CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 I'm not sure if the GFS is correct with the instability. The SREFs aren't as bullish which makes sense given this setup. But, mid levels will cool and will help offset that a bit. If we can get a little heating, looks like it could be a good dew wx wise with some strong or severe tstms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Tor threat tomorrow? I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nate Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Photos from yesterday storm at Gurnet Point in Plymouth, end of Duxbury Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I'm not sure if the GFS is correct with the instability. The SREFs aren't as bullish which makes sense given this setup. But, mid levels will cool and will help offset that a bit. If we can get a little heating, looks like it could be a good dew wx wise with some strong or severe tstms. The SPC SREF does have 30% probs of 2000 J/KG of Cape so I guess it isn't all too impossible. The thing is with this setup will be the steep mid-level lapse rates with really cold 500mb temps so we probably won't need to see as much heating as we normally would to generate those instability values. We'll see...setups like this with lots of cloud cover don't usually produce widespread severe but every once and a while they can "overproduce" but you usually can't tell until the day of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Wow...those are great pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well the new day 2 looks to be out according to the time, however, the text isn't updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well the new day 2 looks to be out according to the time, however, the text isn't updated. slgt risk from HFD on south. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 southern CT in a slight risk!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 southern CT in a slight risk!!! Are you going chasing tommorow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 slgt risk from HFD on south. AWT. No mention of Tor's either...AEEKT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Are you going chasing tommorow? Only thing I'll be chasing tomorrow are little kids at work. I start full time summer camp job tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Better Tor threat than anything else tomorrow. When Ryan is excited its time to pay attn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Only thing I'll be chasing tomorrow are little kids at work. I start full time summer camp job tomorrow. I did one of those jobs last summer. It sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I did one of those jobs last summer. It sucked. I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 CEF and north meh as the way its been going ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Better Tor threat than anything else tomorrow. When Ryan is excited its time to pay attn I'm interested but not overly excited yet. A convoluted threat but it's an interesting setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I love it. Good for you then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Better Tor threat than anything else tomorrow. When Ryan is excited its time to pay attn Disagree. There really isn't one piece of guidance suggestive of tornado potential. Damaging winds are likely the main threat...now if any single cells get going there will be a threat for large hail due to very cold temps aloft/steep lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well since there is still another 3 hours until the 15z SPC SREF comes out perfect time to go to the mall and get my check. Total trip will probably take 3 hours or so. No bus to the mall today so I'll either take a 66 up the road to Stop and Shop and walk from there (would be 30 minute walk or so) or just flat out walk to the mall which is about a 55 minute walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Disagree. There really isn't one piece of guidance suggestive of tornado potential. Damaging winds are likely the main threat...now if any single cells get going there will be a threat for large hail due to very cold temps aloft/steep lapse rates. I don't think the tornado threat is zero. decent LLJ and any place where winds are locally backed and you can increase low level helicity you could see a spin up. We're getting way ahead of ourselves though because there's a lot that's way up in the air including timing, amount of instability, and storm mode. All of our svr wx threats are convoluted... and this one is even more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 I'm interested but not overly excited yet. A convoluted threat but it's an interesting setup. I think it's interesting as well. The SREFs did target srn CT as well in the late morning, so no surprise about the Slight risk. But, areas north and east still look in the game, especially if we get some sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I think it's interesting as well. The SREFs did target srn CT as well in the late morning, so no surprise about the Slight risk. But, areas north and east still look in the game, especially if we get some sun. Agreed. Maybe even a 2 round kind of deal? I would probably have included most of C/E Mass and RI in slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 This is my fav pic of the ones you posted, awesome. I love that picture--awesome! slgt risk from HFD on south. AWT. Enjoy southerners. It would be nice to see if we can something going pre-dawn. Nothing like a good light show and loud thunder to wake up to. Actually, there are better things. But thunder and lightning ain't bad. Shawl weather on the deck. Nice and warm out in the sun. 76.8/53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I don't think the tornado threat is zero. decent LLJ and any place where winds are locally backed and you can increase low level helicity you could see a spin up. We're getting way ahead of ourselves though because there's a lot that's way up in the air including timing, amount of instability, and storm mode. All of our svr wx threats are convoluted... and this one is even more so. It certainly isn't zero but I wouldn't go out and say there is a tornado threat tomorrow. If BL winds can back a bit more than we would certainly see more in the way of helicity. Another issue would be storm mode should mainly be more linear or cluster like. If we were to see a spinup it would probably be something like we saw in Bridgeport 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Agreed. Maybe even a 2 round kind of deal? I would probably have included most of C/E Mass and RI in slight risk. Yeah that's what SPC WRF had fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Nate, those are the clouds we had further down at Scusset Beach. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Tuesday storms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well since there is still another 3 hours until the 15z SPC SREF comes out perfect time to go to the mall and get my check. Total trip will probably take 3 hours or so. No bus to the mall today so I'll either take a 66 up the road to Stop and Shop and walk from there (would be 30 minute walk or so) or just flat out walk to the mall which is about a 55 minute walk. Why do you always feel the need to give us details of what your're doing everyday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Why do you always feel the need to give us details of what your're doing everyday? LOL Makes me think of this........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Euro was a soaker for srn ME...even NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.