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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread III


CoastalWx

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Very odd the difference in 500-700mb lapse rates tomorrow between GFS and NAM around CT. NAM is like 5.5 c/km... GFS is 7.5 c/km.

My guess is the NAM is having some convective feedback issues and therefore messing with the amount of diabatic heating/latent heat release in certain portions of the atmosphere?

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Very odd the difference in 500-700mb lapse rates tomorrow between GFS and NAM around CT. NAM is like 5.5 c/km... GFS is 7.5 c/km.

My guess is the NAM is having some convective feedback issues and therefore messing with the amount of diabatic heating/latent heat release in certain portions of the atmosphere?

That would be a likely scenario.

NAM is also rather moist with the entire column and in the mid-levels so hard to sustain good lapse rates that way.

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I actually would split the difference. 6.5

NAM is actually on its own with a somewhat "wider" looking 500mb trough. The GFS/Euro are much sharper and keep strong mid level flow in place. Looks like the NAM is generating a spurious vort and screwing things up.

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NAM is actually on its own with a somewhat "wider" looking 500mb trough. The GFS/Euro are much sharper and keep strong mid level flow in place. Looks like the NAM is generating a spurious vort and screwing things up.

How do things look downstream? I didn't look, but were 12z soundings good further west? It just seems like climo wouldn't support lapse rates like what the GFS has. I could see 6.5 to maybe 7.

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How do things look downstream? I didn't look, but were 12z soundings good further west? It just seems like climo wouldn't support lapse rates like what the GFS has. I could see 6.5 to maybe 7.

I don't know that trough is really impressive that's diving south and sharpening. Getting something like that near July 1 always interests me since water temps can actually help advect solid dews north.

Climo says this kind of synoptic setup is unusual.

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I don't know that trough is really impressive that's diving south and sharpening. Getting something like that near July 1 always interests me since water temps can actually help advect solid dews north.

Climo says this kind of synoptic setup is unusual.

I totally agree the setup is unusual. It just seems like such high lapse rates are difficult to achieve in this setup. I wouldn't rule it out I guess, but wash was thinking 6.5-7 maybe. Either way, the setup is really cool to have.

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I totally agree the setup is unusual. It just seems like such high lapse rates are difficult to achieve in this setup. I wouldn't rule it out I guess, but wash was thinking 6.5-7 maybe. Either way, the setup is really cool to have.

We get these in May before we can cash in. Something like this around this time certainly makes things interesting.

The GFS is icnredibly steep with lapse rates through a very deep layer in mid troposphere. 300-700mb lapse rates >7c/km with the peak around the 500-700 layer near 7.5c/km.

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There is something that does have me worried besides what we've already discussed. The Craven/Brooks sig severe parameter is not very impressive here at all tomorrow. It's much more impressive down across NYC through NJ. Thinking back to past events which have produced quite well and our more potent events usually you see the SPC SREF spit out at least 40,000. For tomorrow the 20,000 line barely gets into southern CT.

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There is something that does have me worried besides what we've already discussed. The Craven/Brooks sig severe parameter is not very impressive here at all tomorrow. It's much more impressive down across NYC through NJ. Thinking back to past events which have produced quite well and our more potent events usually you see the SPC SREF spit out at least 40,000. For tomorrow the 20,000 line barely gets into southern CT.

You get too bogged down with numbers. Look at the setup and don't get too excited about any specific parameter.

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