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Looking ahead to July 4th Wx..Ensembles warm to above normal


Damage In Tolland

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I agree with MRG and Ginx. It looks like an above normal pattern... but nothing extreme and actually pretty nice!

As long as MRG and Ginx don't start saying it's abnormally cool or Arctic like I'm on their bandwagon.

I don't see this going down as some "Mother of all Torches". Seems like quintessential New England Summer weather. Changeable, some hot days, some cool days with rain, but mostly weather that falls right in the sweet spot of normal. This notion that the weather is always going to be extreme flies in the face of all that the science of meteorology has taught us. I blame MTV and the National Enquirer for some how hurting Blizz during his formative years. Sad.

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I don't see this going down as some "Mother of all Torches". Seems like quintessential New England Summer weather. Changeable, some hot days, some cool days with rain, but mostly weather that falls right in the sweet spot of normal. This notion that the weather is always going to be extreme flies in the face of all that the science of meteorology has taught us. I blame MTV and the National Enquirer for some how hurting Blizz during his formative years. Sad.

Not for nothing...as much as you like to tweak us flatlanders with your never-ending winter and no summer at 2000' posts, I agree. A few hot days here and there in the summer is not a torch. On the other hand, it does get hot in SNE, and sometimes, winters are not cold and snowy for most of SNE.

I'm thinking of opening a few Walmarts, some Targets, a Starbucks and a Panera Bread on the eastern slopes. Hopefully the urbas sprawl will follow so we can invade your mecca. Nothing personal.

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Not for nothing...as much as you like to tweak us flatlanders with your never-ending winter and no summer at 2000' posts, I agree. A few hot days here and there in the summer is not a torch. On the other hand, it does get hot in SNE, and sometimes, winters are not cold and snowy for most of SNE.

I'm thinking of opening a few Walmarts, some Targets, a Starbucks and a Panera Bread on the eastern slopes. Hopefully the urbas sprawl will follow so we can invade your mecca. Nothing personal.

No worries, I'll be living in AK full time in the next few years. You're going to have a tough time getting past the strict zoning laws and the "concerned citizen" groups that will spring up as soon as your intentions are known. Also, those big box stores rely on foot traffic and that's going to be hard to come by in this sparsely populated region.I thought you city slicker, flatlander types were good at this sort of thing. I do agree that a warm day here and there does not constitute a torch. Blizz is the boy who cried torch. Funny, I can't remember a Winter here that wasn't cold with snow.

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The pattern going forward looks chilly. This weekend looks chilly, next week looks chilly and July certainly looks chilly.

Its been a chilly 16 months, its been a chilly 2012, no reason chilly wont chill anymore. Stay warm my friends, its chilly.

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The pattern going forward looks chilly. This weekend looks chilly, next week looks chilly and July certainly looks chilly.

Its been a chilly 16 months, its been a chilly 2012, no reason chilly wont chill anymore. Stay warm my friends, its chilly.

AC on full blast this morning....BDR is a full 0.7 above normal...torch...warmest year ever

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The pattern going forward looks chilly. This weekend looks chilly, next week looks chilly and July certainly looks chilly.

Its been a chilly 16 months, its been a chilly 2012, no reason chilly wont chill anymore. Stay warm my friends, its chilly.

I closed my windows this morning

67F for a high yesterday

I hope it warms up soon

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or just post about reality.

I would but that reality would be warm, and nobody likes the facts about how warm its been for the last 16 months. Nobody wants to hear about how Boston missed the all time snowless record by a tenth. Or that this is 16 above normal for bdr 14 to 15 out of 16 for the majors including last June that was an epic -0.1. Scooter certainly does not want to be reminded of his 10.7.

Reality? OKX has tomorrow normal, then above normal th-sun, next week looks above average, see how I am not using the word TORCH, but simply above average. With a mega death ridge so close, we will taste the flame not sure yet how much but we will, and July will be above normal.

I am sorry my reality is different than yours, and I am sorry that you hate it so much, and that you hate my posting style, and you hate how all I do is talk about the things that I love, like the sun, and heat and humidity and my fascination with this incredible WEATHER streak thats going on at BDR that has now bested anything prior by 4 months. But, thats what I love snow...............and sun, and since it did not snow much last winter I have been talking about what has been going on Phillip, sun and warmth, record highs, seasonal all time records like last summer fall and this winter, and potential all time yearly records.

