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Looking ahead to July 4th Wx..Ensembles warm to above normal


Damage In Tolland

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BDL normals are 83/61 just as a point of reference. 90 is as much of a torch as 40 is in January. 95+ is a torch, and unless we are going to see lots of those 80 degree lows that I always see predicted for BDL, it's gonna be tough to bang out huge positive departures.

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Well there's 2 lines of thought as we move thru Torchuly .. 1) the ridge axis shifts west allowing for weak gentle trough ing and fro pas in the NE and 2)ridge axis shifts north and east and we get into a much above normal pattern for the month with a lot of heat. Good luck to both groups

I don't know about the last half of July. All I can say, is that models shift the anomaly west during the second week. I suppose it is possible it could oscillate east again for a time.

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BDL normals are 83/61 just as a point of reference. 90 is as much of a torch as 40 is in January. 95+ is a torch, and unless we are going to see lots of those 80 degree lows that I always see predicted for BDL, it's gonna be tough to bang out huge positive departures.

Yeah...the problem is "torch" has always been subjective so we should define it. I say it has to be at least +10F on the maxes. 90F at BDL in July is not an impressive feat. You're a stats guy so maybe you can take it a step further with daily SDs of +1.5 and +2.0 for each climo site.
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Yeah...the problem is "torch" has always been subjective so we should define it. I say it has to be at least +10F on the maxes. 90F at BDL in July is not an impressive feat. You're a stats guy so maybe you can take it a step further with daily SDs of +1.5 and +2.0 for each climo site.

Agreed. For summer #3 of torch talk as we've decided before 95 in July is torch threshold. 90 in early July is sort of meh for BDL.

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Yeah...the problem is "torch" has always been subjective so we should define it. I say it has to be at least +10F on the maxes. 90F at BDL in July is not an impressive feat. You're a stats guy so maybe you can take it a step further with daily SDs of +1.5 and +2.0 for each climo site.

High temp standard deviation is 7.0 this time of year at BDL, PVD, and ORH and 8.3 at BOS. Those are the NCDC published numbers from the 1981-2010 normals. In January those deviations go up 2-3 degrees.

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looks pretty good right into next week too. 70s/80s and not a ton of humidity...looks like a nice stretch.

LaLalalalalalalalalalala lock that up. Nobody would complain about that. Perfect for all. I never understood why people want to sit in AC and say oh isn't it great that its 95/74. Lets have the BSE feature perfect weather for all.

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Agreed. For summer #3 of torch talk as we've decided before 95 in July is torch threshold. 90 in early July is sort of meh for BDL.

A 95 is hot but a 95/55 is that really a torch? You sit in the shade and it feels 10 degrees cooler, your house and Apts are cool. Torch weather to me in New England must take dew point into account. I understand the need to quantify thru stats perhaps we can through Snowman develop a SD threshold which includes DP. Most of us start to feel humidity is an issue at DPs of 62 and above so maybe that could be a low end threshold.

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A 95 is hot but a 95/55 is that really a torch? You sit in the shade and it feels 10 degrees cooler, your house and Apts are cool. Torch weather to me in New England must take dew point into account. I understand the need to quantify thru stats perhaps we can through Snowman develop a SD threshold which includes DP. Most of us start to feel humidity is an issue at DPs of 62 and above so maybe that could be a low end threshold.

Would Heat Index work?

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Would Heat Index work?

The humidex is an index number used by Canadian meteorologists to describe how hot the weather feels to the average person, by combining the effect of heat and humidity. The humidex is a unit-less number based on thedew point, but it is equivalent to dry temperature in degrees Celsius. For example, if the temperature is 30 °C (86 °F), and the calculated humidex is 40, then it indicates the humid heat feels approximately like a dry temperature of40 °C (104 °F). The index is widely used in Canadian weather reports during summer.

According to the Meteorological Service of Canada, a humidex of at least 30 causes "some discomfort", at least 40 causes "great discomfort" and above 45 is "dangerous". When the humidex hits 54, heat stroke is imminent.

The current formula for determining the humidex (see below: Humidex formula) was developed by J.M. Masterton and F.A. Richardson of Canada's Atmospheric Environment Service in 1979. Humidex differs from the heat index used in the United States in being derived from the dew point rather than the relative humidity.

5*((6.112*10(7.5*T/(237.7+T))*H)-10)

Humidex = T + --------------------------------

9

where H is the percentage of humidity in the air and T is the temperature in degrees Celsius.

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For the life of me I dont understand why people are so against warmth, or saying its going to get warm.

I've no problem with forecasting warm/hot weather if that's what the models are showing.

I personally don't like the heat though as I find it very uncomfortable and difficult to get anything done in except for a dip in the lake. For the life of me, I don't understand how some actually enjoy hot weather. But, meterology and personal preferences are two very different things and ne'er the twain shall meet. ;)

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Well there's 2 lines of thought as we move thru Torchuly .. 1) the ridge axis shifts west allowing for weak gentle trough ing and fro pas in the NE and 2)ridge axis shifts north and east and we get into a much above normal pattern for the month with a lot of heat. Good luck to both groups

very unlikely the greatest ridging shifts out of the Central/Rockies where greatest heat/drought continues to build up...I'm not saying the Northeast won't be above normal with continued bursts of 90s..just dont expect the greatest heat to shift and persist into the Northeast

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