phil882 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Thought I'd start this thread... its time is probably limited as it continues to move to the northeast, but its looking fairly impressive on visible today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Does look very ineteresting... And it does have time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Looking at the modeled QPF and MSLP fields, it looks like it has about 18-24 hours to acquire a name before fizzling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I hope so, that Mandarin may be my only chance of getting my June 2/0/0 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 The 12z GFS generally drags this across 40N for quite some time and waters are just marginally warm for TC formation. I think it will be named as a subtropical and tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Could be a nice little bump to get the folk talking about how we have had three systems before July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 My guess is 40-50% at 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Omg, this is my favorite development area. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Omg, this is my favorite development area. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Omg, this is my favorite development area. Love it. weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 50% it is TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW HAS GRADUALLY BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I think this'll be upgraded this afternoon or tonight, impressive visible satellite presentation. I wrote up an analysis on my blog http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I'm liking the way this looks... the central thunderstorm development is definitely on the increase, and it seems to be becoming more warm core by the hour. We could probably see Subtropical Storm Chris by either 11 PM or 5 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 :fizzle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 It's down but I wouldn't say it's out, def no 11 pm upgrade though. The weather does what it wants, regardless of what meteorologists think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Nice burst of thunderstorms on the NW side, but still a bit sheared. If this isn't upgraded operationally, it may be posthumously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 This is why I hate these types of short-duration systems. Puffs up by the diurnal max and cr@ps out like clockwork by the diurnal minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 This is why I hate these types of short-duration systems. Puffs up by the diurnal max and cr@ps out like clockwork by the diurnal minimum. Except this system seems to be peaking convectively in the early to late afternoon is traditionally considered the diurnal minimum. Shear was the main culprit that disrupted the convective pattern last night, and now that we have seem some temporary relaxation, the increased temperatures gradient between the colder than normal mid-upper atmosphere with the marginal sea surface temperatures is allowing for moderate convection to develop over the center. The convection is a bit deeper today than yesterday and I think this system has a 6-12 hour window to reach STS or TS strength if the convection can persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I think shear has been the main culprit in the intensity change of this disturbance as well, and now shear is below 10 kt and it's over the Gulf Stream, so things are looking up. Satellite presentation is better than ever. NHC is probably wary to pull the trigger until tonight considering the system's behavior yesterday, but I'd be surprised if this wasn't classified tonight. More details on my blog: http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Still looks like a warm occlusion connected to fronts to me (see Shapiro-Keyser cyclone model), but it is warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al032012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201206191948 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END CHRIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Really? STS or TS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Really? STS or TS? Rumblings are that it's fully tropical based on a T1.5 estimate earlier. AL, 03, 201206191745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 3940N, 5800W, , 2, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, GS, VI, 3, 1515 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=1.5 BO CBND MET=0.0 PT=0.0 FTBO DT 19/1745 UTC 39.4N 58.0W T1.5/1.5 95L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Here is a more detailed satellite loop, movements appear erratic but it's not moving northeast anytime soon based on the synoptic setup. http://wwwghcc.msfc....=95&numframes=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Not too enthusiastic about writing advisories for this one... 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192053 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012 500 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012 ...ANOTHER HIGH-LATITUDE TROPICAL STORM FORMS...NO THREAT TO LAND... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 With the switch to a -NAO and transition to Niño, E coast/mid latitude TS/STS have found good conditions for their genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 With the switch to a -NAO and transition to Niño, E coast/mid latitude TS/STS have found good conditions for their genesis. And a favorable naming environment in Miami. I think it's fair to say these things wouldn't be named 5-10 years ago. Not saying it's right or wrong, it's just the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 And a favorable naming environment in Miami. I think it's fair to say these things wouldn't be named 5-10 years ago. Not saying it's right or wrong, it's just the new normal. It is what it is PSU. NHC has validated their reasoning for calling it a tropical cyclone and I challenge you to find similar systems that have formed at such a laditude in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 It is what it is PSU. NHC has validated their reasoning for calling it a tropical cyclone and I challenge you to find similar systems that have formed at such a laditude in June. I'm not saying they're wrong. It could be argued that it's not tropical, it could be argued that it is. It falls on the continuum somwhere and, ultimately, NHC is the final arbiter of what is and is not a tropical cyclone on that continuum. The goalposts have clearly moved since the late 90s/early 00s, but there's nothing wrong with that. And I don't know what you are talking about with a challenge to me. Sorry I don't have a catalog of null events over the last decade lying around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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