bluewave Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjSD4sS87FM&feature=player_embedded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I've heard tell that the $2 billion estimate is a load of crock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 FWD says $400 million+... http://www.srh.noaa....d/?n=june132012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 FWD says $400 million+... http://www.srh.noaa....d/?n=june132012 That page was posted before the Insurance Council of Texas raised their estimates to 900 million yesterday. Data Source: Insurance Council of Texas Page last modified: June 15th 2012 3:17 PM http://www.bloomberg...-2-billion.html Jun 18, 2012 4:51 PM ET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Average home/business claim is $11,000, Auto is $4000-5000. You would need 100,000 homes/businesses damaged and about 175,000 vehicles damaged to get $2 billion. SIIS based their estimates off the volume of claims in the first 36 hours. If you used that metric for hurricane Irene, their damage estimate would've been $300,000. Making an estimate on a variable, moving target is incredibly short sighted. My estimate was $500 million based on 25,000 homes/businesses ($275 mil) and 45,000 autos ($225 mil). This is my estimate based on hail swaths, home & auto density in the zip codes inside the swath and hail size. EDIT: Noticed Insurance Council of Texas is at 25k Homes, 50k Autos. Most auto claims have settled now, 80% of home claims are settled in a week after a hailstorm. It's not going to be much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Average home/business claim is $11,000, Auto is $4000-5000. You would need 100,000 homes/businesses damaged and about 175,000 vehicles damaged to get $2 billion. SIIS based their estimates off the volume of claims in the first 36 hours. If you used that metric for hurricane Irene, their damage estimate would've been $300,000. Making an estimate on a variable, moving target is incredibly short sighted. My estimate was $500 million based on 25,000 homes/businesses ($275 mil) and 45,000 autos ($225 mil). This is my estimate based on hail swaths, home & auto density in the zip codes inside the swath and hail size. EDIT: Noticed Insurance Council of Texas is at 25k Homes, 50k Autos. Most auto claims have settled now, 80% of home claims are settled in a week after a hailstorm. It's not going to be much higher. Why do you disagree with the Texas Insurance Council if they say 900 million? You can see that they have increased it from the initial 400 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Why do you disagree with the Texas Insurance Council if they say 900 million? You can see that they have increased it from the initial 400 million. That was my initial estimate. Their dollar amount for claims is likely higher due to historical homes that were damaged. Generally costs more to repair these homes due to preservation laws, but many of the local governments are loosening these standards. I don't disagree with the $900 million estimate. It's much more accurate than the ludicrous SIIS estimate. Wouldn't surprise me to see the final numbers in the $700-900 million range. I don't see this as a billion dollar storm. Other billion dollar hailstorms had much longer swaths in areas that were more densely populated. About 40% of the Irving to Midlothian hail swath occurred over open green space and lakes. 25% of the east Dallas one was over open space as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 That was my initial estimate. Their dollar amount for claims is likely higher due to historical homes that were damaged. Generally costs more to repair these homes due to preservation laws, but many of the local governments are loosening these standards. I don't disagree with the $900 million estimate. It's much more accurate than the ludicrous SIIS estimate. Wouldn't surprise me to see the final numbers in the $700-900 million range. I don't see this as a billion dollar storm. Other billion dollar hailstorms had much longer swaths in areas that were more densely populated. About 40% of the Irving to Midlothian hail swath occurred over open green space and lakes. 25% of the east Dallas one was over open space as well. They said that half the automotive claims were complete losses and the damage alone on the historic Swiss Avenue may be millions of dollars. So I am not sure why you see $1 billion as a stretch. http://www.the33tv.c...4,0,92535.story http://www.wfaa.com/...-159071235.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 They said that half the automotive claims were complete losses and the damage alone on the historic Swiss Avenue may be 50 million dollars. So I am not sure why you see $1 billion as a stretch. http://www.the33tv.c...4,0,92535.story Key word being MAY be $50 million. Even complete auto losses are not relatively expensive....that's why the average auto claim is around $5000 (lots of high deductibles in DFW, not included in estimates). FWIW, volume of claims from this storm are only 50% of the volumes we saw in St Louis on 4/28 ($850 million in damage) and there is MORE exposure in Dallas. 65% of home claims are under $10,000. $1 billion is certainly a stretch. You would need a west to east swath through Fort Worth and/or Dallas to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 One thing to keep in mind is property values in Texas are much lower than many other areas of the US. This is one of the main reason people live and relocate in the Lone Star State and its metropolitan areas, along with our rather strong economic situation. As an example, a home that would be in the $500,000.00+ range along the EC or in some areas of California are actually appraised at 1/2 or less of what others would find beyond Texas. The areas actually affected by the hail storm was rather small in comparison to say a Joplin Tornado or Hurricane Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 One thing to keep in mind is property values in Texas are much lower than many other areas of the US. This is one