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Looking ahead to July 4th Wx..Ensembles warm to above normal


Damage In Tolland

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LOl at the same people who yesterday said the Euro screwed the pooch last weekend on the trough this weekend expounding on how correct it is for next weekend. The Ens are not anywhere near 100.

As mets have scolded you countless times, the ensembles are a smoothed out mean so they aren't going to show you the 100 degree heat. If you know how to use them, you'd know 100 is very possible next weekend

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Cold mongers I tell ya, cold mongers. que LL telling me what an absolute disgrace to humanity I am.

who cares, we are both at the beach enjoying life. Thats the thing, if you enjoy talking about a torch man up and get out in it! I love it, I live it, viva la summer!

Summer Of Steve!!!!!!

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who cares, we are both at the beach enjoying life. Thats the thing, if you enjoy talking about a torch man up and get out in it! I love it, I live it, viva la summer!

Summer Of Steve!!!!!!

Not yet, 8 hours left in the period. All packed leaving early AM for 18 days of hopefully stress free times.

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Op Euro had a +23 over SNe next Sat

OK...I looked at 18z 850s when I first looked through the run. 00z Sun does have a weenie 24C overhead around ORH so I suppose 21z temps would be around that 23C mark like you said. It's still out at d8-9 and the op tends to shave a couple C off over time so the ens mean 19-20C is probably more likely. I wouldn't mind getting a one day shot of extreme temps though so that we can at least say we joined the epic heat party at least in some way.
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OK...I looked at 18z 850s when I first looked through the run. 00z Sun does have a weenie 24C overhead around ORH so I suppose 21z temps would be around that 23C mark like you said. It's still out at d8-9 and the op tends to shave a couple C off over time so the ens mean 19-20C is probably more likely. I wouldn't mind getting a one day shot of extreme temps though so that we can at least say we joined the epic heat party at least in some way.

some party, millions without power in 95/72 heat, sounds like a blast.

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As mets have scolded you countless times, the ensembles are a smoothed out mean so they aren't going to show you the 100 degree heat. If you know how to use them, you'd know 100 is very possible next weekend

The plume major axis is directed further south across the east coast on the ens...it isn't just a smoothed mean thing.
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OK...I looked at 18z 850s when I first looked through the run. 00z Sun does have a weenie 24C overhead around ORH so I suppose 21z temps would be around that 23C mark like you said. It's still out at d8-9 and the op tends to shave a couple C off over time so the ens mean 19-20C is probably more likely. I wouldn't mind getting a one day shot of extreme temps though so that we can at least say we joined the epic heat party at least in some way.

I usually enjoy your posts. This one I just can't believe. Why in God's name would you want that ugliness?

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I usually enjoy your posts. This one I just can't believe. Why in God's name would you want that ugliness?

I like all extremes. I can do without a week of mid 90s, but one day of 100+ is fine with me. If it's going to be 95+ we may as well make it memorable like last July.
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Right the bigger heat is a little south of us..but they offer the shot at upper 90's-100 and Will posted they always tend to be a little cool at 850 on the mean

I thought you said 100+ at first? U90s-100 is more attainable, but it's not worth debating specifics of a d8 prog anyways. I suppose all that matters is that the high heat looks to make a return for next weekend. We've been on quite a streak for heat on the weekends with the cool downs coming during the week. That's the perfect way for a summer to play out.
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I thought you said 100+ at first? U90s-100 is more attainable, but it's not worth debating specifics of a d8 prog anyways. I suppose all that matters is that the high heat looks to make a return for next weekend. We've been on quite a streak for heat on the weekends with the cool downs coming during the week. That's the perfect way for a summer to play out.

I agree on that part. Have the high heat/humidity on the weekends when everyone can get out in it and enjoy it..and have the warm downs happen for a day or 2 during mid week

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After the warmer wx this weekend, models do show a cool down of sorts and a possible wetter pattern developing next week. This is as the heat ridge retros.

Looks like the SE(Atlantic Ridge) that HM was discussing might be building in to replace the midwest heat ridge. He may have nailed it. So we're left with a tropical , moist pattern with PM storms, and Bermuda blues.

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OK...I looked at 18z 850s when I first looked through the run. 00z Sun does have a weenie 24C overhead around ORH so I suppose 21z temps would be around that 23C mark like you said. It's still out at d8-9 and the op tends to shave a couple C off over time so the ens mean 19-20C is probably more likely. I wouldn't mind getting a one day shot of extreme temps though so that we can at least say we joined the epic heat party at least in some way.

If you knew how to read the ensembles you'd know that 100 is a very real possibility next weekend ;)

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Looks like the SE(Atlantic Ridge) that HM was discussing might be building in to replace the midwest heat ridge. He may have nailed it. So we're left with a tropical , moist pattern with PM storms, and Bermuda blues.

Why are you throwing his ideas around when you have no idea what he's referring to? Next week is nothng to do with a se ridge and he just had a scenario about later July.

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Why are you throwing his ideas around when you have no idea what he's referring to? Next week is nothng to do with a se ridge and he just had a scenario about later July.

He's trying too hard haha...or just turned into a bigger weenie in the summer than in the winter ;)

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You've gotten real nasty the last few weeks dude. WTF?

:lol:

I'm not nasty at all. You called me a buffoon the other day, remember? I'm still not sleeping well after that comment.

But I am serious, his thoughts were for later in the month and he probably doesn't want people throwing them around in an incorrect manner.

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:lol:

I'm not nasty at all. You called me a buffoon the other day, remember? I'm still not sleeping well after that comment.

But I am serious, his thoughts were for later in the month and he probably doesn't want people throwing them around in an incorrect manner.

LOL,classic.

82/56 here, beautiful. Probably makes it to 92-94.

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