icebreaker5221 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 And a favorable naming environment in Miami. I think it's fair to say these things wouldn't be named 5-10 years ago. Not saying it's right or wrong, it's just the new normal. Better than years like 73 or 75 where they named every region of persistent convection a tropical depression. 28 TDs in 1975, but only 9 TSs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Better than years like 73 or 75 where they named every region of persistent convection a tropical depression. 28 TDs in 1975, but only 9 TSs! Yeah, the Neil Frank-led NHC had some interesting naming conventions with "neutercanes" back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 And a favorable naming environment in Miami. I think it's fair to say these things wouldn't be named 5-10 years ago. Not saying it's right or wrong, it's just the new normal. It is what it is PSU. NHC has validated their reasoning for calling it a tropical cyclone and I challenge you to find similar systems that have formed at such a laditude in June. I'm one of those that believes if it is a tropical cyclone, it is a tropical cyclone. Just like our current technology and understanding of atmospheric science allows us to find more tornadoes in the empty parts of the Plains states, so too does it allow us to understand tropical/subtropical cyclones more and classify them as such. Personally, I find this system really interesting in context with the first two we have had. It isn't exactly often that we have found this many occurrences of tropical cyclones this early, and it will be interesting to see if it means anything for the coming year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I'm not saying they're wrong. It could be argued that it's not tropical, it could be argued that it is. It falls on the continuum somwhere and, ultimately, NHC is the final arbiter of what is and is not a tropical cyclone on that continuum. The goalposts have clearly moved since the late 90s/early 00s, but there's nothing wrong with that. And I don't know what you are talking about with a challenge to me. Sorry I don't have a catalog of null events over the last decade lying around. I tried to make it not seem like a personal attack, from what I can tell; Chris is a very unique TS and not something as slight as a mere naming convention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Not too enthusiastic about writing advisories for this one... 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192053 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012 500 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012 ...ANOTHER HIGH-LATITUDE TROPICAL STORM FORMS...NO THREAT TO LAND... Drats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Enter a shameless bump for Conference II. Jack Beven will be discussing this very issue as our keynote speaker Saturday night: To Name Or Not To Name A Tropical Cyclone: Data And Decision Making At The National Hurricane Center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Enter a shameless bump for Conference II. Jack Beven will be discussing this very issue as our keynote speaker Saturday night: To Name Or Not To Name A Tropical Cyclone: Data And Decision Making At The National Hurricane Center Well played. Someone better get that one on film. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Well played. Someone better get that one on film. Ferril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I must be the only person on here that doesn't understand why so many are "disappointed" or "upset" when the NHC names systems like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I must be the only person on here that doesn't understand why so many are "disappointed" or "upset" when the NHC names systems like this. I can tell you exactly why I get confused (though I am neither disappointed nor upset): sometimes these type of systems (LL warm core/UL cold core/symmetric/weak temp gradient) are named, sometimes they're non-tropical, sometimes they let the local WFOs handle them. When you work in the private sector, you have to forecast NHC as much as you forecast the sensible weather. When they break from traditional naming conventions, it creates more work and confusion for my clients. Like I said above, it's really not that big of a deal. The sensible weather isn't changing. It's just a change in the naming convention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I can tell you exactly why I get confused (though I am neither disappointed nor upset): sometimes these type of systems (LL warm core/UL cold core/symmetric/weak temp gradient) are named, sometimes they're non-tropical, sometimes they let the local WFOs handle them. When you work in the private sector, you have to forecast NHC as much as you forecast the sensible weather. When they break from traditional naming conventions, it creates more work and confusion for my clients. Like I said above, it's really not that big of a deal. The sensible weather isn't changing. It's just a change in the naming convention. That makes sense... but then again, if we didn't adapt our naming/classification conventions to our ever growing understanding of the science, where would we be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I must be the only person on here that doesn't understand why so many are "disappointed" or "upset" when the NHC names systems like this. There's at least 2 of us. I think it's important for the historical record to name systems like this. It is a tropical cyclone, meets every requirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 That makes sense... but then again, if we didn't adapt our naming/classification conventions to our ever growing understanding of the science, where would we be? Sure. I'm ok with this being the new normal. After Alberto and Chris, I'm going to be much more bullish on my high latitude TCG forecasts. It's not like I got the sensible weather wrong. And to be fair, I've been out of grad