Brian5671 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 JB talks about a backdoor front cooling us off this weekend--does anyone see this a a backdoor front deal or just a failure of the heat to push north and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 This is gross. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAFLOAT_18z/f27.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 This is gross. http://www.meteo.psu...OAT_18z/f27.gif I don't believe I've ever seen 30C 850s over Indiana and Illinois...that map is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think August will be a subnormal month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 MET now with 100 for BOS on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Wfella. Cmon no way. friday 19c 850s at 19z at bos. Maybe 95 w or nw winds but that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Wfella. Cmon no way. friday 19c 850s at 19z at bos. Maybe 95 w or nw winds but that's it Just reporting wht NAM is putting out. Widespread 100+. I see it as a signal that Friday will have little trouble heating with dry air but we'll see. I'm heading south for the weekend to roast.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Pretty much AWT..Even next weeks warm down is still AN..FTW SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND A PIECE OF THIS HEAT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL HELP TO SET UP MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NE WHICH WILL SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO THE S EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS MOVING INTO THE REGION...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 July 2012 Forecast: Despite the likely emergence of an El Niño event in July, the month will likely be uncharacteristically warm. In fact, when one considers the likely ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of +1.0°C or above, the warmth that appears likely will be exceptional. Key Assumptions: • An El Niño event will develop in July • The AO will likely be near neutral (with variability in negative and positive ranges) • The PNA will likely be near neutral. The top analog was 2002. The charts on which my July idea is based are: Top Left: Analogs for July 2012 Top Right: July 2002 Bottom Left: CFSv2 Forecast for July Bottom Right: Observed decadal temperature trend In addition, if one considers the exceptionally warm spring (March-May 2012 ranked 1st in the CONUS) and warm June nationwide (a top 30 or warmer June appears likely) with ENSO Region 3.4 temperatures in the +27.25°C to +28.25°C range for June, one comes up with the following cases: 1934, 1936, 1977, 1994, 2006, and 2010. That situation has favored widespread heat in July, particularly in the Central Plains. Factoring in the continued abnormal warmth in the Arctic, the analog situation of a large area of cool anomalies across Canada appears very unlikely. As a result, the magnitude of warmth could be even greater than what the analog cases suggest. Based on the prevalent conditions in the Arctic region, observed decadal trend, warm spring/warm June cases, analogs, and CFSv2, my thoughts are as follows: - Most of North America will likely be warmer than normal. - An area the Southern/Central Plains and then eastward through the Great Lakes into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic/parts of the Northeastern U.S. could be much warmer than normal - Most of Canada will likely be warmer than normal. The most impressive warmth could be located in northernmost Canada and also southern Ontario (including the Toronto Metro Area) - Cool anomalies are likely to be confined to the immediate U.S. West Coast and the Pacific coast of Canada Man Donny just roasts us in July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Yeah, lots of signs point to a return to AN for a while...terrible, just terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Yeah, lots of signs point to a return to AN for a while...terrible, just terrible http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgYqIvnPvqQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Yeah, lots of signs point to a return to AN for a while...terrible, just terrible So much for the pattern change. Oh well it was fun while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The vortex is showing some resiliency in the Gulf of AK. This of course allows us to stay warm. I'm worried now because this feature may have some legs. Otoh, anyone still up for Valdez in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think everyone thought July looked AN even a week ago. Alternating between AN and normal for the first 10 days or so while the relentless heat and + departures stay to our SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think everyone thought July looked AN even a week ago. Alternating between AN and normal for the first 10 days or so while the relentless heat and + departures stay to our SW. Yep.The true torch stays away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Yep.The true torch stays away. But is there much to keep it from shifting just a leeeeeettle bit NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 It does look a bit trough-y after the weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 But is there much to keep it from shifting just a leeeeeettle bit NE? I think it's going to go as we thought all along. Sure they'll be burst of warmth for a couple of days, but then it cools down closer to normal before maybe another push. So AN, but the persistent heat stays southwest. I also see signs of a front setting up to out south after the 10th or 