Baroclinic Zone Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Why do temp-talk threads always become disasterous? It's now become a geography lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Why do temp-talk threads always become disasterous? because it's full of insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Isit poss for bos pvd or orh to finish above? ORH was at -0.7 not including yesterday (has not been posted yet...seems late) Yesterday was probably at or a little below normal? Again, I think it depends on the moisture content of the airmass and how low it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 It's now become a geography lesson. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Because weenies get involved. again????????????? nobody is saying anything other than July is a warm month. Is that not an accurate guess???????? Our bet this week will be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 LOL at the MET #s for tomorrow. wth? 101 / 100 at BDL/BOS ??? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 This thread is awesome. Its entertainment value is decent. Blue skies and warming in peabody ma this am. . Right next to cabaret and golden banana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think I will start an obs thread for this imprending torch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. yep. i thought they stood a chc last go around...this time...i just don't see that being even close. MAV at BOS is 85F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 JB hedging a bit on his cooler summer idea--says building trough on the west coast could steer the summer to something similar to 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 lol I deal with geography every day and he tries to give me a lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 No dews at 70 at BDL in the evening/overnight Lows should be in the low 60s for the next couple of days there Lol what??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 BDL normals are 83/61 just as a point of reference. 90 is as much of a torch as 40 is in January. 95+ is a torch, and unless we are going to see lots of those 80 degree lows that I always see predicted for BDL, it's gonna be tough to bang out huge positive departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Anyways Friday through Sunday should be great summer wx, as long as clouds don't screw up too much of tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Lol what??? You are right...low to mid 60s 62-67, ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 it is pretty funny how things get spun. BDL has had 19 days AOB this month. only 7 above (and only the heat wave had any double digits) it's basically the same story at BOS and ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Anyways Friday through Sunday should be great summer wx, as long as clouds don't screw up too much of tomorrow morning. looks pretty good right into next week too. 70s/80s and not a ton of humidity...looks like a nice stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Well there's 2 lines of thought as we move thru Torchuly .. 1) the ridge axis shifts west allowing for weak gentle trough ing and fro pas in the NE and 2)ridge axis shifts north and east and we get into a much above normal pattern for the month with a lot of heat. Good luck to both groups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Well there's 2 lines of thought as we move thru Torchuly .. 1) the ridge axis shifts west allowing for weak gentle trough ing and fro pas in the NE and 2)ridge axis shifts north and east and we get into a much above normal pattern for the month with a lot of heat. Good luck to both groups I don't know about the last half of July. All I can say, is that models shift the anomaly west during the second week. I suppose it is possible it could oscillate east again for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 BDL normals are 83/61 just as a point of reference. 90 is as much of a torch as 40 is in January. 95+ is a torch, and unless we are going to see lots of those 80 degree lows that I always see predicted for BDL, it's gonna be tough to bang out huge positive departures. Yeah...the problem is "torch" has always been subjective so we should define it. I say it has to be at least +10F on the maxes. 90F at BDL in July is not an impressive feat. You're a stats guy so maybe you can take it a step further with daily SDs of +1.5 and +2.0 for each climo site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 LOL at the whole 90 is hot thing....3 days of 90 is a heat wave, but 3 days of 89 is not.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Yeah...the problem is "torch" has always been subjective so we should define it. I say it has to be at least +10F on the maxes. 90F at BDL in July is not an impressive feat. You're a stats guy so maybe you can take it a step further with daily SDs of +1.5 and +2.0 for each climo site. Agreed. For summer #3 of torch talk as we've decided before 95 in July is torch threshold. 90 in early July is sort of meh for BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Yeah...the problem is "torch" has always been subjective so we should define it. I say it has to be at least +10F on the maxes. 90F at BDL in July is not an impressive feat. You're a stats guy so maybe you can take it a step further with daily SDs of +1.5 and +2.0 for each climo site. High temp standard deviation is 7.0 this time of year at BDL, PVD, and ORH and 8.3 at BOS. Those are the NCDC published numbers from the 1981-2010 normals. In January those deviations go up 2-3 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 looks pretty good right into next week too. 70s/80s and not a ton of humidity...looks like a nice stretch. LaLalalalalalalalalalala lock that up. Nobody would complain about that. Perfect for all. I never understood why people want to sit in AC and say oh isn't it great that its 95/74. Lets have the BSE feature perfect weather for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Agreed. For summer #3 of torch talk as we've decided before 95 in July is torch threshold. 90 in early July is sort of meh for BDL. A 95 is hot but a 95/55 is that really a torch? You sit in the shade and it feels 10 degrees cooler, your house and Apts are cool. Torch weather to me in New England must take dew point into account. I understand the need to quantify thru stats perhaps we can through Snowman develop a SD threshold which includes DP. Most of us start to feel humidity is an issue at DPs of 62 and above so maybe that could be a low end threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 A 95 is hot but a 95/55 is that really a torch? You sit in the shade and it feels 10 degrees cooler, your house and Apts are cool. Torch weather to me in New England must take dew point into account. I understand the need to quantify thru stats perhaps we can through Snowman develop a SD threshold which includes DP. Most of us start to feel humidity is an issue at DPs of 62 and above so maybe that could be a low end threshold. Would Heat Index work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Would Heat Index work? The humidex is an index number used by Canadian meteorologists to describe how hot the weather feels to the average person, by combining the effect of heat and humidity. The humidex is a unit-less number based on thedew point, but it is equivalent to dry temperature in degrees Celsius. For example, if the temperature is 30 °C (86 °F), and the calculated humidex is 40, then it indicates the humid heat feels approximately like a dry temperature of40 °C (104 °F). The index is widely used in Canadian weather reports during summer. According to the Meteorological Service of Canada, a humidex of at least 30 causes "some discomfort", at least 40 causes "great discomfort" and above 45 is "dangerous". When the humidex hits 54, heat stroke is imminent. The current formula for determining the humidex (see below: Humidex formula) was developed by J.M. Masterton and F.A. Richardson of Canada's Atmospheric Environment Service in 1979. Humidex differs from the heat index used in the United States in being derived from the dew point rather than the relative humidity. 5*((6.112*10(7.5*T/(237.7+T))*H)-10) Humidex = T + -------------------------------- 9 where H is the percentage of humidity in the air and T is the temperature in degrees Celsius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Look a humidex calculator http://www.csgnetwork.com/canhumidexcalc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 For the life of me I dont understand why people are so against warmth, or saying its going to get warm. I've no problem with forecasting warm/hot weather if that's what the models are showing. I personally don't like the heat though as I find it very uncomfortable and difficult to get anything done in except for a dip in the lake. For the life of me, I don't understand how some actually enjoy hot weather. But, meterology and personal preferences are two very different things and ne'er the twain shall meet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Well there's 2 lines of thought as we move thru Torchuly .. 1) the ridge axis shifts west allowing for weak gentle trough ing and fro pas in the NE and 2)ridge axis shifts north and east and we get into a much above normal pattern for the month with a lot of heat. Good luck to both groups very unlikely the greatest ridging shifts out of the Central/Rockies where greatest heat/drought continues to build up...I'm not saying the Northeast won't be above normal with continued bursts of 90s..just dont expect the greatest heat to shift and persist into the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.