KEEP AT LEAST

MRGL BUOYANCY OVER REGION. GIVEN HORIZONTALLY INHOMOGENEOUS NATURE

OF EXPECTED MIXING/MOISTURE FIELDS...MLCAPE WILL VARY GREATLY WITH

VALUES RANGING FROM 500-2500 J/KG...TRENDING INVERSELY WITH STRENGTH

OF VERTICAL MIXING. 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES SUPPORT

SOME ORGANIZATION TO MULTICELL MODES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL BOWS

WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED COLD-POOL FORCING.

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day1otlk_1630.gif

...ME...

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL

AFFECT PARTS OF ME TODAY AS STRONG HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO

DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1500-2000

J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL STORMS TO

DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

INITIAL STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING OVER FAR NRN ME...AND

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN ME

THIS AFTERNOON. SEE MCD 1238 FOR MORE DETAILS.

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