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think Dons ideas are the way to go for July. Everything had busted warm this week and trended upwards. Only Sat was supposed to be hot, now it's today thru At least Sunday that hits 90 at BDL. The cool downs that come with these fronts are still above normal . With Canada wasay above normal there's just no source for cool. Look for a pretty brutal month for us as Don and Roger are forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think Dons ideas are the way to go for July. Everything had busted warm this week and trended upwards. Only Sat was supposed to be hot, now it's today thru At least Sunday that hits 90 at BDL. The cool downs that come with these fronts are still above normal . With Canada wasay above normal there's just no source for cool. Look for a pretty brutal month for us as Don and Roger are forecasting. You didn't read his fine print when he said possibly parts of the northeast. Reading comprehension FTL. This area will be protected from the biggest heat. And Saturday was not supposed to be the only hottest day. Friday-Sunday were the warmest and always have been. Look at the models for once. Stuff this into your pipe. Biggest heat WILL NOT EFFECT SNE. I'm still waiting for your above normal June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think Dons ideas are the way to go for July. Everything had busted warm this week and trended upwards. Only Sat was supposed to be hot, now it's today thru At least Sunday that hits 90 at BDL. The cool downs that come with these fronts are still above normal . With Canada wasay above normal there's just no source for cool. Look for a pretty brutal month for us as Don and Roger are forecasting. Indeed my TT. BDR was a +1 yesterday, was + on sat and sun, - on mon and tues. So -two +5 in the week of doom and gloom. Looking ahead, I see this death ridge slowly building north and east, I think July ranges from +2-+4 in sne, highest west lower east. While we will not taste the hottest of the flame, it will still be plenty warm. Let the flame tickle your nape, dance around the circle of sizzle. 16 months in a row of above normal temps at BDR, July will be 17. Is this impressive yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The natural progression of things suggests that the death ridge shifts east in August. Ala 2002. Now if winter follows the same progression we all are happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The natural progression of things suggests that the death ridge shifts east in August. Ala 2002. Now if winter follows the same progression we all are happy. I highly doubt we will have a month like that August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 You didn't read his fine print when he said possibly parts of the northeast. Reading comprehension FTL. This area will be protected from the biggest heat. And Saturday was not supposed to be the only hottest day. Friday-Sunday were the warmest and always have been. Look at the models for once. Stuff this into your pipe. Biggest heat WILL NOT EFFECT SNE. I'm still waiting for your above normal June. Parts of the northeast DOES mean us you buffoon. You just choose to think it doesn't. When we're discussing BDL being a lOck for AN this month last week, the talk was that it would only happen if Sat torched. Now we have a 4-5 day torch and BDL may come in with a plus 1. Go with cooler forecasts if you choose, but they will not be correct. No one is saying the biggest heat is in SNE, just that it's hot and well above normal overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I highly doubt we will have a month like that August. Wanna bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Parts of the northeast DOES mean us you buffoon. You just choose to think it doesn't. When we're discussing BDL being a lOck for AN this month last week, the talk was that it would only happen in Sat torched. Now we have a 4-5 day torch and BDL may come in with a plus 1. Go with cooler forecasts if you choose, but they will not be correct. No one is saying the biggest heat is in SNE, just that it's hot and well above normal overall What a mean streak in you. And LOL at your interpretation. The northeast is usually considered Philly on northeast. When he means parts of the northeast he is referring to especially those areas. Why don't you PM him to confirm, chief. Meteorology, not weenieorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 For the life of me I dont understand why people are so against warmth, or saying its going to get warm. EVERYTHING points to above normal, to think otherwise is insanity. NOBODY is saying we see the hottest and thank god, thats too hot even for me. Half day, then to the beach kid free, have the best day you have ever had in your life. I am off to enjoy my above normal week. God Bless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Wanna bet? Sure, but I need to know what Aug 2002 was for temps first. I don't know where to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 What a mean streak in you. And LOL at your interpretation. The northeast is usually considered Philly on northeast. When he means parts of the northeast he is referring to especially those areas. Why don't you PM him to confirm, chief. Meteorology, not weenieorology. Lol Philly is the mid Atlantic. NYC north is the northeast. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Sure, but I need to know what Aug 2002 was for temps first. I don't know where to find it. I'll try later to find something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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