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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread III


CoastalWx

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Lol Ryan. Good write up. I also think the winds from that came more from the west or wsw based in the way the trees came down. Neighbors on both sides of me also lost trees in backyard that I had not seen till they pointed out to me today

That makes sense. You said the worst was a bit west of you so the center of the downburst was likely a bit west of you and you had a period of 40-50 knot gusts out of the west as the rain cooled air rushed eastward.

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That makes sense. You said the worst was a bit west of you so the center of the downburst was likely a bit west of you and you had a period of 40-50 knot gusts out of the west as the rain cooled air rushed eastward.

Pretty cool how that all played out yesterday . All you hear today around here are chainsaws and leaf blowers. I had to have my buddy come saw the tree up. Too heavy to lift. Now let's see if we can get some hailers today lol
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Just got home from work.

Hopefully those colder mid-level temps/associated steeper mid-level lapse rates can work in here a little faster.

It's quite unstable over NYS b/c of those 6.5 C/KM to 7 C/KM mid-level lapse rates, however temperatures/dewpoints are nearly 10F less than they are over SNE.

If we can get those lapse rates to move in I think we'll see SBcapes increase to around 2000-2500 J/KG along with MLcape values in the 1500-2000 J/KG and probably see LI values as low as -6C.

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So you think that was a macro and not micro burst?

Depends on how wide the area of damage was. I get the feeling a lot of the damage was due to a relatively large area of 40-50 knot winds. I'll say downburst just to be safe.

In a microburst it's usually a specific neighborhood (a smaller area) that gets clobbered not parts of several towns.

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Depends on how wide the area of damage was. I get the feeling a lot of the damage was due to a relatively large area of 40-50 knot winds. I'll say downburst just to be safe.

In a microburst it's usually a specific neighborhood (a smaller area) that gets clobbered not parts of several towns.

Yeah this was a 2 mile radius on NW side of town. Fairly narrow in width though if you drew a straight line with pockets of more damage than other areas in that line
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These more westerly sfc winds are really starting to mix out the dewpoints some.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

205 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...

DRIER AIR WITH LOWER DEW POINTS DOWN IN THE 40S IN SOUTHEAST

CANADA...HAS BEEN ADVECTING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON

NORTHERN WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...SO DECREASE IN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION

WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

image24.png

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With such strong 0-6km shear values shear may actually be a bit too strong and with the lack of stronger Cape updrafts may being tilted too much and this would prevent updrafts from penetrating the atmosphere high enough to really tap into the cold air aloft and such. Need more cape to get more mature updrafts.

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85 here down the road from bob. Cool sky today

Doesn't look good for storms. I have come to learn the local climo and the thunderstorms split around this area - they either head for the NH/MA border or north towards CON. Cold-pool and w or nw flow helps, maybe we'll see a hailer.

Car thermo read 92 at 200' el in Manchester/Bedford on 101. Torch. lol It was probably 86 or 87.

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