weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Why do you always feel the need to give us details of what your're doing everyday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Euro was a soaker for srn ME...even NE MA. North of the wf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nate Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Nate, those are the clouds we had further down at Scusset Beach. Awesome. Yeah, impressive pic! Did just the outflow make it down there, or did you get the full storm too? Seemed to me it went straight east from the Gurnet to P-Town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Yeah, impressive pic! Did just the outflow make it down there, or did you get the full storm too? Seemed to me it went straight east from the Gurnet to P-Town. A cell popped up and we got soaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 North of the wf It was actually along the stalled cold front with the wave forming. Might have to send Steve up to ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 It was actually along the stalled cold front with the wave forming. Might have to send Steve up to ME. He's probably already on his way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 southern CT in a slight risk!!! More storms that I get to watch dissipate as they make their way to the shoreline! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 More storms that I get to watch dissipate as they make their way to the shoreline! Actually tomorrow could be a day where southern CT could actually be a good spot and you really won't see storms die all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Very odd the difference in 500-700mb lapse rates tomorrow between GFS and NAM around CT. NAM is like 5.5 c/km... GFS is 7.5 c/km. My guess is the NAM is having some convective feedback issues and therefore messing with the amount of diabatic heating/latent heat release in certain portions of the atmosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Very odd the difference in 500-700mb lapse rates tomorrow between GFS and NAM around CT. NAM is like 5.5 c/km... GFS is 7.5 c/km. My guess is the NAM is having some convective feedback issues and therefore messing with the amount of diabatic heating/latent heat release in certain portions of the atmosphere? That would be a likely scenario. NAM is also rather moist with the entire column and in the mid-levels so hard to sustain good lapse rates that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 That would be a likely scenario. NAM is also rather moist with the entire column and in the mid-levels so hard to sustain good lapse rates that way. Didn't you hear? Moist adiabatic is the new dry adiabatic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Actually tomorrow could be a day where southern CT could actually be a good spot and you really won't see storms die all that much. Man I hope so, too many severe busts the past couple years down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 I actually would split the difference. 6.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Didn't you hear? Moist adiabatic is the new dry adiabatic! Is that a KFS rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 was more like 30-35 i think but it was still pretty neat. What side of Dennis? It was the north side. It was definitely above 40. It was blowing hard. I had no idea anything was coming. Entire pines were swinging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Only thing I'll be chasing tomorrow are little kids at work. I start full time summer camp job tomorrow. Scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I actually would split the difference. 6.5 NAM is actually on its own with a somewhat "wider" looking 500mb trough. The GFS/Euro are much sharper and keep strong mid level flow in place. Looks like the NAM is generating a spurious vort and screwing things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 NAM is actually on its own with a somewhat "wider" looking 500mb trough. The GFS/Euro are much sharper and keep strong mid level flow in place. Looks like the NAM is generating a spurious vort and screwing things up. How do things look downstream? I didn't look, but were 12z soundings good further west? It just seems like climo wouldn't support lapse rates like what the GFS has. I could see 6.5 to maybe 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 How do things look updownstream? I didn't look, but were 12z soundings good further west? It just seems like climo wouldn't support lapse rates like what the GFS has. I could see 6.5 to maybe 7. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 How do things look downstream? I didn't look, but were 12z soundings good further west? It just seems like climo wouldn't support lapse rates like what the GFS has. I could see 6.5 to maybe 7. I don't know that trough is really impressive that's diving south and sharpening. Getting something like that near July 1 always interests me since water temps can actually help advect solid dews north. Climo says this kind of synoptic setup is unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 I don't know that trough is really impressive that's diving south and sharpening. Getting something like that near July 1 always interests me since water temps can actually help advect solid dews north. Climo says this kind of synoptic setup is unusual. I totally agree the setup is unusual. It just seems like such high lapse rates are difficult to achieve in this setup. I wouldn't rule it out I guess, but wash was thinking 6.5-7 maybe. Either way, the setup is really cool to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Clouds have rolled in here, no more sun for a few days I guess. Enjoy it while it lasts further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I totally agree the setup is unusual. It just seems like such high lapse rates are difficult to achieve in this setup. I wouldn't rule it out I guess, but wash was thinking 6.5-7 maybe. Either way, the setup is really cool to have. We get these in May before we can cash in. Something like this around this time certainly makes things interesting. The GFS is icnredibly steep with lapse rates through a very deep layer in mid troposphere. 300-700mb lapse rates >7c/km with the peak around the 500-700 layer near 7.5c/km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 With the cold wet record low week some are forecasting it would seem climo should be tossed with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 15z SPC SREF out to 42HR!!!!!!! Nice severe probs!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 There is something that does have me worried besides what we've already discussed. The Craven/Brooks sig severe parameter is not very impressive here at all tomorrow. It's much more impressive down across NYC through NJ. Thinking back to past events which have produced quite well and our more potent events usually you see the SPC SREF spit out at least 40,000. For tomorrow the 20,000 line barely gets into southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 There is something that does have me worried besides what we've already discussed. The Craven/Brooks sig severe parameter is not very impressive here at all tomorrow. It's much more impressive down across NYC through NJ. Thinking back to past events which have produced quite well and our more potent events usually you see the SPC SREF spit out at least 40,000. For tomorrow the 20,000 line barely gets into southern CT. You get too bogged down with numbers. Look at the setup and don't get too excited about any specific parameter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 You get too bogged down with numbers. Look at the setup and don't get too excited about any specific parameter. Yeah I do have a major fetish for numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Yeah I do have a major fetish for teen chipmunk mouthed pop stars Dude we know. First day of summer camp tomorrow. Hope they make a smart decision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Dude we know. First day of summer camp tomorrow. Hope they make a smart decision ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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