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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread III


CoastalWx

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Cells are starting to pop over the Western maine mtns and foothills, I like the chances for severe here with storms developing to my SW

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

1054 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-232100-

NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-

SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-

INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-

COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-

COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-

NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-

MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-

COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDOVER...ROXBURY...UPTON...

WILSONS MILLS...COBURN GORE...RANGELEY...KINGFIELD...BINGHAM...

JACKMAN...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...FARMINGTON...

WILTON...MADISON...SKOWHEGAN...PITTSFIELD...SANFORD...BERWICK...

NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...LEWISTON-AUBURN...

LIVERMORE FALLS...AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...WINTERPORT...UNITY...

BIDDEFORD...SACO...OLD ORCHARD BEACH...KITTERY...PORTLAND...

SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...BATH...TOPSHAM...BOOTHBAY HARBOR...

WISCASSET...WALDOBORO...CAMDEN...ROCKLAND...THOMASTON...BELFAST...

LINCOLNVILLE...COLEBROOK...BERLIN...LANCASTER...LITTLETON...

NORTH CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO...

OSSIPEE...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN...CONCORD...

HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...DOVER...SALEM...

DERRY...EXETER...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON

1054 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEW

HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE EXISTS FOR THIS

AFTERNOON. THE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS

TO POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ALL OUTDOOR INTERESTS SHOULD SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR RAPIDLY

CHANGING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER

APPROACHES SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

ALL MARINE INTERESTS ON THE LAKES AND OCEAN SHOULD ALSO BE

PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR OF

POSSIBLE IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER

UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$$

MARINE

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mcd1251.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1251

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1042 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...VT...PORTIONS NRN/ERN NY...NWRN MA...MOST OF

NH...PARTS OF WRN/NRN MAINE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231542Z - 231815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR AT LEAST MRGL SVR HAIL OVER

PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NY. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD/SHIFT EWD ACROSS

HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND OVER NRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH TIME THROUGH

MID-AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VIS AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES GROWING DEEP

CONVECTION...INITIALLY AND MAINLY OVER ADIRONDACKS REGION ENEWD TO

NWRN/CENTRAL MAINE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF QUE WHERE INSOLATION OF

HIGHER TERRAIN IS PREFERENTIALLY WEAKENING MLCINH. THIS TREND

SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AMIDST DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC

DESTABILIZATION. BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS

POST-FRONTAL...BUT CONTAINS SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT

CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF

MORE MID-UPPER LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. MORNING ALB SOUNDING SHOWED

TWO SUBSTANTIALLY STABLE LAYERS ALOFT...IN 600-700 MB LAYER AND IN

400-500 MB LAYER...NET RESULT BEING NEGLIGIBLE CAPE WHEN CONSIDERING

JUST THAT. HOWEVER...THERMAL ANALYSES SHOWED COLD MID-UPPER LEVEL

AIR JUST UPSTREAM...RELATED TO FIELD OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/DCVA THAT

IMMEDIATELY PRECEDES STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER W-CENTRAL NY. THAT

ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WAS BETTER SAMPLED BY BUF RAOB. MODIFYING ALB

SOUNDING FOR LOW-LEVEL HEATING/MIXING AND BUF MID-UPPER THERMAL

PROFILE OFFERS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SETTING...WITH 7.5 DEG C/KM

700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ATOP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC DEW

POINTS STILL UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 F. THIS YIELDS MLCAPE IN

500-1000 J/KG RANGE...CONSISTENT WITH VALUES OBTAINED FROM RR/ETA-KF

FCST SOUNDINGS THERE. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ORGANIZATION OF SVR

THREAT WILL INCLUDE WEAKNESS OF LOW-LEVEL MASS

CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND LACK OF RICHER

THETAE IN LOW LEVELS. UPPER/ANVIL LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE

STG...HOWEVER...AIDING IN STORM-SCALE VENTILATION.

..EDWARDS/WEISS.. 06/23/2012

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Looks like PWM has a shot at the all time wettest June

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

1201 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 10PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE

REGION. WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF

THE AREA YESTERDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH

FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-NHZ001>006-009-010-240015-

/O.NEW.KGYX.FF.A.0002.120623T1601Z-120624T0200Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-

SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-

INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-

NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-

SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDOVER...ROXBURY...UPTON...

WILSONS MILLS...COBURN GORE...RANGELEY...KINGFIELD...BINGHAM...

JACKMAN...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...FARMINGTON...

WILTON...MADISON...SKOWHEGAN...PITTSFIELD...SANFORD...BERWICK...

NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...LEWISTON-AUBURN...

LIVERMORE FALLS...AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...WINTERPORT...UNITY...

COLEBROOK...BERLIN...LANCASTER...LITTLETON...NORTH CONWAY...

LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO...OSSIPEE...LACONIA...

MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...DOVER

1201 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND NEW

HAMPSHIRE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN WESTERN MAINE...

ANDROSCOGGIN...CENTRAL SOMERSET...INTERIOR CUMBERLAND...

INTERIOR WALDO...INTERIOR YORK...KENNEBEC...NORTHERN

FRANKLIN...NORTHERN OXFORD...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN

OXFORD AND SOUTHERN SOMERSET. IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...BELKNAP...

NORTHERN CARROLL...NORTHERN COOS...NORTHERN GRAFTON...SOUTHERN

CARROLL...SOUTHERN COOS...SOUTHERN GRAFTON AND STRAFFORD.

* UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING

* SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE

LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT

PERIOD OF TIME.

* FLOODING OF SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS ROAD

WASHOUTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD

TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION

SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

POHL

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Almost 4 hours to clean everything up and it still needs to be mowed. NICe Cu field forming to the NW.

Looks like a nice line of storms heading SE that should get just about all of us with a storm later

We think were gonna have to call a pro to take down the tree that fell.

Did you see that video I took? Did it look like that in your hood?

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Almost 4 hours to clean everything up and it still needs to be mowed. NICe Cu field forming to the NW.

Looks like a nice line of storms heading SE that should get just about all of us with a storm later

Doesn't seem to be much inhibitory activity so yes. Was thinking of heading to the beach but perhaps tomorrow is a better bet given the preferred location often gets rocked in these setups. Storms fringed me yesterday but Kevin you had quite the wx weenie week!

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