CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Wonder if we get a second line in the afternoon across wrn areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Nicely written, Wiz, but... commas? Thanks! As for the commas not sure why I didn't add more...was typing it sort of fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 I do think those 7.5C/KM rates were a little too high on the GFS based on what the lapse rates are across the region east of the Great Lakes, but cold mid level temps could suffice. Lets hope for a few breaks of thinning of clouds at some point tomorrow. Could be a couple of lines of storms, wit the last one on the front itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Wonder if we get a second line in the afternoon across wrn areas. I think yes... as long as winds don't veer too much and start mixing out/advecting in lower dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I do think those 7.5C/KM rates were a little too high on the GFS based on what the lapse rates are across the region east of the Great Lakes, but cold mid level temps could suffice. Lets hope for a few breaks of thinning of clouds at some point tomorrow. Could be a couple of lines of storms, wit the last one on the front itself. Yeah the one thing that's interesting is that the ULL is deepening as it's dropping south... so we're actually generating cold aloft as the thing drops overhead! It's so unusual to have one of these things strengthening and moving in this time of year... normally they're well north and filling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 nasty cell over Lake Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Thanks! As for the commas not sure why I didn't add more...was typing it sort of fast. I'm pretty sure there weren't any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 nasty cell over Lake Erie Yes, nice borderline severe storm popping up at 1030 pm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Yeah the one thing that's interesting is that the ULL is deepening as it's dropping south... so we're actually generating cold aloft as the thing drops overhead! It's so unusual to have one of these things strengthening and moving in this time of year... normally they're well north and filling! Yeah and the way the trough sharpens and drops south...it allows for decent PVA and jet support as well. I would think...it should be interesting. Would be nice to get the morning convection out and some mid level drying just in time for the final line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I'm pretty sure there weren't any. wow...usually I add them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 This first batch is just light rain, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Well I'm off to try and get some sleep...alarm set for 4:08 AM but I'm sure I'll be up earlier. Hopefully I can fall asleep quick. I was going to get a 40 b/c I could drink that then pass out but I didn't feel like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Yeah and the way the trough sharpens and drops south...it allows for decent PVA and jet support as well. I would think...it should be interesting. Would be nice to get the morning convection out and some mid level drying just in time for the final line. It's an odd setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Its gon rain, PWM gets a crack at there all time June Rainfall total, Could be worse i guess if we lived in Florida............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Well I'm off to try and get some sleep...alarm set for 4:08 AM but I'm sure I'll be up earlier. Hopefully I can fall asleep quick. I was going to get a 40 b/c I could drink that then pass out but I didn't feel like it. 4:08....lol, only you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Its gon rain, PWM gets a crack at there all time June Rainfall total, Could be worse i guess if we lived in Florida............. How close are they? We have not had sig rain in awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 How close are they? We have not had sig rain in awhile They are 2" or so away, I don't know what they ended up with over the last couple of days with TS but they are getting close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 They are 2" or so away, I don't know what they ended up with over the last couple of days with TS but they are getting close Could easily do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 0z 4.0 km WRF has two nasty lines moving through... Late afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 3z HRRR afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 MCD...watch unlikely MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN MA...CT...SERN NY AND LONG ISLAND..ERN PA AND NJ... CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 250744Z - 250945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA THROUGH NEW YORK CITY BETWEEN NOW AND 10-12Z. ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE GREATER NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA... INCLUDING MUCH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD THIS MORNING. AT THE PRESENT TIME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION... ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTING A PERSISTENT LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION...SPREADING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ACTIVITY IS MOVING AT AROUND 35 KT OR SO...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK CITY BY 11-12Z. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN RATHER MODEST IN STRENGTH TO THIS POINT... BUT AS THEY APPROACH COASTAL AREAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INFLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME INTENSIFICATION. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED...AND POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING TO SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL BY 12Z APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL. ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/25/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 3z SPC SREF really continues to hit early morning and then the afternoon hours hard with severe probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Overnight pre dawn phail, for some reason lost powere here, thought it was a TStorm elsewhere but one look at the radar fixed that. Best stuff looks for now headed SWCT NYC NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Overnight pre dawn phail, for some reason lost powere here, thought it was a TStorm elsewhere but one look at the radar fixed that. Best stuff looks for now headed SWCT NYC NJ ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 ? Saw mention of a predawn 4-6 am TStorm line last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Supercell composite parameter is 4 just south of SNE with sig TOR of 1. RAP continues to get some really beefy instability values in here by 12z...have to really watch that first batch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Saw mention of a predawn 4-6 am TStorm line last night. Well we did have a band of showers with isolated thunder move through from like 2-4 AM. However, the chance for the more intense storms was anywhere from like 5-10 AM and it looks like that will be occurring perhaps by 7 AM and moving out by 10 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The 6z NAM still has impressive instability across CT by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Line beginning to intensity once again as it begins moving into a more unstable airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Already some awesome CU outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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