Feels nice out there this morning though!

60/48

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Now this is hot. Prelim disco yesterday from Roth, one of our upcoming speakers this year.

LOCATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE

VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS ARE EXPECTED TO

BAKE...SIZZLE...AND FRY THIS PERIOD DUE TO A BURGEONING WARM CORE

RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS THE HOTTEST

OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN EQUALLY

IMPRESSIVE. TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...WE FOLLOWED

A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF. TEMPERATURES AT

THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 27C/82F...WHICH WOULD

EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 110F EACH AFTERNOON. IF DEBBY

DEPARTS FASTER THAN THE NHC FORECAST /OR REMAINS A STRONGER SYSTEM

THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED/ ALONG THE LINES OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z

ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN

MORE IMPRESSIVE IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-SOUTH.

ROTH

No sugar-coating that, WOW.

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Now this is hot. Prelim disco yesterday from Roth, one of our upcoming speakers this year.

LOCATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE

VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS ARE EXPECTED TO

BAKE...SIZZLE...AND FRY THIS PERIOD DUE TO A BURGEONING WARM CORE

RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS THE HOTTEST

OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN EQUALLY

IMPRESSIVE. TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...WE FOLLOWED

A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF. TEMPERATURES AT

THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 27C/82F...WHICH WOULD

EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 110F EACH AFTERNOON. IF DEBBY

DEPARTS FASTER THAN THE NHC FORECAST /OR REMAINS A STRONGER SYSTEM

THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED/ ALONG THE LINES OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z

ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN

MORE IMPRESSIVE IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-SOUTH.

ROTH

No sugar-coating that, WOW.

No need to. That's amazing heat there.

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I would but that reality would be warm, and nobody likes the facts about how warm its been for the last 16 months. Nobody wants to hear about how Boston missed the all time snowless record by a tenth. Or that this is 16 above normal for bdr 14 to 15 out of 16 for the majors including last June that was an epic -0.1. Scooter certainly does not want to be reminded of his 10.7.

Reality? OKX has tomorrow normal, then above normal th-sun, next week looks above average, see how I am not using the word TORCH, but simply above average. With a mega death ridge so close, we will taste the flame not sure yet how much but we will, and July will be above normal.

I am sorry my reality is different than yours, and I am sorry that you hate it so much, and that you hate my posting style, and you hate how all I do is talk about the things that I love, like the sun, and heat and humidity and my fascination with this incredible WEATHER streak thats going on at BDR that has now bested anything prior by 4 months. But, thats what I love snow...............and sun, and since it did not snow much last winter I have been talking about what has been going on Phillip, sun and warmth, record highs, seasonal all time records like last summer fall and this winter, and potential all time yearly records.

Feels nice out there this morning though!

60/48

:facepalm:

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Now this is hot. Prelim disco yesterday from Roth, one of our upcoming speakers this year.

LOCATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE

VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS ARE EXPECTED TO

BAKE...SIZZLE...AND FRY THIS PERIOD DUE TO A BURGEONING WARM CORE

RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS THE HOTTEST

OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN EQUALLY

IMPRESSIVE. TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...WE FOLLOWED

A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF. TEMPERATURES AT

THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 27C/82F...WHICH WOULD

EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 110F EACH AFTERNOON. IF DEBBY

DEPARTS FASTER THAN THE NHC FORECAST /OR REMAINS A STRONGER SYSTEM

THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED/ ALONG THE LINES OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z

ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN

MORE IMPRESSIVE IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-SOUTH.

ROTH

No sugar-coating that, WOW.

yeah that is some ridiculous heat. thank god that is staying SW of NE for the most part.

i think the 00z euro actually had a small 30C 850 contour show up over the lower apps at some point in the run. :axe:

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It's weird seeing a large area of 110s on multiple guidance for multiple days. The GFS yesterday had a weenie 45C at 2m in S AL on one day. Those progged 850s are nuts.

honestly, i couldn't imagine having to deal with that kind of heat...and then when you finally "cool down" it's like 90-100F. :lol:

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honestly, i couldn't imagine having to deal with that kind of heat...and then when you finally "cool down" it's like 90-100F. :lol:

Another reason to laugh when they say New England has such "severe" weather. Frankly, we are probably one of the more stable areas of the country when it comes to weather. Maybe PAC NW is more stable.

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