school for 4 years now. I try to stay up on the literature, but maybe I missed something. From working in Dr. Evans' group in the mid-00s (which is where a lot of the CPS research was originating, as you know), this would be subtropical or non-tropical because of B and VTU, but things change. There's at least 2 of us. I think it's important for the historical record to name systems like this. It is a tropical cyclone, meets every requirement. Well, except the weak temperature gradient normal to the motion vector and cold core aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 There's at least 2 of us. I think it's important for the historical record to name systems like this. It is a tropical cyclone, meets every requirement. I'm never disappointed. In fact, it's actually kind of fun to see a certain private met go on another ever-predictable tweet-rant whenever something like this occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Pluto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I'm never disappointed. In fact, it's actually kind of fun to see a certain private met go on another ever-predictable tweet-rant whenever something like this occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltysenior Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 And a favorable naming environment in Miami. I think it's fair to say these things wouldn't be named 5-10 years ago. Not saying it's right or wrong, it's just the new normal. it's called job security Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I'm never disappointed. In fact, it's actually kind of fun to see a certain private met go on another ever-predictable tweet-rant whenever something like this occurs. Wxbell may be upset, but now my 2/0/0 for June just might be a winner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 it's called job security Same could be said about WeatherBell as a whole. Bastardi has to trash someone and blame them for naming a questionable cyclone, just so he has a backup if his 'outlook' fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Wxbell may be upset, but now my 2/0/0 for June just might be a winner... My 0/0/0....not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Interesting tweet Ryan Maue @RyanMaue Just note to NHC, FSU cyclone phase space diagnostics are 500 km radius products, too large scale to adequately describe #Christhermodyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 All that's missing is a Calamity loop. Hoping for some body surfable swells from Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 GFS deepens it as an extratropical storm. Then it does a phase360 with the shortwave behind it kind of like the perfect storm. This type of total phase usually only happens when there's blocking to the north to keep the southern disturbance from escaping. There a pretty good block to the NW of this storm, it still may have an Easterly escape route. Would be a cool storm if it was over Philly. http://www.meteo.psu...2z/gfsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Well, except the weak temperature gradient normal to the motion vector and cold core aloft. With this much persistent deep convection in a tight circulation do you still stand by the above statement? http://www.ssd.noaa....h-avn-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 They named TS Chris over 23C waters at almost 40N? WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 They named TS Chris over 23C waters at almost 40N? WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 With this much persistent deep convection in a tight circulation do you still stand by the above statement? http://www.ssd.noaa....h-avn-long.html Yup. Looks like temp gradient got weaker overnight, but winds still increase with height above 600mb. I don't understand what deep convection and tight circulations have to do with what I said. MCCs have deep convection and tight circulations, but are still cold core and have temperature gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 That makes sense... but then again, if we didn't adapt our naming/classification conventions to our ever growing understanding of the science, where would we be? I agree. Only problem is that in the real world, people will believe claims that the weather is becoming more viral in nature, and thus increasing insurance rates for the average person. So even though naming storms can and are justified, it has allowed some (insurance companies) to rake homeowners over the coals with false claims of increased risk. As you said, the Chris' of the world have always been there, they're just named now. This to me is the only valid reason to be upset over naming storms. See relate articles, especially the second one: http://www.myrtlebea...ss-leaders.html http://insurancenews...344996&type=all Exerpt: Today, it's not unusual for some Lowcountry homeowners to pay more in insurance than property taxes. How did it get so bad? The S.C. Insurance News Service, a nonprofit group funded by insurance companies, cites a mix of factors: dramatic growth in coastal South Carolina; rising property values; increased building costs; and new meteorological predictions that the world has entered a period of higher storm frequencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Chris looks fairly good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Visiteur Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 They named TS Chris over 23C waters at almost 40N? WTF? Vertical temperature gradient in the troposphere is just as important as SSTs in permitting a disturbance to undergo tropical development. The upper-level environment is colder than usual in the vicinity of TC Chris, if you glance at the dynamic tropopause map in the link below. A steep enough gradient can allow convective growth necessary to sustain a tropical disturbance. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dt/dt_namer_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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