of the main reason people live and relocate in the Lone Star State and its metropolitan areas, along with our rather strong economic situation. As an example, a home that would be in the $500,000.00+ range along the EC or in some areas of California are actually appraised at 1/2 or less of what others would find beyond Texas. The areas actually affected by the hail storm was rather small in comparison to say a Joplin Tornado or Hurricane Ike. Absolutely. On top of this, hail RARELY causes total losses to homes. Hurricane Ike and especially the Joplin tornado did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 One thing I learned from Hurricane Wilma is that it takes awhile to get a real estimate of the total damage, and even that will always be an approximation. People in official positions are saying guesses out loud which they probably shouldn't be doing. They're the ones who stand to lose from causing panic since investors will sell their stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 One thing I learned from Hurricane Wilma is that it takes awhile to get a real estimate of the total damage, and even that will always be an approximation. People in official positions are saying guesses out loud which they probably shouldn't be doing. Hailstorms are a much different beast than tornadoes or hurricanes. People can still live in their houses (with the help of some boards), widespread power & phone outages are rare, so people can contact their insurance cos quickly. In addition, there are TONS of adjusters in the DFW metroplex, so many claims are settled very quickly. You can make good estimates, but the problem is that one institute made a ridiculous claim based on faulty logic. The media loves big fat numbers and started running with that one instead of a much more accurate estimate from the Insurance Council of Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Hailstorms are a much different beast than tornadoes or hurricanes. People can still live in their houses (with the help of some boards), widespread power & phone outages are rare, so people can contact their insurance cos quickly. In addition, there are TONS of adjusters in the DFW metroplex, so many claims are settled very quickly. You can make good estimates, but the problem is that one institute made a ridiculous claim based on faulty logic. The media loves big fat numbers and started running with that one instead of a much more accurate estimate from the Insurance Council of Texas. I'm not so sure after my experience with the great south Florida hailstorm of 2011 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=12Jun2011), but I'll take your word for it since it looks like you specialize in this. I gotta feeling the only reason we're seeing every other insurance council put their guess in at this point is they were forced to by the $2 billion false estimate, which could have started a panic and lost them major dough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I'm not so sure after my experience with the great south Florida hailstorm of 2011 (http://www.srh.noaa....fl/?n=12Jun2011), but I'll take your word for it since it looks like you specialize in this. I gotta feeling the only reason we're seeing every other insurance council put their guess in at this point is they were forced to by the $2 billion false estimate, which could have started a panic and lost them major dough. Again, Florida is not Texas, or anywhere else for that matter. Our housing costs and appraised values have remain extremely stable when other areas increased in appraised value prior to the housing bubble collaspe. This is one of the reason folks outside of Texas find it attractive from an economic standpoint. The original news story was meant to be a 'headline grabber'. Nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Why do you disagree with the Texas Insurance Council if they say 900 million? You can see that they have increased it from the initial 400 million. I would. They're insurers so they'll overestimate to raise premiums next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 I would. They're insurers so they'll overestimate to raise premiums next year. It's pretty much a given that rates will keep going up and policies will be dropped regardless of any initial damage estimates. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47006734/ns/business/t/us-insurers-rethink-coverage-after-weather-disaster-payouts/#.T-CECGBlYjw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 How does this compare (inflation adjusted) to Mayfest hail storm? I'd think that is the biggest storm disaster in Texas history, or at least top 2. BTW, my parents were looking to replace the roof, just age, Mayfest hail storm, insurance company (Allstate?) waived deductible if they used Sears Home Roofing, a new roof for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 How does this compare (inflation adjusted) to Mayfest hail storm? I'd think that is the biggest storm disaster in Texas history, or at least top 2. BTW, my parents were looking to replace the roof, just age, Mayfest hail storm, insurance company (Allstate?) waived deductible if they used Sears Home Roofing, a new roof for free. The Mayfest Storm was 1.6 billion. In 2012 dollars, that would be 2.4 billion. Not positive but I think it was the most expensive non tropical storm in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 How does this compare (inflation adjusted) to Mayfest hail storm? I'd think that is the biggest storm disaster in Texas history, or at least top 2. BTW, my parents were looking to replace the roof, just age, Mayfest hail storm, insurance company (Allstate?) waived deductible if they used Sears Home Roofing, a new roof for free. They rank this one second costliest now. http://www.insurancecouncil.org/news/2012/06222012.pdf http://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/20120623-hailstorm-that-pounded-dallas-area-still-taking-its-toll.ece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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